657 Lebec #27 · Lebec, CA 93243

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · Manufactured · 58 Days on market

Built 1977 ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don’t miss this incredible opportunity to own a charming two-bedroom, one-bath manufactured home in a peaceful, well-maintained community. Perfectly positioned near Interstate 5, this home offers effortless commuting while keeping you close to everything that matters. Enjoy being just minutes from premier shopping at Tejon Outlets and great dining options, including Hard Rock Cafe. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a smart investment, this move-in-ready home checks all the boxes.

Key facts

• Built 1977
• Listed 57 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $620 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,210 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B+; Watch: cost of living C-, housing D+, schools F.
• El Tejon Unified (rural): math 13% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #361 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $738 of equity ($519 loan paydown + $219 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.20%
• DSCR: 2.74
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $45,144
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
657 Lebec Rd #42	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (+14%)	18mo	$50,850	$57	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $38,364
• Equity at exit: $22,878

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.55×
• Total profit: $95,499
• Equity at exit: $28,394

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93243

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,524 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $620

Break-even live

Break-even rent $740

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    listed $75,000 Active 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    Don’t miss this incredible opportunity to own a charming two-bedroom, one-bath manufactured home in a peaceful, well-maintained community. Perfectly positioned near Interstate 5, this home offers effortless commuting while keeping you close to everything that matters. Enjoy being just minutes from premier shopping at Tejon Outlets and great dining options, including Hard Rock Cafe. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a smart investment, this move-in-ready home checks all the boxes.

17. 2026-03-27
    historical
18. 2026-03-13
    status Active
19. 2026-02-19
    status Pending Sale
20. 2026-01-25
    status Active
21. 2025-12-11
    status Pending Sale
22. 2025-08-18
    price $75,000
23. 2025-07-09
    listed $85,000 Active
24. 2024-11-12
    historical
25. 2024-08-15
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$1,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,463
• − Management: −$1,463
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $6,686
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,605
• After-tax cash flow: $5,830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Tejon Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600026
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,019
• Composite: 25.15/100
• National rank: #7519
• State rank: #361 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lebec

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1210
• US rank: #26134

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B+ Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lebec, CA
• Population (ZIP): 900

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 11% Asian 10% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 7% German 5% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Korean 9% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.29%
• Current HPI: 343.2452
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $75,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-02-19 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-01-25 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-12-11 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $75,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listed $85,000 CRMLS
• 2024-11-12 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-08-15 Listed $85,000 CRMLS