309 N Park St · Keytesville, MO 65261

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 884 sqft · Other · 23 Days on market

Built 1940 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 309 N Park St. in Keytesville, MO. This is a charming & Well-Maintained Home in a Peaceful Location! Nestled at the end of a quiet street, this inviting 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers comfort, convenience, and plenty of outdoor space to enjoy. Located within walking distance to the public park, this home sits on a spacious lot with a convenient carport for covered parking. Whether you're looking for your first home, downsizing, or searching for an investment opportunity, this charming property is one you won't want to miss!

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Carport
• Spacious lot

Tags

• QUIET STREET
• PUBLIC PARK
• SPACIOUS LOT
• CARPORT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built area above grade: 884
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Window coverings; Insulated windows; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-128/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $85k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#350 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Keytesville R-III (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #465 of 535 in MO (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Chariton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Chariton County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $84,730 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.40%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $13,117
• Equity at exit: $51,709

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $47,585
• Equity at exit: $79,690

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65261

• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $847 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $348/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $-11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $861

Max offer price $113,117

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $54	-5% $22	+0% $-11	+5% $-43	+10% $-76
Rent	-10% $-78	-5% $-44	+0% $-11	+5% $23	+10% $56
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $19	base $-11	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-28
    listed $115,000 Active
17. 2024-03-11
    soldstatus
18. 2023-01-27
    soldstatus
19. 2022-03-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $348 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,116 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$767/yr (+$64/mo · 220.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$348
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$813
• − Management: −$813
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$2,170
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$521
• After-tax cash flow: $393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keytesville R-III
• NCES district ID: 2916530
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,832
• Composite: 27.57/100
• National rank: #12352
• State rank: #465 of 535 in MO

Livability — Keytesville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #15680

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keytesville, MO
• Population (ZIP): 1,310

Population outlook (Chariton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,951 people
• By 2030: 6,557 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 5,860 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 5,246 · -24.5%
• By 2075: 4,168 · -40.0%
• By 2100: 3,187 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · German/W. Germanic 8% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chariton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.4) · D 21.4% · R 77.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.5pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -56.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.4 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+52.0 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $115,000 RCBR
• 2024-03-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-01-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $348 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.