Is 70200 Dillon Rd #518 in Desert Edge, CA a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it B with a 22.6% cap rate and $582/mo modeled cash flow at a $52,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 70200 Dillon Rd #518?

The modeled cap rate is 22.6% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,350/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

B Composite 72.32

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +30.0/30.0
ARV discount +12.3/15.0
1% rule +10.0/10.0
DSCR +10.0/10.0
Schools +4.0/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.4/5.0
Appreciation +2.5/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Manufactured-home adj. -6.3

$52,000

70200 Dillon Rd #518 · Desert Edge, CA 92241

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 550 sqft · Manufactured · 15 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2004 Good condition $95/sqft · 11% below area Est $58k · 11% under ↓ 21% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Caliente Springs Resort is an exclusive, gated community for ages 55 and up. This spotless 2004 Cavco Park Model offers around 550 sq. ft. of living space with one bedroom and one bathroom. It sits on the lush 8th hole of the golf course, surrounded by beautiful local scenery, mountains, and ponds--all of which you can enjoy from your fully covered deck, perfect for relaxing in peace. Updates include new flooring, a new deck, an upgraded bathroom with a tiled walk-in shower and an energy-efficient toilet, a walk-in closet, paved parking, landscape irrigation, and more. A golf cart is also included for convenient travel around the park.

Key facts

Gated community
Upgraded bathroom
Tiled walk-in shower

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $52k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $582 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $52k).
Recommended offer: $51k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 22.6% vs local median 10.8% in Desert Edge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 68/100 on livability (#297 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D-, employment F.
Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Julius Corsini Elementary (409 students, 98% FRL); Desert Springs Middle (803 students, 99% FRL); Desert Hot Springs High (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 1,742 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 73% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 284 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 114d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $360 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 4→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,220 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 2.60% ✓
Cap rate: 22.61%
Cash-on-cash: 58.27%
DSCR: 3.59
GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $58,150
List price: $52,000
Delta: -10.58%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
70200 Dillon Rd #416	0.00mi	1/1.0	550 (0%)	11mo	$48,000	$87	91
70200 Dillon Rd #654	0.00mi	2/1.0 (+1)	550 (0%)	6mo	$97,500	$177	90
70200 Dillon Rd #320	0.01mi	1/1.0	550 (0%)	13mo	$50,000	$91	88
70200 Dillon Rd #213	0.01mi	1/1.0	500 (-9%)	0mo	$49,000	$98	84
70200 Dillon Rd #97	0.00mi	1/1.0	600 (+9%)	8mo	$20,500	$34	78
70200 Dillon Rd #422	0.27mi	1/1.0	600 (+9%)	3mo	$35,600	$59	70
17640 Corkill Rd #64	0.61mi	1/1.0	560 (+2%)	2mo	$32,000	$57	67
70200 Dillon Rd #215	0.27mi	1/1.0	600 (+9%)	7mo	$65,000	$108	66
70200 Dillon Rd #590	0.00mi	2/1.0 (+1)	625 (+14%)	7mo	$61,500	$98	66
70200 Dillon Rd #605	0.27mi	1/1.0	600 (+9%)	8mo	$97,500	$163	66
70200 Dillon Rd #446	0.17mi	2/1.5 (+1)	600 (+9%)	7mo	$75,000	$125	64
70200 Dillon Rd #36	0.27mi	1/1.0	600 (+9%)	11mo	$65,000	$108	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 45.5%
Equity multiple: 2.97×
Total profit: $28,729
Equity at exit: $7,753

10-year hold

IRR: 51.4%
Equity multiple: 6.02×
Total profit: $73,130
Equity at exit: $4,496

Cash invested: $14,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 21 active · 3 under contract
Months of supply: 42.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $59,900 ($109/sqft)
Median days on market: 153 d
This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -2.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92241

Home prices YoY: -22.8%
Active inventory: 284
Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,350 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$273
Tax est. 1.5%: −$65 /mo · $780/yr
Insurance: −$22
Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
HOA: −$0
Lot rent leased land?: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
Net cashflow: $582

Break-even live

Break-even rent $613

Max offer price $52,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $618	-5% $600	+0% $582	+5% $564	+10% $546
Rent	-10% $475	-5% $529	+0% $582	+5% $635	+10% $688
Rate	-1.0pp $608	-0.5pp $595	base $582	+0.5pp $568	+1.0pp $555

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $13,000
Closing costs: $1,560
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
69360 Poolside Dr Dsrt Hot Spgs, CA	2.0	2.0	648	$1,700	$2.62	7d	1	0.76mi
70875 Dillon Rd Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	2.0	720	$2,200	$3.06	139d	1	0.92mi
15935 Mary Cir Desert Hot Springs, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,350	$2.45	113d	1	1.29mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Property sold furnished (excludes TV)Property offered 'as is' within a planned development
Financial info: Monthly space rent listed (park information) — $950 (space rent)Listing terms: Cash or submitPossession at close of escrowRental restrictions apply
HOA & community: No monthly association fees listedSenior communityCommunity amenities: community mailbox, trailer storage available, pickleball courts, golf course within development, dog park

Exterior

Parking: Assigned parkingDriveway parking (2 total parking spaces)
Security: Gated community with resident manager
Utilities: Water: Water district (Mission)Sewer: Septic tankHas water wellPUD: YesSpace rent includes trash
Home design: Park model (Cavco)Single-story (ground level)
Construction: Siding exteriorPier jacks and tie down foundationPark model manufactured home (2004 manufacture date)
Exterior features: Covered deck/patioAccessory building (shed)Premium lotFenced community poolCommunity pool (in-ground, heated)Community security features including gated community, resident manager, and community securityOn golf courseLevel lot on public streetRoad frontage: CompositionLeisure areas face east/south; front door faces westDetached property

