1306 Russell Dr · Hayes, MI 48625

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 756 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1958 0.46 ac lot $119/sqft · 6% below area Est $96k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming, well-located home on the edge of town with easy access to Budd Lake. This cozy 756 sq ft residence sits on a large, fenced lot with mature shade trees—perfect for pets—and a backyard fire pit for evening bonfires. Interior highlights: vaulted ceilings that create an open, airy feel; a bright kitchen with range and refrigerator; a spacious living room with dual ceiling fans; and a front bounce room with a wood stove for added warmth. One bedroom offers a generous closet; the bathroom features ceramic tile. Detached garage includes electricity and a wood stove. Natural gas heat is a standout feature. Ideal for a first-time buyer or someone looking to downsize in a desirable location. Call today to learn more.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Large fenced lot
• Mature shade trees

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO BUDD LAKE
• LARGE FENCED LOT
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• BACKYARD FIRE PIT
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• BRIGHT KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $84k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harrison Community Schools (town): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #457 of 540 in MI (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 238 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Clare County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clare County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $84,366 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.30%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,975
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -6.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1268 N Clare Ave	0.16mi	2/1.0	816 (+8%)	5mo	$100,000	$123	75
1364 James St	0.07mi	2/1.0	864 (+14%)	8mo	$40,000	$46	67
1024 Burrington St	0.30mi	1/1.0 (-1)	648 (-14%)	22mo	$43,000	$66	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-6,186
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $5,293
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48625

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $844 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $304/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $676

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,900 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,900 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-03-30
    listed $89,900 Active 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    Charming, well-located home on the edge of town with easy access to Budd Lake. This cozy 756 sq ft residence sits on a large, fenced lot with mature shade trees—perfect for pets—and a backyard fire pit for evening bonfires. Interior highlights: vaulted ceilings that create an open, airy feel; a bright kitchen with range and refrigerator; a spacious living room with dual ceiling fans; and a front bounce room with a wood stove for added warmth. One bedroom offers a generous closet; the bathroom features ceramic tile. Detached garage includes electricity and a wood stove. Natural gas heat is a standout feature. Ideal for a first-time buyer or someone looking to downsize in a desirable location. Call today to learn more.

17. 2026-03-02
    historical
18. 2026-01-31
    status Active
19. 2026-01-06
    status Pending
20. 2025-07-01
    price $77,000
21. 2025-03-25
    listed $83,900 Active
22. 2021-07-30
    soldstatus $68,000
23. 2021-05-24
    status Pending
24. 2021-05-17
    listed $68,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $304 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $844 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: +$540/yr (+$45/mo · 177.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$304
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$810
• − Management: −$810
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $99
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$24
• After-tax cash flow: $1,563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2617820
• Math proficiency: 17% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $30,377
• Composite: 18.07/100
• National rank: #8977
• State rank: #457 of 540 in MI

Livability — Hayes

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,939

Population outlook (Clare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,283 people
• By 2030: 28,199 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 25,722 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 23,372 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 18,569 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 14,320 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clare

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.5% · R 68.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.4pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.8 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+4.8 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.38%
• Current HPI: 234.9586
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+32.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-31 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-06 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $77,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-03-25 Listed $83,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-24 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-05-17 Listed $68,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $304 · -64.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.