5104 Rosado Run · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$414,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · SingleFamily · 91 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 9,292 sqft lot $274/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. MOVE IN READY! EXTENDED REDTAG SALE - Receive up to $30,000 towards closing costs, $5,000 towards upgrades and special interest rates with the use of our preferred lender - Now through Sunday, May 3rd. This all-concrete block constructed, one-story, two-car garage layout optimizes living space with an open concept kitchen overlooking the living area and dining room, which includes extended tile. The well-appointed kitchen comes with all appliances, including a refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave. Bedroom 1 with ensuite is located at the back of the home for privacy. Two additional bedrooms share the second bathroom. The third bedroom is locat

Key facts

• 9,292 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $1,242; Total annual fees: $3,288; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by ICON Management Services Florida, LLC; Monthly HOA fee $274 (required, approval required); Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, and sidewalks; Deed-restricted community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20x20)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Under construction; New construction; East-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by D.R. Horton (model: CALI)
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Sprinkler (metered); Irrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. The $414,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $460,656.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $414k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-284 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $402k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $377k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1164 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($377k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $376,740 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.65%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $460,656
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18420 Canopy Pl	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,828 (0%)	1mo	$425,000	$232	94
17737 Canopy Pl	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (-8%)	2mo	$367,500	$220	65
18248 Beach Ranch Ter	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,816 (-1%)	0mo	$448,725	$247	59
18306 Beach Ranch Ter	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,816 (-1%)	1mo	$458,075	$252	59
18322 Beach Ranch Ter	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (+1%)	1mo	$476,990	$259	59
18244 Beach Ranch Ter	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (+1%)	2mo	$441,000	$239	58
17719 Cantarina Cv	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,045 (+12%)	1mo	$460,000	$225	56
18127 Cherished Loop	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,671 (-9%)	1mo	$459,999	$275	51
18130 Cherished Loop	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,671 (-9%)	1mo	$420,000	$251	50
18142 Cherished Loop	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,671 (-9%)	0mo	$429,999	$257	50
4835 Ivy Pearl Way	0.65mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,056 (+12%)	0mo	$699,000	$340	39
19406 Indian Rock Pl	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,080 (+14%)	0mo	$685,000	$329	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-104,307
• Equity at exit: $68,685

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-158,719
• Equity at exit: $39,829

Cash invested: $128,984 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1164
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,016 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,416
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$576 /mo · $6,910/yr
• Insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$274
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$843
• Net cashflow: $-284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,377

Max offer price $419,490

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $34	-5% $-125	+0% $-284	+5% $-444	+10% $-603
Rent	-10% $-602	-5% $-443	+0% $-284	+5% $-126	+10% $33
Rate	-1.0pp $-53	-0.5pp $-167	base $-284	+0.5pp $-404	+1.0pp $-525

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $115,164
• Closing costs: $13,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18121 Metado Dr Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	1827	$2,900	$1.59	25d	1	0.09mi
18002 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2371	$3,000	$1.27	5d	1	0.22mi
17915 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,999	$1.47	25d	1	0.25mi
17630 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,550	$1.36	25d	1	0.43mi
17605 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$3,500	$1.71	25d	1	0.47mi
5623 Mulligan Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	2359	$14,000	$5.93	25d	1	0.50mi
17525 Hickok Belt Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2250	$7,800	$3.47	25d	1	0.52mi
19156 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$5,000	$2.23	25d	1	0.55mi
19023 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$5,500	$2.45	5d	1	0.55mi
5612 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$12,500	$5.11	25d	1	0.56mi
5628 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2252	$4,595	$2.04	5d	1	0.56mi
5420 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2445	$6,000	$2.45	25d	1	0.56mi
17467 Hickok Belt Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$12,500	$5.56	25d	1	0.58mi
17419 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,595	$1.27	18d	1	0.66mi
17220 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,800	$1.53	25d	1	0.71mi
5720 Cheech Gln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$5,500	$2.45	25d	1	0.73mi
5725 Cheech Gln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1850	$12,000	$6.49	25d	1	0.75mi
5907 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2246	$6,800	$3.03	25d	1	0.94mi
5304 Grove Mill Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2056	$3,200	$1.56	25d	1	0.98mi
5805 Wake Forest Run #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$4,250	$2.01	18d	1	1.02mi
5947 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2200	$13,000	$5.91	25d	1	1.03mi
5815 Wake Forest Run #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2108	$3,500	$1.66	25d	1	1.07mi
6026 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$12,000	$5.34	25d	1	1.10mi
5831 Wake Forest Run #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$6,995	$4.02	25d	1	1.15mi
16464 Whale Grey Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$5,000	$2.05	25d	1	1.19mi
18117 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$4,000	$2.24	25d	1	1.20mi
18017 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$6,000	$3.36	25d	1	1.21mi
5915 Wake Forest Run #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2108	$4,800	$2.28	25d	1	1.21mi
17815 Gawthrop Dr #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$7,500	$4.20	25d	1	1.23mi
5921 Wake Forest Run Unit 1 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$3,500	$1.96	25d	1	1.24mi
18028 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1310	$6,000	$4.58	18d	6	1.26mi
18114 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1310	$7,000	$5.34	4d	3	1.26mi
18114 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1300	$7,000	$5.38	25d	5	1.26mi
17510 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1196	$6,200	$5.18	5d	5	1.27mi
17902 Gawthrop Dr Unit 1546175P Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,965	$2.32	18d	1	1.28mi
17810 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1453	$4,000	$2.75	21d	2	1.28mi
17707 Gulf Ranch Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$4,800	$2.35	5d	1	1.28mi
17902 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1213	$6,500	$5.36	18d	4	1.28mi
17704 Gawthrop Dr Unit 1545826P Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$3,163	$2.21	16d	1	1.29mi
17520 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1214	$6,000	$4.94	25d	2	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $274 · $3,288/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   price $414,000
3. 2026-04-22
   price $417,000
4. 2026-04-15
   price $419,000
5. 2026-04-09
   price $422,000
6. 2026-03-25
   price $424,000
7. 2026-03-13
   price $427,000
8. 2026-02-02
   listed $428,305 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,198
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,804
• − Property taxes: −$6,910
• − Insurance: −$2,303
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,856
• − Management: −$3,856
• − HOA: −$3,288
• − Depreciation: −$13,401
• Taxable loss: −$11,220
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,693
• After-tax cash flow: $-721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This newly constructed single-family home is move-in ready with a clean exterior and a well-appointed interior, making it an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhancing the landscaping and curb appeal can increase both the resale and rental value of the property.
• Both Interior finishing touches — Finishing the interior with paint, flooring, and fixtures can significantly boost the home's appeal and value.
• Both Appliance installation — Installing the appliances mentioned in the listing will make the home fully move-in ready and ready for occupancy.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhancing the landscaping and curb appeal can increase both the resale and rental value of the property. ↑
• Both Interior finishing touches — Finishing the interior with paint, flooring, and fixtures can significantly boost the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Appliance installation — Installing the appliances mentioned in the listing will make the home fully move-in ready and ready for occupancy. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 815.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $414,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $417,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $419,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $422,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $424,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $427,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listed $428,305 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid