Is 18657 Shauna Danielle Dr in New Caney, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.4% cap rate and $-420/mo modeled cash flow at a $209,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 18657 Shauna Danielle Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,822/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 29.0

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.7/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +2.9/10.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
1% rule +2.0/10.0
DSCR +0.9/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$209,990

18657 Shauna Danielle Dr · New Caney, TX 77357

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,499 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Easy One-Story Living with Open-Concept Design The Athena is a thoughtfully designed one-story home offering 1,499 square feet with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This inviting layout features open-concept living with a modern kitchen showcasing granite countertops, a large island, soft close cabinets and drawers, and stainless steel appliances. The private primary suite is tucked away for added comfort and includes a walk-in closet and en suite bath. Seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas makes everyday living and entertaining effortless.

Key facts

One story living
Open concept design
Large island

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-420 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (5.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (13.2% below list).
Recommended offer: $182k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: New Caney El (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 642 students, 89% FRL); Keefer Crossing Middle (math 35% / reading 31%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 1,213 students, 81% FRL); New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 57% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 1412 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 90d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,183 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.70% ✗
Cap rate: 4.35%
Cash-on-cash: -6.92%
DSCR: 0.69
GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $259,890
List price: $209,990
Delta: -15.35%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18645 Shauna Danielle Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+2%)	1mo	$261,990	$172	81
22747 Kaelynn St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-6%)	0mo	$253,409	$179	81
18460 Landing Meadows Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,477 (-2%)	1mo	$249,340	$169	77
18539 Landing Meadows Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,449 (-3%)	1mo	$249,940	$172	77
22742 Kaelynn St	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,610 (+7%)	2mo	$269,818	$168	75
18660 Shauna Danielle Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-6%)	1mo	$257,000	$182	74
18555 Landing Meadows Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,414 (-6%)	0mo	$224,540	$159	73
18547 Landing Meadows Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,414 (-6%)	1mo	$254,940	$180	73
22754 Kaelynn St	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,610 (+7%)	0mo	$254,114	$158	72
18554 Landing Meadows Ln	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (+4%)	1mo	$264,040	$169	70
22635 Ellis Way Ln	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (+4%)	1mo	$268,040	$171	67
18542 Landing Meadows Ln	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (+4%)	2mo	$265,040	$169	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -31.5%
Equity multiple: -0.01×
Total profit: $-73,760
Equity at exit: $38,750

10-year hold

IRR: -55.5%
Equity multiple: -0.62×
Total profit: $-117,697
Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,769 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 38 active · 40 under contract
Months of supply: 5.3 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $261,540 ($170/sqft)
Median days on market: 96 d
This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +2.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

Home prices YoY: -24.7%
Rents YoY: 0.2%
Active inventory: 1412
Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,822 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,898/yr
Insurance: −$108
HOA: −$63
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
Net cashflow: $-420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,353

Max offer price $199,145

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-240	-5% $-330	+0% $-420	+5% $-510	+10% $-599
Rent	-10% $-564	-5% $-492	+0% $-420	+5% $-348	+10% $-276
Rate	-1.0pp $-289	-0.5pp $-354	base $-420	+0.5pp $-487	+1.0pp $-556

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $64,972
Closing costs: $7,797
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21504 Mexican John Rd New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,500	$1.23	38d	1	0.27mi
21504 Mexican John Rd New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,500	$1.23	139d	1	0.27mi
21950 Caney Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,850	$1.57	80d	1	0.62mi
22048 Newton Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	924	$1,650	$1.79	120d	1	0.91mi
18036 Trepito Ave New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1760	$1,950	$1.11	89d	1	1.22mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Property is under construction
HOA & community: Community association: The Landing CAIAnnual association fee of $750

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garageAttached garage parking
Security: Smoke detector(s)
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2026)Single-story (entry on first floor)Full ownership
Construction: Cement sidingComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt by Starlight Homes
Exterior features: Fully fenced private yardBack yard fencingSubdivision settingConcrete road access

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherGas cooktopGas ovenMicrowaveDisposalRefrigerator
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 15.5 x 12Bedroom (First floor) — 11 x 10Bedroom (First floor) — 10 x 10
Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)Ventilation (improved indoor air quality)
Interior features: Granite countersHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen and family room comboPantryWalk-in pantryTub with showerProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupGas dryer hookupWasherDryer

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

days on market $209,990 Active 69 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $209,990 Active 68 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $209,990 Active 67 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $209,990 Active 66 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $209,990 Active 65 DOM
2026-09-18

pricedays on market $209,990 Active 64 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $219,990 Active 63 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $219,990 Active 62 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $219,990 Active 61 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $219,990 Active 60 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $219,990 Active 59 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $219,990 Active 58 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $219,990 Active 57 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $219,990 Active 51 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $219,990 Active 50 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $219,990 Active 48 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $219,990 Active 46 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $219,990 Active 45 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $219,990 Active 44 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $219,990 Active 43 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $219,990 Active 42 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $219,990 Active 40 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $219,990 Active 39 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $219,990 Active 38 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $219,990 Active 37 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $219,990 Active 36 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $219,990 Active 35 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $219,990 Active 34 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $219,990 Active 33 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $219,990 Active 32 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $219,990 Active 31 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $219,990 Active 30 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $219,990 Active 29 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $219,990 Active 28 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $219,990 Active 27 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $219,990 Active 26 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $219,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $219,990 Active 24 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $219,990 Active 23 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $219,990 Active 21 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $219,990 Active 20 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $219,990 Active 19 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $219,990 Active 18 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $219,990 Active 15 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $219,990 Active 13 DOM
2026-07-28

pricestatus $219,990 Active 12 DOM
2026-07-06

pricestatus $261,790 Pending 12 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $239,990 Active 12 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $239,990 Active 11 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $239,990 Active 10 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $21,862
− Mortgage interest: −$14,558
− Property taxes: −$3,898
− Insurance: −$1,299
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,749
− Management: −$1,749
− HOA: −$756
− Depreciation: −$7,560
Taxable loss: −$9,708

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,330
After-tax cash flow: $-2,708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, well-maintained exterior, and hardwood flooring. It has potential for further value increases through exterior painting and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior brick and siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Upgrading the kitchen backsplash — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary New Caney El F TX #3,013/4,322 Nat'l #29,899/41,679 Middle Keefer Crossing Middle F TX #930/1,662 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High New Caney H S F TX #1,183/1,632 Nat'l #11,797/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: New Caney ISD
NCES district ID: 4832400
Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $55,380
Composite: 27.97/100
National rank: #6857
State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Caney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 37,592
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 37,592
Household income: $76,050
Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
Current HPI: 266.8315
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

2026-06-08 Pending — HARMLS
2026-06-02 Price Changed $239,990 HARMLS
2026-06-02 Listed $261,790 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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