4430 SW Zinnia Ct · Rainbow Lakes Estates, FL 34431

$173,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1965 0.99 ac lot $220/sqft · 57% above area Est $282k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a truly a unique property in Rainbow Lakes Estates that features two separate single family homes, an in ground screened pool, a large detached workshop, and about 1 acre of land. Main home is a 3/2 with an attached carport and screened in-ground pool. Back home has a separate address (4450) with 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, an attached carport, a kitchen, a separate electric meter, and a separate driveway. No Flood Zone. Near Lake Bonable where you can take your small boat out and fish. Community offers clubhouse, fitness center, shuffleboard, parks, groups, and more for all residents. Property needs lots of repairs and restoration. Buyers are encouraged to do all due diligence and complete inspections prior to placing an offer.

Key facts

• About 1 acre of land
• Separate driveway
• 0.99 acre lot

Tags

• IN GROUND SCREENED POOL
• LARGE DETACHED WORKSHOP
• ABOUT 1 ACRE OF LAND
• SEPARATE ELECTRIC METER
• SEPARATE DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-520 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (26.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 4.5% in Rainbow Lakes Estates — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 556 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $174k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,380 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.81%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,233
• List price: $173,900
• Delta: -38.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23177 SW Beach Blvd	0.40mi	2/1.5 (+1)	720 (-9%)	13mo	$199,900	$278	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-61,062
• Equity at exit: $25,929

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.95×
• Total profit: $-94,921
• Equity at exit: $15,036

Cash invested: $48,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34431

• Home prices YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 556
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,264 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax from tax record: −$534 /mo · $6,404/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-520

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,922

Max offer price $128,071

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-421	-5% $-470	+0% $-520	+5% $-569	+10% $-618
Rent	-10% $-619	-5% $-570	+0% $-520	+5% $-470	+10% $-420
Rate	-1.0pp $-432	-0.5pp $-475	base $-520	+0.5pp $-565	+1.0pp $-611

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,475
• Closing costs: $5,217
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23540 SW Marine Blvd Dunnellon, FL	2.0	1.0	830	$1,350	$1.63	14d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $173,900 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $173,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $173,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $173,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $173,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $173,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $173,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-05-07
   status Active 741-char remark

   Show marketing remark (741 chars)

   This is a truly a unique property in Rainbow Lakes Estates that features two separate single family homes, an in ground screened pool, a large detached workshop, and about 1 acre of land. Main home is a 3/2 with an attached carport and screened in-ground pool. Back home has a separate address (4450) with 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, an attached carport, a kitchen, a separate electric meter, and a separate driveway. No Flood Zone. Near Lake Bonable where you can take your small boat out and fish. Community offers clubhouse, fitness center, shuffleboard, parks, groups, and more for all residents. Property needs lots of repairs and restoration. Buyers are encouraged to do all due diligence and complete inspections prior to placing an offer.

9. 2026-05-07
   price $174,900 741-char remark

   Show marketing remark (741 chars)

   This is a truly a unique property in Rainbow Lakes Estates that features two separate single family homes, an in ground screened pool, a large detached workshop, and about 1 acre of land. Main home is a 3/2 with an attached carport and screened in-ground pool. Back home has a separate address (4450) with 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, an attached carport, a kitchen, a separate electric meter, and a separate driveway. No Flood Zone. Near Lake Bonable where you can take your small boat out and fish. Community offers clubhouse, fitness center, shuffleboard, parks, groups, and more for all residents. Property needs lots of repairs and restoration. Buyers are encouraged to do all due diligence and complete inspections prior to placing an offer.

10. 2026-05-07
    status Active 741-char remark

    Show marketing remark (741 chars)

    This is a truly a unique property in Rainbow Lakes Estates that features two separate single family homes, an in ground screened pool, a large detached workshop, and about 1 acre of land. Main home is a 3/2 with an attached carport and screened in-ground pool. Back home has a separate address (4450) with 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, an attached carport, a kitchen, a separate electric meter, and a separate driveway. No Flood Zone. Near Lake Bonable where you can take your small boat out and fish. Community offers clubhouse, fitness center, shuffleboard, parks, groups, and more for all residents. Property needs lots of repairs and restoration. Buyers are encouraged to do all due diligence and complete inspections prior to placing an offer.

11. 2026-05-07
    price $174,900 741-char remark

    Show marketing remark (741 chars)

    This is a truly a unique property in Rainbow Lakes Estates that features two separate single family homes, an in ground screened pool, a large detached workshop, and about 1 acre of land. Main home is a 3/2 with an attached carport and screened in-ground pool. Back home has a separate address (4450) with 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, an attached carport, a kitchen, a separate electric meter, and a separate driveway. No Flood Zone. Near Lake Bonable where you can take your small boat out and fish. Community offers clubhouse, fitness center, shuffleboard, parks, groups, and more for all residents. Property needs lots of repairs and restoration. Buyers are encouraged to do all due diligence and complete inspections prior to placing an offer.

