13820 Flay Ave N · Hugo, MN 55038

$265,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Townhouse public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2000 1,698 sqft lot $178/sqft · 24% below area Est $348k · 24% under $238/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained end-unit townhome offering the perfect blend of comfort, space, and privacy. Featuring spacious bedrooms and bathrooms, this home is ideal for families, professionals, or anyone seeking low-maintenance living in a peaceful setting. The primary suite is a true retreat, complete with a generous walk-in closet and a private full en-suite bathroom, providing both comfort and convenience. With Two additional bathrooms offering flexibility for family and guests in the home as well, Enjoy cozy evenings by the fireplace, or unwind while taking in views of the serene wooded area that provides added privacy and a natural backdrop. This home benefits from being Conveniently located near grocery stores, restaurants, and everyday amenities. And offers the perfect balance of tranquility and accessibility — a place you’ll love coming home to.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Views of wooded area
• End-unit townhome

Tags

• END-UNIT TOWNHOME
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE FULL EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• VIEWS OF WOODED AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $265k).
• Recommended offer: $257k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.1% in Hugo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#314 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• White Bear Lake School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #83 of 301 in MN (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 279 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $265k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $257,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.00%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,479
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -23.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-27,055
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,762
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55038

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,798 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,694/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$238
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,484

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4631 Rosemary Way Hugo, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$2,800	$2.91	1d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $238 · $2,856/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-20
   price $265,000 898-char remark

   Show marketing remark (898 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully maintained end-unit townhome offering the perfect blend of comfort, space, and privacy. Featuring spacious bedrooms and bathrooms, this home is ideal for families, professionals, or anyone seeking low-maintenance living in a peaceful setting. The primary suite is a true retreat, complete with a generous walk-in closet and a private full en-suite bathroom, providing both comfort and convenience. With Two additional bathrooms offering flexibility for family and guests in the home as well, Enjoy cozy evenings by the fireplace, or unwind while taking in views of the serene wooded area that provides added privacy and a natural backdrop. This home benefits from being Conveniently located near grocery stores, restaurants, and everyday amenities. And offers the perfect balance of tranquility and accessibility — a place you’ll love coming home to.

2. 2026-03-31
   listed $270,000 Active 898-char remark

   Show marketing remark (898 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully maintained end-unit townhome offering the perfect blend of comfort, space, and privacy. Featuring spacious bedrooms and bathrooms, this home is ideal for families, professionals, or anyone seeking low-maintenance living in a peaceful setting. The primary suite is a true retreat, complete with a generous walk-in closet and a private full en-suite bathroom, providing both comfort and convenience. With Two additional bathrooms offering flexibility for family and guests in the home as well, Enjoy cozy evenings by the fireplace, or unwind while taking in views of the serene wooded area that provides added privacy and a natural backdrop. This home benefits from being Conveniently located near grocery stores, restaurants, and everyday amenities. And offers the perfect balance of tranquility and accessibility — a place you’ll love coming home to.

3. 2016-02-25
   soldstatus $155,000 Sold 177-char remark

   Show marketing remark (177 chars)

   Privacy treed end unit. Open Porch. Generous 3 brs & storage with 3 baths, attached dbl garage. Enjoy 3 sided fireplace plus w/o patio. Very pleasing treat to see and enjoy.

4. 2016-02-25
   soldstatus $155,000

   Show marketing remark (177 chars)

   Privacy treed end unit. Open Porch. Generous 3 brs & storage with 3 baths, attached dbl garage. Enjoy 3 sided fireplace plus w/o patio. Very pleasing treat to see and enjoy.

5. 2015-12-28
   status Pending 177-char remark

   Show marketing remark (177 chars)

   Privacy treed end unit. Open Porch. Generous 3 brs & storage with 3 baths, attached dbl garage. Enjoy 3 sided fireplace plus w/o patio. Very pleasing treat to see and enjoy.

6. 2015-12-15
   historical 177-char remark

   Show marketing remark (177 chars)

   Privacy treed end unit. Open Porch. Generous 3 brs & storage with 3 baths, attached dbl garage. Enjoy 3 sided fireplace plus w/o patio. Very pleasing treat to see and enjoy.

7. 2015-09-25
   price $159,000 177-char remark

   Show marketing remark (177 chars)

   Privacy treed end unit. Open Porch. Generous 3 brs & storage with 3 baths, attached dbl garage. Enjoy 3 sided fireplace plus w/o patio. Very pleasing treat to see and enjoy.

8. 2015-09-15
   price $162,000 177-char remark

   Show marketing remark (177 chars)

   Privacy treed end unit. Open Porch. Generous 3 brs & storage with 3 baths, attached dbl garage. Enjoy 3 sided fireplace plus w/o patio. Very pleasing treat to see and enjoy.

9. 2015-08-20
   price $167,000 177-char remark

   Show marketing remark (177 chars)

   Privacy treed end unit. Open Porch. Generous 3 brs & storage with 3 baths, attached dbl garage. Enjoy 3 sided fireplace plus w/o patio. Very pleasing treat to see and enjoy.

10. 2015-06-18
    listed $170,000 Active 177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (177 chars)

    Privacy treed end unit. Open Porch. Generous 3 brs & storage with 3 baths, attached dbl garage. Enjoy 3 sided fireplace plus w/o patio. Very pleasing treat to see and enjoy.

11. 2001-06-09
    soldstatus $160,000
12. 2001-01-02
    soldstatus $151,775
13. 2001-01-02
    soldstatus $151,775
14. 2000-08-30
    historical
15. 2000-08-29
    listed $147,705
16. 2000-07-06
    soldstatus $61,455
17. 1998-09-30
    soldstatus $169,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,694 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,831 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$137/yr (+$11/mo · 5.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$2,694
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,686
• − Management: −$2,686
• − HOA: −$2,856
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$1,228
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$295
• After-tax cash flow: $3,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: White Bear Lake School District
• NCES district ID: 2742360
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $73,051
• Composite: 45.78/100
• National rank: #2564
• State rank: #83 of 301 in MN

Livability — Hugo

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #7032

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hugo, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 25,061
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 25,061
• Household income: $130,931
• Rent vs Own: 8.6% rent · 91.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 222.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Lithuanian 7% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.33%
• Current HPI: 223.6524
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+56.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $265,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $270,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2016-02-25 Sold (MLS) $155,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-28 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-25 Price Changed $159,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-15 Price Changed $162,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-20 Price Changed $167,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-18 Listed $170,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2001-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $151,775 Public Records
• 2001-01-02 Sold (MLS) $151,775 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-08-30 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-08-29 Listed $147,705 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $61,455 Public Records
• 1998-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $169,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,694 · -4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.