19960 American Ave #57 · Hilmar-Irwin, CA 95324

$134,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 10 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $135k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Immaculate & move-in ready! New roof, fresh paint inside & out, new kitchen appliances, new wood flooring throughout. Spacious floorplan with 3 bedrooms and master bath that features soaking tub. Relaxing deck off master bedroom. .. Welcome home!

Key facts

• Relaxing deck
• New wood flooring
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• NEW WOOD FLOORING
• RELAXING DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior community; Address: 19960 American Ave #57, Hilmar, CA 95324 (space #57 in park)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; 220V in kitchen; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double wide; Updated / remodeled; Built in 1986; Wood skirting; Located in a senior community
• Construction: Shingle and shake roof; Manufactured home (Golden West HM manufacturer, Canterbury model)
• Exterior features: Backyard; Regular lot shape; Carport awning; Porch awning; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countertops; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Free-standing electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double sinks; Tub and tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Dual-pane partial windows; Covered deck / deck attached to the living area; Dining bar and formal dining area; Great room
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; 220V in laundry; Electric hookup for laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $135k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hilmar Unified (rural): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #890 of 1,400 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elim Elementary (943 students, 42% FRL); Hilmar Middle (504 students, 50% FRL); Hilmar High (math 27% / reading 62%, grade F, #434 of 1,170 statewide, top 39%, 693 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $134,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.62%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,360
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19667 American Ave #100	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$120,000	$83	76
19960 American Ave #4	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	2mo	$200,000	$160	71
19960 American Ave #31	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	16mo	$127,000	$94	70
19960 American Ave #6	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	17mo	$103,000	$77	70
19667 American Ave #88	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	1mo	$100,000	$74	69
19667 American Ave #68	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	9mo	$126,000	$94	67
19667 American Ave #72	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+12%)	12mo	$90,000	$56	57
19667 American	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	22mo	$140,000	$104	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $47,586
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.47×
• Total profit: $130,966
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95324

• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,560 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,024/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $1,090

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,180

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,183	-5% $1,136	+0% $1,090	+5% $1,043	+10% $997
Rent	-10% $888	-5% $989	+0% $1,090	+5% $1,191	+10% $1,292
Rate	-1.0pp $1,158	-0.5pp $1,124	base $1,090	+0.5pp $1,055	+1.0pp $1,019

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $134,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 250-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $134,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,714
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,024
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,457
• − Management: −$2,457
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $11,621
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,789
• After-tax cash flow: $10,288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hilmar Unified
• NCES district ID: 0617220
• Math proficiency: 26% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $52,781
• Composite: 32.82/100
• National rank: #10742
• State rank: #890 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hilmar-Irwin

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hilmar-Irwin, CA
• Population (ZIP): 7,862

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Russian 38% Portuguese 2% Arab 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.29%
• Current HPI: 227.2735
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2020): $252 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.