331 Southern Oaks Dr · Eureka, TX 75859

$74,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1990 1.03 ac lot $66/sqft · 73% below area ↓ 47% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 lots sold together. Total of 1.03 acres Lake entrance at the end of street. Fixer upper 3 bed 2.5 bath Double Wide. 2 Covered Carports Storm Shelter Large front porch Lot Descriptions: SOUTHERN OAKS II LOT 22 BLK 4 SOUTHERN OAKS II LOT 23 BLK 4 SOUTHERN OAKS II LOT 12 BLK 4

Key facts

• Covered carports
• Large front porch
• Lake entrance

Tags

• LAKE ENTRANCE
• STORM SHELTER
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• COVERED CARPORTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $74k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $552 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $74k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 0.0% in Eureka — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,196 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Fairfield ISD (town): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #475 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Freestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($512 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Freestone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $71,780 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.98%
• DSCR: 2.42
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,011
• List price: $74,000
• Delta: -77.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
377 Brandywine Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,280 (+14%)	13mo	$89,900	$70	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $39,916
• Equity at exit: $28,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.74×
• Total profit: $98,232
• Equity at exit: $41,264

Cash invested: $20,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75859

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,297 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$388
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $646/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $552

Break-even live

Break-even rent $598

Max offer price $74,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,500
• Closing costs: $2,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $74,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $74,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $74,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $74,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $74,000 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-04-22
    listed $74,000 Active 289-char remark

    Show marketing remark (289 chars)

    3 lots sold together. Total of 1.03 acres Lake entrance at the end of street. Fixer upper 3 bed 2.5 bath Double Wide. 2 Covered Carports Storm Shelter Large front porch Lot Descriptions: SOUTHERN OAKS II LOT 22 BLK 4 SOUTHERN OAKS II LOT 23 BLK 4 SOUTHERN OAKS II LOT 12 BLK 4

18. 2026-03-20
    historical
19. 2025-11-14
    price $74,000
20. 2025-10-31
    price $79,000
21. 2025-10-07
    price $84,000
22. 2025-09-20
    price $89,000
23. 2025-08-09
    price $94,000
24. 2025-06-09
    price $99,000
25. 2025-05-18
    price $110,000
26. 2025-04-12
    status Active
27. 2025-04-06
    price $105,000
28. 2024-11-20
    price $120,000
29. 2024-11-06
    listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $646 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,354 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$708/yr (+$59/mo · 109.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,145
• − Property taxes: −$646
• − Insurance: −$370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,246
• − Management: −$1,246
• − Depreciation: −$2,153
• Taxable income: $5,765
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,383
• After-tax cash flow: $5,244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfield ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818940
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $46,909
• Composite: 31.68/100
• National rank: #5926
• State rank: #475 of 826 in TX

Livability — Eureka

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1196
• US rank: #20931

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,468

Population outlook (Freestone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,591 people
• By 2030: 19,470 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 19,111 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 18,700 · -4.5%
• By 2075: 17,586 · -10.2%
• By 2100: 14,933 · -23.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Scandinavian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Freestone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.3) · D 16.6% · R 82.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.8pp toward R · 2008: -43.5pp · 2024: -66.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.3 2020: R+61.5 2016: R+59.6 2012: R+50.2 2008: R+43.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.91%
• Current HPI: 204.2727
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-47.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $74,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $74,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $79,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $84,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $89,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-09 Price Changed $94,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $99,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-18 Price Changed $110,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-12 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-04-06 Price Changed $105,000 NTREIS
• 2024-11-20 Price Changed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2024-11-06 Listed $140,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $646 · +15.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.