316 Balleycastle Dr · Milam, TX 75959

$97,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1970 0.29 ac lot $3/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Affordable Lake Area Living with Room to Roam! This affordable 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers the perfect mix of comfort, outdoor living, and functionality! Enjoy a huge covered outdoor sitting area and covered back porch — perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or enjoying peaceful country evenings. The completely fenced yard provides privacy and plenty of space for kids, pets, or gatherings. Property features include a roof-over mobile home for added protection and efficiency, a large covered carport parking area, screened-in porch, storage building, and tons of storage throughout. There's even an additional sleeping area for guests or extra space needs. A fish cleaning station makes th

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Fenced yard
• Storage building

Tags

• COVERED OUTDOOR SITTING AREA
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• FENCED YARD
• LARGE COVERED CARPORT
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• STORAGE BUILDING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $40 (about $3.33/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking
• Home design: Single-family residence in the Shamrock Shores subdivision; Residential property
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Shed on property

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating
• Interior features: Washer and dryer included; Carpet and laminate flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($991 rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 1.9% in Milam — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,169 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hemphill ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($674 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Sabine County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,037 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.38%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $27,784
• Equity at exit: $48,019

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.83×
• Total profit: $77,145
• Equity at exit: $77,430

Cash invested: $27,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75959

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $991 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$511
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $448/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $750

Max offer price $97,500

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,375
• Closing costs: $2,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,500 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,500 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,500 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,500 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,500 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $97,500 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $97,500 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,500 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,500 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $97,500 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $97,500 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,500 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,500 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,500 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    listed $97,500 Active
16. 2021-10-20
    soldstatus
17. 2021-10-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $448 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,336/yr (+$111/mo · 297.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,894
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,462
• − Property taxes: −$448
• − Insurance: −$488
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$951
• − Management: −$951
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$2,836
• Taxable income: $721
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$173
• After-tax cash flow: $2,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemphill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822890
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,330
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5821
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

Livability — Milam

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1169
• US rank: #20453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 842

Population outlook (Sabine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,354 people
• By 2030: 8,806 · -5.9%
• By 2040: 7,871 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 7,224 · -22.8%
• By 2075: 6,351 · -32.1%
• By 2100: 5,465 · -41.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sabine

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+78.5) · D 10.6% · R 89.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -54.8pp · 2024: -78.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+78.5 2020: R+75.0 2016: R+72.8 2012: R+63.9 2008: R+54.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.75%
• Current HPI: 91.8797
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $97,500 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2021-10-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-10-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $448 · +12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.