408 Rogers Ave · Hampton, VA 23664

$290,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1987 Est $501k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious home offering approximately 2800 sq ft with 5 bedrooms and 3 baths. Short sale-subject to third party approval. Property being sold strictly as-is.

Key facts

• Built 1987
• Listed 50 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA/association fees indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Driveway parking spaces
• Utilities: City/county water; City/county sewer; Gas water heater
• Home design: Detached traditional-style home; 2 stories with 2 living levels; Simple ownership
• Construction: Crawl foundation; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Wood siding; Wire and wood fencing; Lot front approximately 50 ft

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom and full bathroom are not present
• Flooring: Bamboo flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Window/wall cooling
• Interior features: Pull-down attic stairs; Walk-in attic; 10 total rooms; Attic; Balcony; First-floor bedroom/full bath not present
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $568 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).
• Recommended offer: $281k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.5% in Hampton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#133 in VA, #4,302 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Hampton City Public School District (urban): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #40 of 131 in VA (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Francis Asbury Elementary (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A-, #313 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 450 students, 84% FRL); Phoebus High (math 57% / reading 76%, grade B, #195 of 319 statewide, top 62%, 1,365 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 49% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 68 units permitted in Hampton city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hampton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $290k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.22%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $501,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Channel Ln	0.50mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,782 (-1%)	2mo	$800,000	$288	69
1769 Lafayette Dr	0.37mi	5/3.5	2,618 (-6%)	1mo	$450,000	$172	69
28 Sarfan Dr	0.37mi	5/2.5	2,919 (+4%)	6mo	$425,000	$146	68
1741 Lafayette Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,950 (+5%)	6mo	$489,900	$166	68
205 Benthall Rd	0.15mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,422 (-14%)	1mo	$423,000	$175	63
14 Jayne Lee Dr	0.32mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,515 (-10%)	1mo	$450,000	$179	60
13 Fields Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,539 (-9%)	3mo	$442,200	$174	58
1777 Carriage Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,500 (-11%)	2mo	$489,000	$196	58
30 Bay Front Pl	0.68mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,710 (-3%)	1mo	$1,050,000	$387	57
56 Chowning Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,383 (-15%)	8mo	$400,000	$168	54
4 Channel Ln	0.54mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,568 (-8%)	6mo	$850,000	$331	51
112 Silver Isles Blvd	0.69mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,520 (-10%)	1mo	$499,900	$198	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-10,745
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $37,476
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23664

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,272 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$319 /mo · $3,833/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$687
• Net cashflow: $568

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,553

Max offer price $290,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $732	-5% $650	+0% $568	+5% $486	+10% $404
Rent	-10% $310	-5% $439	+0% $568	+5% $697	+10% $827
Rate	-1.0pp $714	-0.5pp $642	base $568	+0.5pp $493	+1.0pp $417

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1757 Lafayette Dr Hampton, VA	5.0	4.0	2873	$3,000	$1.04	44d	1	0.30mi
428 Fort Worth St Hampton, VA	5.0	2.5	2420	$2,995	$1.24	4d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-13
   listed Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-12
   listed $290,000
4. 2017-04-12
   status Under Contract
5. 2017-04-10
   soldstatus $155,000
6. 2016-09-27
   price $151,900
7. 2016-06-28
   listed $162,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,833 · $319/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,833 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$3,833
• − Insurance: −$2,116
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,141
• − Management: −$3,141
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable income: $2,350
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$564
• After-tax cash flow: $6,255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101800
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,089
• Composite: 55.19/100
• National rank: #1272
• State rank: #40 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hampton

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #4302

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton, VA
• County: Hampton City · 132,421 people
• City population: 132,421
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 9,643
• Household income: $87,412
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 394.0

Population outlook (Hampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,055 people
• By 2030: 131,753 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 125,017 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 116,825 · -12.9%
• By 2075: 97,033 · -27.6%
• By 2100: 76,188 · -43.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 24% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Arabic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hampton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.9) · D 69.2% · R 29.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.0pp no change · 2008: 38.9pp · 2024: 39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.9 2020: D+42.2 2016: D+37.8 2012: D+45.4 2008: D+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.71%
• Current HPI: 238.491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+79.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed — REINMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $290,000 REINMLS
• 2017-04-12 Pending — REINMLS
• 2017-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-27 Price Changed $151,900 REINMLS
• 2016-06-28 Listed $162,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,833 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.