4728 Trail Lake Dr · Fort Worth, TX 76133

$148,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,545 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1951 0.26 ac lot Est $286k · 48% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors! Unlock the potential at 4728 Trail Lake Dr in Fort Worth! This property is the perfect opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build sweat equity. The home offers a functional layout with plenty of space and the potential to be converted into a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home with the right vision. While the property does need TLC and updates, the bones are there for a great transformation. With some renovation and creativity, this home could be turned into a fantastic primary residence, rental property, or resale project. Located in an established neighborhood with convenient access to shopping, dining, schools, and major highways, this is a chance to cr

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Functional layout
• 0.26 acre lot

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Fort Worth ISD (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #742 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Hills El (math 18% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,536 of 4,322 statewide, top 83%, 690 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 73% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 205 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,529 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.82%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,825
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4804 Overton Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,533 (-1%)	2mo	$294,990	$192	92
4728 Trail Lake Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,545 (0%)	1mo	$148,999	$96	90
4805 Trail Lake Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-1%)	3mo	$199,000	$130	90
4517 Selkirk Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,378 (-11%)	3mo	$362,900	$263	67
3401 Cromart Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,438 (-7%)	2mo	$275,000	$191	64
3200 Medina Ave	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (+3%)	1mo	$284,000	$179	60
3104 Binyon St	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,603 (+4%)	3mo	$307,000	$192	55
3213 Leith Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+7%)	2mo	$264,900	$161	55
4121 Bilglade Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,710 (+11%)	2mo	$480,000	$281	54
4952 Stadium Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (+6%)	1mo	$239,900	$147	54
3504 Westfield Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,730 (+12%)	3mo	$215,000	$124	50
4937 Rutland Ave	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,348 (-13%)	2mo	$250,000	$185	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-8,158
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,814
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76133

• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,101 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$406 /mo · $4,869/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,665

Max offer price $148,999

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4709 Trail Lake Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1654	$2,020	$1.22	24d	1	0.05mi
4804 Trail Lake Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1903	$2,050	$1.08	44d	1	0.17mi
4900 Vega Ct W Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,350	$1.51	43d	1	0.23mi
3745 Willomet Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,795	$1.38	6d	1	0.31mi
3412 Martin Lydon Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1773	$2,400	$1.35	21d	1	0.35mi
3816 Cornish Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1595	$1,320	$0.83	1d	1	0.38mi
3827 Cornish Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,299	$0.91	4d	1	0.42mi
3961 W Spurgeon St Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,185	$1.20	13d	1	0.45mi
3263 Bilglade Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1687	$1,995	$1.18	24d	1	0.49mi
3259 Binyon Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	1.0	1260	$2,200	$1.75	13d	1	0.50mi
4317 Clay Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	1.0	1240	$1,995	$1.61	24d	1	0.52mi
4109 Bilglade Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,900	$1.86	43d	1	0.55mi
4904 Odessa Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,050	$1.51	24d	1	0.56mi
4256 Standish Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,650	$1.19	24d	1	0.56mi
5357 Wonder Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1864	$1,550	$0.83	16d	1	0.58mi
3401 Leith Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,800	$1.26	4d	1	0.59mi
5338 Wonder Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,695	$1.05	43d	1	0.61mi
5352 Wonder Dr Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	1244	$1,495	$1.20	43d	1	0.62mi
3104 Medina Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,850	$1.37	21d	1	0.63mi
3524 South Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1641	$2,795	$1.70	5d	1	0.65mi
4152 Anita Ave Fort Worth, TX	2.0	1.0	1112	$1,995	$1.79	18d	1	0.66mi
4228 Winfield Ave Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1486	$3,500	$2.36	18d	1	0.72mi
3120 Covert Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1701	$2,075	$1.22	43d	1	0.72mi
5303 Wooten Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1524	$1,750	$1.15	43d	1	0.73mi
5301 Wooten Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1524	$1,750	$1.15	24d	1	0.73mi
4151 SW Loop 820 Fort Worth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1068	$1,564	$1.46	1d	40	0.73mi
2908 Binyon Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	1.0	1249	$1,775	$1.42	24d	1	0.74mi
4129 Winfield Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$2,580	$1.76	2d	1	0.77mi
2800 W Fuller Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	1.5	1161	$1,650	$1.42	43d	1	0.84mi
4908 Inverness Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1770	$1,750	$0.99	24d	1	0.85mi
4009 Anita Ave Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1771	$3,800	$2.15	18d	1	0.88mi
3513 Wosley Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1688	$1,975	$1.17	43d	1	0.88mi
2800 Sadler Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1811	$2,300	$1.27	43d	1	0.90mi
3511 Corto Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	2036	$3,800	$1.87	3d	1	0.91mi
5505 Wonder Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	2018	$2,155	$1.07	2d	1	0.92mi
4012 Boyd Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,695	$1.72	4d	1	0.93mi
4806 South Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,900	$1.32	43d	1	0.94mi
4310 Gorman Dr Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,675	$1.24	43d	1	0.98mi
4305 Gorman Dr #1 Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,399	$1.28	43d	1	1.01mi
4302 Segura Ct N Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,700	$1.21	18d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-29
   soldstatus
2. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-07
   price $148,999
4. 2026-03-31
   price $149,900
5. 2026-03-19
   price $155,000
6. 2026-03-14
   price $165,000
7. 2026-03-05
   listed $175,000 Active
8. 2009-02-09
   soldstatus
9. 2008-06-09
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,869 · $406/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,869 · $406/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$4,869
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,017
• − Management: −$2,017
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $2,090
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$501
• After-tax cash flow: $3,632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Worth ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819700
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $42,109
• Composite: 19.61/100
• National rank: #8753
• State rank: #742 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,958
• Household income: $75,523
• Rent vs Own: 37.9% rent · 62.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2000.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% White 34% Black 21% Two or more races 19% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -196.95%
• Current HPI: 293.8679
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.20%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-04-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $148,999 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $155,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2009-02-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,869 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.