4403 New Orleans · Houston, TX 77020

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1940 7,626 sqft lot $125/sqft · 48% below area Est $323k · 48% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Prime development opportunity on a combined 7,626 SQFT lot, including the adjoining HCAD (0513580000010). The existing home is a tear-down, providing a blank canvas for new construction. The current layout features separate living, dining, and den areas, plus a fenced backyard—ideal for planning your dream home or investment project. Take advantage of this rare chance to build in a desirable location, and show off your creative vision.

Key facts

• Combined lot
• Desirable location
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• COMBINED LOT
• FENCED BACKYARD
• DESIRABLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1940; Single-story (entry level: first)
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Built-Up roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Lot measured in square feet (7,626)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom (First level) — 17 x 12; Bedroom (First level) — 13 x 10; Primary Bedroom (First level) — 19 x 16
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Gas cooling option
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; Cleared lot (visible from interior context)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $339 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fleming Middle (math 10% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 384 students, 97% FRL); Wheatley H S (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 643 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,465 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.59%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,722
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -47.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1413 Featherstone St	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,344 (-0%)	11mo	$184,000	$137	79
2004 Worms St	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-0%)	1mo	$259,000	$193	76
5001 Farmer St	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (+1%)	2mo	$299,000	$220	75
4714 Buck St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-0%)	7mo	$289,900	$216	68
1811 Pannell St Unit C	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,381 (+2%)	7mo	$275,000	$199	67
4429 Sumpter St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,524 (+13%)	16mo	$279,000	$183	56
4803 Farmer St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-11%)	7mo	$140,000	$117	53
2405 Pannell St	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,230 (-9%)	3mo	$99,500	$81	51
5214 Hershe St	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,207 (-11%)	7mo	$164,000	$136	48
4705 Coke St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,212 (-10%)	9mo	$245,000	$202	46
4611 Buck St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,541 (+14%)	8mo	$205,000	$133	43
2901 Kirk St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,505 (+12%)	16mo	$290,000	$193	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $116,152
• Equity at exit: $152,249

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.98×
• Total profit: $330,524
• Equity at exit: $328,330

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77020

• Home prices YoY: 29.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,934 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,796/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,506

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $434	-5% $386	+0% $339	+5% $291	+10% $243
Rent	-10% $186	-5% $262	+0% $339	+5% $415	+10% $491
Rate	-1.0pp $424	-0.5pp $382	base $339	+0.5pp $295	+1.0pp $250

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	44d	1	0.10mi
4712 Rawley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1501	$2,045	$1.36	21d	1	0.26mi
4712 Rawley St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,070	$1.38	21d	1	0.26mi
3730 Lyons Ave Unit 216 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	44d	1	0.38mi
1513 Cage St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,550	$1.06	44d	1	0.58mi
3300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	44d	1	0.66mi
4509 Courtney St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1456	$1,150	$0.79	23d	1	0.70mi
2105 Sam Wilson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1416	$6,750	$4.77	44d	1	0.73mi
5605 Mulvey St Unit 1019610P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1410	$4,931	$3.50	0d	1	0.73mi
1307 Bayou St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	8d	1	0.77mi
1303 Bayou St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1869	$3,200	$1.71	44d	1	0.77mi
2704 Sam Wilson St Unit 1391353P Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1001	$2,082	$2.08	0d	1	0.98mi
308 Grove St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1701	$2,350	$1.38	8d	1	0.99mi
1023 Hahlo St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1434	$1,775	$1.24	6d	1	1.11mi
3503 Wyrick St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1746	$2,850	$1.63	44d	1	1.11mi
1714 Mary St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	44d	1	1.23mi
800 Middle St Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,593	$1.59	6d	1	1.33mi
91 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.5	970	$3,420	$3.52	2d	69	1.48mi
91 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$3,094	$3.55	21d	16	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-03-03
    listed $169,000 Active 445-char remark
15. 2026-03-02
    historical
16. 2026-02-02
    price $169,000
17. 2025-12-03
    listed $175,000 Active
18. 2025-12-01
    historical
19. 2025-10-06
    listed $199,000 Active
20. 2003-03-18
    soldstatus
21. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,796 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,093 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: +$297/yr (+$25/mo · 10.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,796
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,857
• − Management: −$1,857
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $1,476
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$354
• After-tax cash flow: $3,709/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,686
• Household income: $50,119
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 969.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Black 24% Two or more races 22% White 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 59% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.64%
• Current HPI: 246.5578
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2003-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,796 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.