5027 Palamedes Swallowtail Ln · Needville, TX 77461

$208,991

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · SingleFamily · 104 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $183/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Pinehollow Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $208,991 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $228,915.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $209k).
• Recommended offer: $190k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.3% in Needville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#137 in TX, #3,992 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Needville ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Needville El (math 58% / reading 53%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 1,129 students, 49% FRL); Needville Middle (math 56% / reading 56%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 819 students, 45% FRL); Needville H S (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,067 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 516 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,181 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,915
• List price: $208,991
• Delta: -4.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5015 Palamedes Swallowtail Ln	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,656 (0%)	3mo	$229,990	$139	96
5003 Wild Bergamot Ct	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-8%)	2mo	$224,290	$147	76
6606 Sleepy Orange Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-3%)	3mo	$255,990	$160	73
5206 Santa Cruz Bay	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-0%)	3mo	$257,390	$156	72
6814 Papillon Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,749 (+6%)	3mo	$277,590	$159	71
5003 Palamedes Swallowtail Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,461 (-12%)	2mo	$227,740	$156	71
7518 Barcelona Spgs	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-3%)	2mo	$216,990	$136	69
6554 Summer Azure Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-3%)	2mo	$259,990	$162	67
5210 Santa Cruz Bay	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,635 (-1%)	2mo	$283,990	$174	64
6511 Silver Emperor Ln	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,900 (+15%)	2mo	$267,340	$141	52
4938 Valencia Frst	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-15%)	3mo	$219,990	$156	49
7602 Barcelona Spgs	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-15%)	1mo	$197,991	$140	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-42,859
• Equity at exit: $34,132

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-44,226
• Equity at exit: $19,792

Cash invested: $64,096 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 65 active · 94 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.3 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $245,990 ($148/sqft)
• Median days on market: 74 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77461

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 516
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,200
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,434/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$183
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,318

Max offer price $215,394

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $65	-5% $-14	+0% $-93	+5% $-173	+10% $-252
Rent	-10% $-267	-5% $-180	+0% $-93	+5% $-7	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $22	-0.5pp $-35	base $-93	+0.5pp $-153	+1.0pp $-213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,229
• Closing costs: $6,867
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4707 Pine Meadow Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$2,200	$1.38	98d	1	0.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association (ACMI) with park, pool, and tennis courtsAnnual association fee of $2,200

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyardSubdivision lot settingAssociation pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 14 x 11)Three additional bedrooms on first floor (approx. 11 x 10; 10 x 10; 10 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboSeparate showerTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $208,991 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $208,991 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   pricedays on market $208,991 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $213,991 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $213,991 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $213,991 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   pricedays on market $213,991 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $218,991 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $218,991 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $218,991 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $218,991 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $218,991 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $218,991 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $218,991 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $218,991 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $218,991 Active 84 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    pricedays on market $218,991 Active 82 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $212,991 Active 80 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $212,991 Active 78 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $212,991 Active 77 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $212,991 Active 76 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $212,991 Active 75 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $212,991 Active 74 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $212,991 Active 73 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $212,991 Active 72 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $212,991 Active 71 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $212,991 Active 70 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $212,991 Active 69 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $212,991 Active 68 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    price $212,991 Active 67 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $208,991 Active 67 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $208,991 Active 66 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $208,991 Active 65 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $208,991 Active 64 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $208,991 Active 63 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $208,991 Active 62 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $208,991 Active 61 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    price $208,991 Active 60 DOM
39. 2026-08-11
    days on market $227,990 Active 60 DOM
40. 2026-08-10
    days on market $227,990 Active 59 DOM
41. 2026-08-09
    days on market $227,990 Active 58 DOM
42. 2026-08-08
    statusdays on market $227,990 Active 57 DOM
43. 2026-05-08
    price $222,990 593-char remark
44. 2026-05-04
    price $227,090 593-char remark
45. 2026-04-30
    price $235,140 593-char remark
46. 2026-04-28
    price $246,990 593-char remark
47. 2026-04-20
    price $221,940 593-char remark
48. 2026-04-16
    price $233,790 593-char remark
49. 2026-04-13
    price $237,740 593-char remark
50. 2026-04-09
    price $241,690 593-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,823
• − Property taxes: −$3,434
• − Insurance: −$1,942
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − HOA: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$6,659
• Taxable loss: −$4,878
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,171
• After-tax cash flow: $49/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,280–$24,840 screening

This single-level home features a spacious open floorplan with modern finishes and a clean exterior. Minor touch-ups and maintenance would further enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and modern look. ↑
• Rental Replace window blinds — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 55/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Needville El C TX #587/4,322 Nat'l #9,513/41,679 Middle Needville Middle B- TX #234/1,662 Nat'l #2,362/14,009 High Needville H S C- TX #437/1,632 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832310
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,900
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2176
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Needville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #3992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,397
• Household income: $89,360
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (50%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% German/W. Germanic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.17%
• Current HPI: 324.3807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association (ACMI) with park, pool, and tennis courtsAnnual association fee of $2,200

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyardSubdivision lot settingAssociation pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 14 x 11)Three additional bedrooms on first floor (approx. 11 x 10; 10 x 10; 10 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboSeparate showerTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-20.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $227,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $222,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $227,090 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $235,140 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $246,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $221,940 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $233,790 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $237,740 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $241,690 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $245,740 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $250,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $250,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $286,990 HARMLS