16111 Rustic Prairie Dr · Houston, TX 77447

$264,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,030 sqft · SingleFamily · 43 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 6,090 sqft lot $130/sqft · 15% below area Est $310k · 15% under $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW! Lennar Core Watermill Collection "Littleton" Plan with Elevation "P4" in The Grand Prairie! On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Large walk-in closet
• Spacious loft

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• FIRST FLOOR OWNER SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SPACIOUS LOFT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Full ownership; Builder: Lennar Homes; Subdivision lot with concrete road and side yard
• HOA & community: Community association (CCMC) with annual fee; Association amenities: clubhouse, controlled access, playground, pickleball, pool, trails; Association fee paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway with garage door opener
• Security: Controlled access (community)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces east; Slab foundation; Brick and wood siding exterior; Built in 2025
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Sprinkler/irrigation; Porch; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Ice maker; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15x15); Bedroom on the second floor (10x10); Bedroom on the second floor (11x10); Bedroom on the second floor (15x10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas and heat pump); Central electric air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with bath; Pantry; Self-closing cabinet doors and drawers; Tub/shower; Window treatments; Loft; Living/dining room; Programmable thermostat; Ventilation
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $264k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($978/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1782 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,921 (3.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.32%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,990
• List price: $264,000
• Delta: -14.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16206 Domestic Dove Way	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,924 (-5%)	2mo	$315,990	$164	84
28807 Golden Wheat Ct	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,924 (-5%)	1mo	$259,990	$135	82
16122 Domestic Dove Way	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,776 (-12%)	0mo	$250,990	$141	73
29067 Bison Haven Dr	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,083 (+3%)	0mo	$305,290	$147	72
28923 Rustic Robin Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (-7%)	1mo	$343,990	$183	72
16218 Domestic Dove Way	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,776 (-12%)	1mo	$317,990	$179	71
28803 Golden Wheat Ct	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,776 (-12%)	1mo	$275,440	$155	70
16222 Domestic Dove Way	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,736 (-14%)	1mo	$307,990	$177	68
27242 Wheat Falls Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (-6%)	0mo	$281,640	$148	60
16311 Golden Corral Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (-14%)	1mo	$326,990	$187	59
27230 Wheat Falls Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (-7%)	1mo	$337,990	$180	57
16135 Domestic Dove Way	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,876 (-8%)	2mo	$310,990	$166	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-44,928
• Equity at exit: $39,363

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-60,789
• Equity at exit: $22,826

Cash invested: $73,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1782
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,539 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$330 /mo · $3,960/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,436

Max offer price $264,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,000
• Closing costs: $7,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16315 Mesquite Field Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	43d	1	0.27mi
29023 Pearl Barley Way Unit 3656 Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2395	$2,300	$0.96	24d	1	0.60mi
16722 Old Wagon Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1880	$1,790	$0.95	43d	1	0.76mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   price $264,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $267,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $267,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $271,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $271,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $271,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    price $271,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $278,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $278,000 Active 875-char remark
17. 2025-11-26
    soldstatus Closed 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Core Watermill Collection "Littleton" Plan with Elevation "P4" in The Grand Prairie! On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests.

18. 2025-11-06
    price $269,540 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Core Watermill Collection "Littleton" Plan with Elevation "P4" in The Grand Prairie! On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests.

19. 2025-11-05
    price $274,940 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Core Watermill Collection "Littleton" Plan with Elevation "P4" in The Grand Prairie! On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests.

20. 2025-11-05
    listed $325,990 Active 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Core Watermill Collection "Littleton" Plan with Elevation "P4" in The Grand Prairie! On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 90% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,471
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,788
• − Property taxes: −$3,960
• − Insurance: −$1,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,438
• − Management: −$2,438
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,680
• Taxable loss: −$3,353
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$805
• After-tax cash flow: $1,783/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home in The Grand Prairie is in good condition with a fresh paint job and new appliances. It offers a spacious layout and a well-maintained exterior, making it a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Both landscape front yard — improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both install smart home features — attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both landscape front yard — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both install smart home features — attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Price Changed $264,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $267,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-31 Price Changed $271,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $278,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $269,540 HARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $274,940 HARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $325,990 HARMLS