10947 Old Gainesville Rd · Jacksonville, FL 32221

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,087 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1998 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

IMMACULATE MOBILE HOME ON TWO LOTS COMPLETELY FENCED. 2 STORAGE SHEDS, 2 CAR-CARPORT AND RV PORT

Key facts

• Outdoor entertaining
• New water heater
• No hoa

Tags

• TWO FULLY FENCED LOTS
• NEWLY REDONE SEPTIC SYSTEM
• NEW WATER HEATER
• 1 CAR CARPORT RV PARKING
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING
• NO HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,900 (4.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.72%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-22,068
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-6,894
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32221

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,099 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,052/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,792

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2167 Kistlers Ridge Way Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1456	$1,900	$1.30	14d	1	0.07mi
2210 Kistlers Ridge Way Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1456	$1,846	$1.27	23d	1	0.15mi
2625 Fox Creek Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	2018	$2,040	$1.01	23d	1	0.61mi
2081 Chaffee Rd S Unit 43 Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1904	$1,829	$0.96	4d	1	0.63mi
2300 Justin Lake Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	2539	$2,360	$0.93	3d	1	0.66mi
2346 Adams Lake Blvd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	2251	$2,100	$0.93	14d	1	0.75mi
2012 James Wilson Way Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	2038	$1,989	$0.98	12d	1	0.85mi
2274 Tyson Lake Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,975	$1.15	3d	1	1.00mi
10367 Shelby Creek Rd S Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	2470	$2,325	$0.94	16d	1	1.01mi
2514 Paris Mill Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,096	$1.06	7d	1	1.02mi
10355 Shelby Creek Rd S Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1917	$2,100	$1.10	20d	1	1.03mi
1916 Constitutional Republic Pl Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	1975	$2,029	$1.03	1d	1	1.06mi
1916 Allegiance Pl Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1439	$2,100	$1.46	3d	12	1.15mi
1832 James Madison Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1716	$2,010	$1.17	14d	1	1.18mi
11269 Revolutionary Way Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,919	$1.12	7d	1	1.19mi
1951 April Oaks Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1705	$1,879	$1.10	4d	1	1.24mi
2067 Tyson Lake Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$1,935	$1.24	1d	1	1.27mi
1362 Panther Preserve Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1599	$2,400	$1.50	17d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-07
   soldstatus $219,900
2. 2026-02-11
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-28
   listed $219,900 Active
4. 2022-10-28
   soldstatus $100,000
5. 2001-10-12
   soldstatus $88,500
6. 2001-10-05
   soldstatus $88,500 96-char remark

   Show marketing remark (96 chars)

   IMMACULATE MOBILE HOME ON TWO LOTS COMPLETELY FENCED. 2 STORAGE SHEDS, 2 CAR-CARPORT AND RV PORT

7. 2001-09-26
   historical 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   THIS IS A WELL CARED FOR HOME,READY TO MOVE IN. THE WELL IS TWO YRS OLD-A/CUNIT IS NEW. THE GATE TO THE PROPERTY IS AN ELECTRIC GATE. THERE IS 2 WORK SHEDS AND A RV CARPORT. THIS PROPERTY SHOWS WELL. ADD 5,000 FOR FHA OR VA SET UP. LOCKBOX IS ON WATER FAUCET UNDER THE CARPORT. SECURITY SYSTEM WILL BE LEFT OFF.

8. 2001-09-09
   listed $88,500 96-char remark

   Show marketing remark (96 chars)

   IMMACULATE MOBILE HOME ON TWO LOTS COMPLETELY FENCED. 2 STORAGE SHEDS, 2 CAR-CARPORT AND RV PORT

9. 2001-06-27
   listed $91,000 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   THIS IS A WELL CARED FOR HOME,READY TO MOVE IN. THE WELL IS TWO YRS OLD-A/CUNIT IS NEW. THE GATE TO THE PROPERTY IS AN ELECTRIC GATE. THERE IS 2 WORK SHEDS AND A RV CARPORT. THIS PROPERTY SHOWS WELL. ADD 5,000 FOR FHA OR VA SET UP. LOCKBOX IS ON WATER FAUCET UNDER THE CARPORT. SECURITY SYSTEM WILL BE LEFT OFF.

10. 1996-09-18
    soldstatus $20,000
11. 1976-07-01
    soldstatus $8,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,052 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,052 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$2,052
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,015
• − Management: −$2,015
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$708
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$170
• After-tax cash flow: $3,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,833
• Household income: $82,969
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 516.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.74%
• Current HPI: 263.7591
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.12%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2549.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $219,900 Public Records
• 2026-02-11 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $219,900 realMLS
• 2022-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2001-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $88,500 Public Records
• 2001-10-05 Sold (MLS) $88,500 realMLS
• 2001-09-26 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2001-09-09 Listed $88,500 realMLS
• 2001-06-27 Listed $91,000 realMLS
• 1996-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1976-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,052 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.