306 Hawk St · Lincoln, ND 58504

$49,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 45 Days on market

Built 1999 Est $78k · 36% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1999
• Listed 44 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax listed (reference only)

Exterior

• Parking: No parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: No notable exterior features listed; Lot is rented

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher, Range, Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Range, Refrigerator; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.2% vs local median 3.8% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#38 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 95.98%
• DSCR: 5.27
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,824
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
289 Partridge Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	4mo	$60,000	$49	94
281 Partridge Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	12mo	$88,660	$73	85
278 Partridge Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-6%)	2mo	$78,000	$68	82
280 Partridge Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-6%)	5mo	$73,000	$64	80
282 Partridge Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-6%)	6mo	$73,000	$64	80
298 Hawk St	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	22mo	$75,000	$62	80
215 Dove St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+5%)	3mo	$90,000	$70	79
113 Pheasant St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	12mo	$82,500	$68	76
106 Albatross Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+8%)	13mo	$25,000	$19	64
261 Robin St	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (+5%)	20mo	$56,900	$44	62
7037 Snappy Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+5%)	1mo	$150,000	$117	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 96.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.49×
• Total profit: $62,753
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 99.3%
• Equity multiple: 11.37×
• Total profit: $144,911
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58504

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,806 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $318/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $1,118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $391

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
133 Marshall Loop Bismarck, ND	4.0	2.0	1396	$2,395	$1.72	20d	1	0.67mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,900 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,900 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,900 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-05-05
    listed $49,900 Active
19. 2026-03-30
    price $51,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $318 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $489 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: +$171/yr (+$14/mo · 53.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$318
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,734
• − Management: −$1,734
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $13,388
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,213
• After-tax cash flow: $10,198/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #5588

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 30,212
• Household income: $85,637
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Native American 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Scotch-Irish 5% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.70%
• Current HPI: 210.0651
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.81%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $49,900 GNMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $51,900 GNMLS