5111 Matador Trl · Amarillo, TX 79109

$249,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1964 $117/sqft · 14% below area Est $290k · 14% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss out on this great house in a desirable neighborhood! This 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom home features a large primary bedroom with a huge walk-in closet. Move-in ready and perfect for anyone needing space--schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1964
• Listed 91 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-265 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Amarillo ISD (urban): math 44% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #336 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Western Plateau El (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 431 students, 59% FRL); Bonham Middle (math 61% / reading 49%, grade B-, #248 of 1,662 statewide, top 15%, 867 students, 37% FRL); Amarillo H S (math 55% / reading 64%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 2,170 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Amarillo ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 157 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $190,521 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.54%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,537
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -13.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-52,926
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-48,735
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79109

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,905 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$355 /mo · $4,266/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,241

Max offer price $203,090

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-124	-5% $-194	+0% $-265	+5% $-336	+10% $-406
Rent	-10% $-415	-5% $-340	+0% $-265	+5% $-190	+10% $-114
Rate	-1.0pp $-139	-0.5pp $-201	base $-265	+0.5pp $-330	+1.0pp $-396

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5101 Harvard St Amarillo, TX	4.0	2.5	2339	$2,275	$0.97	22d	1	0.32mi
4612 Buffalo Trl Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	45d	1	0.52mi
5822 Syracuse Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,800	$1.23	15d	1	1.04mi
2715 Steves Way Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1627	$1,800	$1.11	45d	1	1.30mi
3719 Julie Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,675	$1.15	15d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $249,900 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $259,900 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,900 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,900 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,900 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $259,900 Active 70 DOM
17. 2026-04-22
    price $259,900 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    Don't miss out on this great house in a desirable neighborhood! This 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom home features a large primary bedroom with a huge walk-in closet. Move-in ready and perfect for anyone needing space--schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-03-20
    listed $270,000 Active 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    Don't miss out on this great house in a desirable neighborhood! This 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom home features a large primary bedroom with a huge walk-in closet. Move-in ready and perfect for anyone needing space--schedule your showing today!

19. 2020-05-01
    soldstatus
20. 2020-04-30
    soldstatus 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Calling all Investors or buyers looking to flip! Check out this AWESOME OPPORTUNITY in Western Plateau! The potential this property offers is limitless! 3 bedrooms upstairs 2 potential bedrooms downstairs, 2 baths upstairs, 1 bath downstairs, 2 living areas, a basement and a single car garage awaits you in this HUGE and Limitless home! All info is deemed reliable but not guarenteed.

21. 2020-03-22
    listed $119,900 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Calling all Investors or buyers looking to flip! Check out this AWESOME OPPORTUNITY in Western Plateau! The potential this property offers is limitless! 3 bedrooms upstairs 2 potential bedrooms downstairs, 2 baths upstairs, 1 bath downstairs, 2 living areas, a basement and a single car garage awaits you in this HUGE and Limitless home! All info is deemed reliable but not guarenteed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,266 · $355/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,573 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$308/yr (+$26/mo · 7.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$4,266
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,829
• − Management: −$1,829
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$7,579
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,819
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,361/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amarillo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808130
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,478
• Composite: 35.96/100
• National rank: #4798
• State rank: #336 of 826 in TX

Livability — Amarillo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11876

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Amarillo, TX
• County: Randall County · 137,351 people
• City population: 185,802
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 43,578
• Household income: $70,435
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1640.0

Population outlook (Randall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,140 people
• By 2030: 163,107 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 184,999 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 206,948 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 260,204 · +71.0%
• By 2100: 294,980 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.3pp toward D · 2008: -62.7pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+65.1 2012: R+68.2 2008: R+62.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.95%
• Current HPI: 171.6795
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.24%
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+116.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $259,900 AARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $270,000 AARMLS
• 2020-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-04-30 Sold (MLS) — AARMLS
• 2020-03-22 Listed $119,900 AARMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,266 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.