10329 Navarro Path · Conroe, TX 77316

$317,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,107 sqft · Land · 30 Days on market

Built 2026 5,125 sqft lot $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

UNDER CONSTRUCTION! READY IN JULY! This spacious home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 2,107 square feet designed for comfortable everyday living and effortless entertaining. A welcoming covered porch opens to a spacious foyer that flows into the open kitchen, dining, and family room. The family room features a sloped ceiling and direct access to the covered patio, creating seamless indoor-outdoor living. The private owner’s suite is tucked away at the rear of the home and includes a sloped ceiling, a large walk-in closet, and a well-appointed bathroom. Upstairs, a bright game room provides the perfect space for movie nights or playtime, while three generously sized secondary bed

Key facts

• 5,125 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on a cul-de-sac within a subdivision
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by King Property Management; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); Faces west; Slab foundation; 2,107 total living area (per listing)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio and deck; Backyard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 15 x 12); Second-floor bedroom (approx. 14 x 11); Second-floor bedroom (approx. 14 x 10); Second-floor bedroom (approx. 12 x 12)
• Flooring: Brick flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Double vanity in primary bath; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with attached bath; Pantry; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $318k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $300k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lone Star El (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 766 students, 16% FRL); Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($313k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $235,089 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.35%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-63,992
• Equity at exit: $47,413

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-87,716
• Equity at exit: $27,494

Cash invested: $89,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,351 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,668
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,163/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,477

Max offer price $300,357

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,498
• Closing costs: $9,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $317,990 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $317,990 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $317,990 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $317,990 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $317,990 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $317,990 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $317,990 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $317,990 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $317,990 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $317,990 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $317,990 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $317,990 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $317,990 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $317,990 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $317,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,163 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,819 · $485/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,656/yr (+$388/mo · 400.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,812
• − Property taxes: −$1,163
• − Insurance: −$1,590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,257
• − Management: −$2,257
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$9,251
• Taxable loss: −$6,839
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,641
• After-tax cash flow: $444/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $317,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,163 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.