Interior

Kitchen: Laminate countersGas cooktopGas ovenMicrowaveRefrigerator
Bedrooms: Bedroom on the main floor
Flooring: Laminate flooring
Bathrooms: One full bath with tile shower and shower stall
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Air conditioningCeiling fans
Interior features: Vaulted ceilingsBlinds and drapesGround-level entry with stepsFurnished
Laundry & utility: Community laundryWater heater unit

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $52,000 Active 15 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $52,000 Active 14 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $52,000 Active 13 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $52,000 Active 12 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $52,000 Active 11 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $52,000 Active 10 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $52,000 Active 9 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $52,000 Active 8 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $52,000 Active 7 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $52,000 Active 6 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $52,000 Active 5 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $52,000 Active 4 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $52,000 Active 3 DOM
2026-09-11

pricedays on marketlisting id $52,000 Active 2 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $67,500 Active 108 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $67,500 Active 107 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $67,500 Active 106 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $67,500 Active 105 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $67,500 Active 102 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $67,500 Active 100 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $67,500 Active 99 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $67,500 Active 97 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $67,500 Active 95 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $67,500 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $67,500 Active 93 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $67,500 Active 92 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $67,500 Active 91 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $67,500 Active 89 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $67,500 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $67,500 Active 87 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $67,500 Active 86 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $67,500 Active 85 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $67,500 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $67,500 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $67,500 Active 82 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $67,500 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $67,500 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $67,500 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $67,500 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $67,500 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $67,500 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $67,500 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $67,500 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $67,500 Active 72 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $67,500 Active 71 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $67,500 Active 70 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $67,500 Active 69 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $67,500 Active 68 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $67,500 Active 67 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $67,500 Active 65 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥109°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 1/10 Low
🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $16,199
− Mortgage interest: −$2,913
− Property taxes: −$780
− Insurance: −$1,762
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
− Management: −$1,296
− Depreciation: −$1,513
Taxable income: $6,639

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,593
After-tax cash flow: $5,389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $2,750–$8,250 screening

This 2004 Cavco Park Model is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a fully covered deck, a lush lawn, and a well-maintained interior. The property is move-in ready and has a good potential for value increase with minor cosmetic upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the property's value. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained lawn and landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and increase the property's resale value. ↑
Resale Upgrading the bathroom fixtures — Upgrading the bathroom fixtures can make the property more appealing to potential buyers and increase its resale value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Julius Corsini Elementary Middle Desert Springs Middle High Desert Hot Springs High F CA #532/1,170 Nat'l #8,293/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Palm Springs Unified
NCES district ID: 0629550
Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income: $43,638
Composite: 26.76/100
National rank: #7131
State rank: #328 of 517 in CA

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Desert Edge

Score: 68/100
State rank: #297
US rank: #9953

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Desert Edge, CA
County: Riverside · 2,664,475 people
Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
Population (ZIP): 8,624
Household income: $45,210
Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 16% Asian 2% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 38% Chinese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -118.23%
Current HPI: 400.5663
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Technology	27	$1,492B
#4 Apple Cupertino $391.0B #7 Alphabet Mountain View $350.0B #22 Meta Platforms Menlo Park $164.5B #31 NVIDIA Santa Clara $130.5B #83 Cisco Systems San Jose $53.8B #84 HP Inc Palo Alto $53.6B #86 Intel Santa Clara $53.1B #88 Broadcom Palo Alto $52.4B #109 Qualcomm San Diego $39.0B #112 Salesforce San Francisco $38.4B #140 Applied Materials Santa Clara $27.2B #155 AMD Santa Clara $22.7B #330 Intuit Mountain View $16.3B #242 Lam Research Fremont $15.8B #252 Western Digital San Jose $13.0B #366 ServiceNow Santa Clara $11.0B #282 KLA Corporation Milpitas $10.8B #405 Workday Pleasanton $7.9B #302 Arista Networks Santa Clara $6.7B #365 NetApp San Jose $6.5B #352 Synopsys Sunnyvale $6.1B #331 Autodesk San Francisco $6.0B #395 Juniper Networks Sunnyvale $5.6B #403 Cadence Design Systems San Jose $4.6B #430 Veeva Systems Pleasanton $2.4B #397 Teradata San Diego $1.8B #461 Dolby Laboratories San Francisco $1.3B
Financial Services	3	$174B
#33 Wells Fargo San Francisco $125.4B #272 Visa San Francisco $35.9B #308 LPL Financial Holdings San Diego $12.3B
Retail	3	$44B
#162 Ross Stores Dublin $20.9B #231 Gap San Francisco $15.6B #323 Williams-Sonoma San Francisco $7.7B
Insurance	3	$26B
#241 Pacific Life Newport Beach $13.4B #293 First American Financial Santa Ana $7.7B #482 Mercury General Los Angeles $5.2B
Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
#46 Walt Disney Burbank $91.4B #263 Live Nation Entertainment Beverly Hills $23.2B
Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B
#126 Amgen Thousand Oaks $33.3B #137 Gilead Sciences Foster City $28.4B

Price history

-20.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

2026-04-20 Listed $67,500 GPSMLS
2026-04-14 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
2026-01-28 Price Changed $73,000 GPSMLS
2025-11-13 Listed $85,000 GPSMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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