23290 Custom House Rd · Deal Island, MD 21821

$299,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 229 Days on market

Built 2008 2.13 ac lot $125/sqft · 47% below area Est $561k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for peace, tranquility, and true Eastern Shore living? Welcome home. This unique 5-bedroom retreat on Deal Island is still in its teenage years and ready to meet its next chapter. Lovingly cared for by the original owner since completion in 2008, this 2,400-sq-ft home blends comfort, privacy, and value rarely found in this setting. Tucked into its own private pocket of mature trees and marsh, the property spans just over 2 acres—perfectly balanced with usable yard space and low-maintenance natural beauty. Spend less time on upkeep and more time enjoying small beaches, boat launches, fishing, bird-watching, and peaceful scenic walks just moments away. Inside, the first floor offers three bedrooms—including a primary suite with en-suite bath and walk-in closet—plus a full hall bath and a bonus room for flexible use. A generous laundry/utility room provides side entry and flows into an efficient kitchen with heat-resistant Corian countertops and dining space. Off the dining area, a screened-in porch overlooks the serene backyard, while the spacious living room welcomes you from the extended covered front porch poised for daytime sunshine. Upstairs offers two oversized bedrooms and a convenient half bath. Hard flooring throughout the main level, thoughtful design, and natural light elevate everyday living, all wrapped in a home under 20 years old. The potential here is exceptional—ample indoor space, a private outdoor setting, minimal-traffic street, and sweeping views where the Nanticoke, Wicomico, and Manokin Rivers meet the Chesapeake Bay and Tangier Sound. Though tucked away, you're minutes from Deal Island Harbor Beach and its westerly sunsets, and surrounded by 13,000+ acres of protected natural land within the Deal Island Wildlife Management Area—perfect for paddling, birding, and exploring. While it feels like a getaway, you're just 20 minutes from Princess Anne and under an hour to Salisbury and Pocomoke for healthcare, schools, dining, and shopping. Maryland, Delaware, and Chincoteague beaches are a little over an hour away—close enough for weekend escapes, far enough to savor quiet coastal life. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to claim your own peaceful slice of the Shore. Call today to schedule your private tour!

Key facts

• Usable yard space
• Screened-in porch
• Natural light

Tags

• PRIVATE POCKET OF MATURE TREES
• USABLE YARD SPACE
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• HARD FLOORING
• NATURAL LIGHT
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-845 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (49.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (36.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (49.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#445 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Somerset County Public Schools (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #22 of 24 in MD (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Somerset County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 229 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $300k implies a 1400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,658 (49.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 229 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.98%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $561,136
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -46.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23391 Custom House Rd	0.21mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+8%)	17mo	$395,000	$152	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $109,720
• Equity at exit: $270,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.36×
• Total profit: $365,808
• Equity at exit: $582,640

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21821

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,895 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,611/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-845

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,964

Max offer price $150,658

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 229 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 228 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 227 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 226 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 224 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 223 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 221 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 220 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 219 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $299,900 Active 218 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,900 Active 213 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,900 Active 212 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,900 Active 211 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $309,900 Active 210 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    price $309,900 2311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2311 chars)

    Looking for peace, tranquility, and true Eastern Shore living? Welcome home. This unique 5-bedroom retreat on Deal Island is still in its teenage years and ready to meet its next chapter. Lovingly cared for by the original owner since completion in 2008, this 2,400-sq-ft home blends comfort, privacy, and value rarely found in this setting. Tucked into its own private pocket of mature trees and marsh, the property spans just over 2 acres—perfectly balanced with usable yard space and low-maintenance natural beauty. Spend less time on upkeep and more time enjoying small beaches, boat launches, fishing, bird-watching, and peaceful scenic walks just moments away. Inside, the first floor offers three bedrooms—including a primary suite with en-suite bath and walk-in closet—plus a full hall bath and a bonus room for flexible use. A generous laundry/utility room provides side entry and flows into an efficient kitchen with heat-resistant Corian countertops and dining space. Off the dining area, a screened-in porch overlooks the serene backyard, while the spacious living room welcomes you from the extended covered front porch poised for daytime sunshine. Upstairs offers two oversized bedrooms and a convenient half bath. Hard flooring throughout the main level, thoughtful design, and natural light elevate everyday living, all wrapped in a home under 20 years old. The potential here is exceptional—ample indoor space, a private outdoor setting, minimal-traffic street, and sweeping views where the Nanticoke, Wicomico, and Manokin Rivers meet the Chesapeake Bay and Tangier Sound. Though tucked away, you're minutes from Deal Island Harbor Beach and its westerly sunsets, and surrounded by 13,000+ acres of protected natural land within the Deal Island Wildlife Management Area—perfect for paddling, birding, and exploring. While it feels like a getaway, you're just 20 minutes from Princess Anne and under an hour to Salisbury and Pocomoke for healthcare, schools, dining, and shopping. Maryland, Delaware, and Chincoteague beaches are a little over an hour away—close enough for weekend escapes, far enough to savor quiet coastal life. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to claim your own peaceful slice of the Shore. Call today to schedule your private tour!

