538 Beech St · Petersburg, VA 23803

$184,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,147 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1956 0.45 ac lot $161/sqft · 11% below area Est $208k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits in Petersburg! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a generous . 45-acre lot, offering plenty of space and potential. With approximately 1,140 square feet of living space, this property provides a great opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch or investors seeking their next project. Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, and major roadways. Home is being sold as-is. Listed at $200,000.

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1956

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($200/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.5% in Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#413 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Petersburg City Public School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #131 of 131 in VA (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 118 units permitted in Petersburg city in 2024 (84 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Petersburg County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $185k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 42% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,559 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,374
• List price: $184,999
• Delta: -11.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
512 Magnolia Farms Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	2mo	$263,000	$211	71
2200 Ferndale Ave	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,172 (+2%)	3mo	$209,000	$178	68
2350 Lassiter Ave	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,137 (-1%)	4mo	$75,000	$66	68
336 Youngs Rd	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,099 (-4%)	4mo	$223,000	$203	67
2124 Ferndale Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,254 (+9%)	2mo	$190,000	$152	63
2215 Ferndale Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,248 (+9%)	1mo	$145,000	$116	62
102 Spring St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,180 (+3%)	1mo	$230,000	$195	61
904 Augusta Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,026 (-10%)	0mo	$163,000	$159	57
129 Seaboard St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	2mo	$199,000	$188	54
1616 Circle Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+13%)	0mo	$243,000	$187	52
1720 Lamar Ave	0.53mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,040 (-9%)	1mo	$153,500	$148	52
2241 Carroll Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	988 (-14%)	3mo	$245,000	$248	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.45% appreciation · 5.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $13,047
• Equity at exit: $67,513

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $71,902
• Equity at exit: $93,191

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23803

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,496 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,411/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,474

Max offer price $184,999

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1649 Delmar Ave Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1248	$1,700	$1.36	1d	1	0.16mi
2125 Dupuy Rd Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1063	$1,299	$1.22	1d	1	0.25mi
1740 Randolph Ave Petersburg, VA	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	10d	1	0.44mi
2350 Hill St Unit H Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1193	$1,775	$1.49	1d	1	0.44mi
110 Grigg St Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,600	$1.33	1d	1	0.51mi
718 Confederate Ave Petersburg, VA	3.0	2.0	852	$1,600	$1.88	1d	1	0.69mi
1800 Boydton Plank Rd Petersburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0	900	$1,425	$1.58	1d	14	0.79mi
1517 Halifax St Unit 10 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	43d	1	0.82mi
1516 W Clara Dr Unit 8 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	17d	1	0.85mi
1121 Stainback St Unit 5202 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	43d	1	0.86mi
1121 Stainback St Unit 2108 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	23d	1	0.86mi
1111 Stainback St Apt 2 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	43d	1	0.91mi
408 S West St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,095	$1.22	21d	1	0.93mi
1131 Hawk St Petersburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	43d	1	0.93mi
929 Farmer St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	850	$895	$1.05	23d	1	1.09mi
212 S Dunlop St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	43d	1	1.15mi
838 S Jones St Unit B Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1296	$1,100	$0.85	43d	1	1.19mi
214 N Dunlop St Unit 400 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	892	$1,500	$1.68	43d	1	1.24mi
214 N Dunlop St Apt 305 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	945	$1,350	$1.43	44d	1	1.34mi
214 N Dunlop St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	799	$1,395	$1.74	1d	11	1.34mi
214 N Dunlop St Unit 404 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	863	$1,400	$1.62	43d	1	1.34mi
214 N Dunlop St Unit 119 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	988	$1,399	$1.42	43d	1	1.34mi
801 Hinton St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	745	$1,395	$1.87	1d	8	1.35mi
801 Hinton St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,399	$1.68	19d	2	1.35mi
712 W Washington St Unit B Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1209	$1,250	$1.03	23d	1	1.36mi
115 Pine St Unit 115 Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,462	$1.04	43d	1	1.38mi
714 High St Apt E Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	924	$1,300	$1.41	21d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,999 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,999 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,999 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,999 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,999 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $184,999 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,999 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,999 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,999 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $184,999 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,999 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,999 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $184,999 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    price $190,000 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in Petersburg! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a generous . 45-acre lot, offering plenty of space and potential. With approximately 1,140 square feet of living space, this property provides a great opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch or investors seeking their next project. Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, and major roadways. Home is being sold as-is. Listed at $200,000.

17. 2026-04-14
    price $195,000 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in Petersburg! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a generous . 45-acre lot, offering plenty of space and potential. With approximately 1,140 square feet of living space, this property provides a great opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch or investors seeking their next project. Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, and major roadways. Home is being sold as-is. Listed at $200,000.

18. 2026-04-08
    status Active 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in Petersburg! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a generous . 45-acre lot, offering plenty of space and potential. With approximately 1,140 square feet of living space, this property provides a great opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch or investors seeking their next project. Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, and major roadways. Home is being sold as-is. Listed at $200,000.

19. 2026-03-20
    status Pending 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in Petersburg! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a generous . 45-acre lot, offering plenty of space and potential. With approximately 1,140 square feet of living space, this property provides a great opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch or investors seeking their next project. Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, and major roadways. Home is being sold as-is. Listed at $200,000.

20. 2026-03-13
    listed $200,000 Active 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in Petersburg! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a generous . 45-acre lot, offering plenty of space and potential. With approximately 1,140 square feet of living space, this property provides a great opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch or investors seeking their next project. Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, and major roadways. Home is being sold as-is. Listed at $200,000.

21. 1986-09-18
    soldstatus $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,411 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,517 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$106/yr (+$9/mo · 7.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 42% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,947
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,411
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,436
• − Management: −$1,436
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,005
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$721
• After-tax cash flow: $922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Petersburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102910
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,362
• Composite: 28.78/100
• National rank: #6670
• State rank: #131 of 131 in VA

Livability — Petersburg

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #413
• US rank: #17309

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Petersburg, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 63,420
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 42,012
• Household income: $57,813
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2485.0

Population outlook (Petersburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,488 people
• By 2030: 29,771 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 28,401 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 27,279 · -10.5%
• By 2075: 25,877 · -15.1%
• By 2100: 24,288 · -20.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Petersburg

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+72.8) · D 85.8% · R 13.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 72.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+72.8 2020: D+76.5 2016: D+77.0 2012: D+80.4 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Current HPI: 480.5365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.89%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+413.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $190,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $195,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-03-20 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $200,000 CVRMLS
• 1986-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,411 · +23.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.