12. 2026-05-04
    status Pending 741-char remark

    Show marketing remark (741 chars)

    This is a truly a unique property in Rainbow Lakes Estates that features two separate single family homes, an in ground screened pool, a large detached workshop, and about 1 acre of land. Main home is a 3/2 with an attached carport and screened in-ground pool. Back home has a separate address (4450) with 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, an attached carport, a kitchen, a separate electric meter, and a separate driveway. No Flood Zone. Near Lake Bonable where you can take your small boat out and fish. Community offers clubhouse, fitness center, shuffleboard, parks, groups, and more for all residents. Property needs lots of repairs and restoration. Buyers are encouraged to do all due diligence and complete inspections prior to placing an offer.

13. 2026-05-04
    status Pending 741-char remark

    Show marketing remark (741 chars)

    This is a truly a unique property in Rainbow Lakes Estates that features two separate single family homes, an in ground screened pool, a large detached workshop, and about 1 acre of land. Main home is a 3/2 with an attached carport and screened in-ground pool. Back home has a separate address (4450) with 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, an attached carport, a kitchen, a separate electric meter, and a separate driveway. No Flood Zone. Near Lake Bonable where you can take your small boat out and fish. Community offers clubhouse, fitness center, shuffleboard, parks, groups, and more for all residents. Property needs lots of repairs and restoration. Buyers are encouraged to do all due diligence and complete inspections prior to placing an offer.

14. 2026-04-28
    price $179,900 741-char remark

    Show marketing remark (741 chars)

    This is a truly a unique property in Rainbow Lakes Estates that features two separate single family homes, an in ground screened pool, a large detached workshop, and about 1 acre of land. Main home is a 3/2 with an attached carport and screened in-ground pool. Back home has a separate address (4450) with 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, an attached carport, a kitchen, a separate electric meter, and a separate driveway. No Flood Zone. Near Lake Bonable where you can take your small boat out and fish. Community offers clubhouse, fitness center, shuffleboard, parks, groups, and more for all residents. Property needs lots of repairs and restoration. Buyers are encouraged to do all due diligence and complete inspections prior to placing an offer.

15. 2026-04-28
    price $179,900 741-char remark

    Show marketing remark (741 chars)

    This is a truly a unique property in Rainbow Lakes Estates that features two separate single family homes, an in ground screened pool, a large detached workshop, and about 1 acre of land. Main home is a 3/2 with an attached carport and screened in-ground pool. Back home has a separate address (4450) with 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, an attached carport, a kitchen, a separate electric meter, and a separate driveway. No Flood Zone. Near Lake Bonable where you can take your small boat out and fish. Community offers clubhouse, fitness center, shuffleboard, parks, groups, and more for all residents. Property needs lots of repairs and restoration. Buyers are encouraged to do all due diligence and complete inspections prior to placing an offer.

16. 2026-03-25
    listed $189,900 Active 741-char remark

    Show marketing remark (741 chars)

    This is a truly a unique property in Rainbow Lakes Estates that features two separate single family homes, an in ground screened pool, a large detached workshop, and about 1 acre of land. Main home is a 3/2 with an attached carport and screened in-ground pool. Back home has a separate address (4450) with 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, an attached carport, a kitchen, a separate electric meter, and a separate driveway. No Flood Zone. Near Lake Bonable where you can take your small boat out and fish. Community offers clubhouse, fitness center, shuffleboard, parks, groups, and more for all residents. Property needs lots of repairs and restoration. Buyers are encouraged to do all due diligence and complete inspections prior to placing an offer.

17. 2026-03-25
    listed $189,900 Active 741-char remark

    Show marketing remark (741 chars)

    This is a truly a unique property in Rainbow Lakes Estates that features two separate single family homes, an in ground screened pool, a large detached workshop, and about 1 acre of land. Main home is a 3/2 with an attached carport and screened in-ground pool. Back home has a separate address (4450) with 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, an attached carport, a kitchen, a separate electric meter, and a separate driveway. No Flood Zone. Near Lake Bonable where you can take your small boat out and fish. Community offers clubhouse, fitness center, shuffleboard, parks, groups, and more for all residents. Property needs lots of repairs and restoration. Buyers are encouraged to do all due diligence and complete inspections prior to placing an offer.

18. 2025-12-16
    soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,404 · $534/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,404 · $534/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,741
• − Property taxes: −$6,404
• − Insurance: −$870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,213
• − Management: −$1,213
• − Depreciation: −$5,059
• Taxable loss: −$9,334
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,240
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Lakes Estates

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rainbow Lakes Estates, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,785
• Household income: $56,534
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 72.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.42%
• Current HPI: 343.1464
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+59.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — RACC
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $174,900 RACC
• 2026-05-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $174,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Pending — RACC
• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $179,900 RACC
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Listed $189,900 RACC
• 2025-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,404 · +16.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.