17817 Lionheart Rd · Deerwood, TX 77306

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · Land · 26 Days on market

Built 2026 6,500 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room—ideal for relaxing and entertaining—is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower. Home complete 6/30/26. Discover new homes for sale in Conroe, TX at Sherwood Glen! Located 40 miles north of Houston, this community combines small-town charm with easy access to the city’s employment and entertainment hotspots. Offering seven one- and two-story floor plans with modern layouts and versatile design, Sherwood Glen has

Key facts

• Built-in pantry
• Walk-in closet
• Private bath

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• BUILT-IN PANTRY
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING AREA
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sherwood Glen POA with an annual fee of $600; Community features include curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Concrete road surface; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 13'11" x 12'3"); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 10'3" x 10'2.5"); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 10' x 11'7"); Three total bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Separate shower; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.4% in Deerwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creighton El (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 92% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 34% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $187,923 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.66%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-15,659
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $7,716
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,879 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $470/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,545

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $377	-5% $320	+0% $264	+5% $207	+10% $151
Rent	-10% $115	-5% $190	+0% $264	+5% $338	+10% $412
Rate	-1.0pp $365	-0.5pp $315	base $264	+0.5pp $212	+1.0pp $159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2140 Cedar Bend Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1871	$1,995	$1.07	12d	1	0.39mi
308 Kinsman Rd Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,650	$1.18	9d	1	1.20mi
308 Kinsman Rd Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,650	$1.18	45d	1	1.20mi
6621 W Forest Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	45d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $199,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $470 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,658 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,188/yr (+$266/mo · 678.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,551
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$470
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,804
• − Management: −$1,804
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$140
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$34
• After-tax cash flow: $3,200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $199,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-30.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $470 · -30.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.