16. 2026-02-05
    price $319,900 2311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2311 chars)

    Looking for peace, tranquility, and true Eastern Shore living? Welcome home. This unique 5-bedroom retreat on Deal Island is still in its teenage years and ready to meet its next chapter. Lovingly cared for by the original owner since completion in 2008, this 2,400-sq-ft home blends comfort, privacy, and value rarely found in this setting. Tucked into its own private pocket of mature trees and marsh, the property spans just over 2 acres—perfectly balanced with usable yard space and low-maintenance natural beauty. Spend less time on upkeep and more time enjoying small beaches, boat launches, fishing, bird-watching, and peaceful scenic walks just moments away. Inside, the first floor offers three bedrooms—including a primary suite with en-suite bath and walk-in closet—plus a full hall bath and a bonus room for flexible use. A generous laundry/utility room provides side entry and flows into an efficient kitchen with heat-resistant Corian countertops and dining space. Off the dining area, a screened-in porch overlooks the serene backyard, while the spacious living room welcomes you from the extended covered front porch poised for daytime sunshine. Upstairs offers two oversized bedrooms and a convenient half bath. Hard flooring throughout the main level, thoughtful design, and natural light elevate everyday living, all wrapped in a home under 20 years old. The potential here is exceptional—ample indoor space, a private outdoor setting, minimal-traffic street, and sweeping views where the Nanticoke, Wicomico, and Manokin Rivers meet the Chesapeake Bay and Tangier Sound. Though tucked away, you're minutes from Deal Island Harbor Beach and its westerly sunsets, and surrounded by 13,000+ acres of protected natural land within the Deal Island Wildlife Management Area—perfect for paddling, birding, and exploring. While it feels like a getaway, you're just 20 minutes from Princess Anne and under an hour to Salisbury and Pocomoke for healthcare, schools, dining, and shopping. Maryland, Delaware, and Chincoteague beaches are a little over an hour away—close enough for weekend escapes, far enough to savor quiet coastal life. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to claim your own peaceful slice of the Shore. Call today to schedule your private tour!

17. 2025-11-01
    listed $329,900 Active 2311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2311 chars)

    Looking for peace, tranquility, and true Eastern Shore living? Welcome home. This unique 5-bedroom retreat on Deal Island is still in its teenage years and ready to meet its next chapter. Lovingly cared for by the original owner since completion in 2008, this 2,400-sq-ft home blends comfort, privacy, and value rarely found in this setting. Tucked into its own private pocket of mature trees and marsh, the property spans just over 2 acres—perfectly balanced with usable yard space and low-maintenance natural beauty. Spend less time on upkeep and more time enjoying small beaches, boat launches, fishing, bird-watching, and peaceful scenic walks just moments away. Inside, the first floor offers three bedrooms—including a primary suite with en-suite bath and walk-in closet—plus a full hall bath and a bonus room for flexible use. A generous laundry/utility room provides side entry and flows into an efficient kitchen with heat-resistant Corian countertops and dining space. Off the dining area, a screened-in porch overlooks the serene backyard, while the spacious living room welcomes you from the extended covered front porch poised for daytime sunshine. Upstairs offers two oversized bedrooms and a convenient half bath. Hard flooring throughout the main level, thoughtful design, and natural light elevate everyday living, all wrapped in a home under 20 years old. The potential here is exceptional—ample indoor space, a private outdoor setting, minimal-traffic street, and sweeping views where the Nanticoke, Wicomico, and Manokin Rivers meet the Chesapeake Bay and Tangier Sound. Though tucked away, you're minutes from Deal Island Harbor Beach and its westerly sunsets, and surrounded by 13,000+ acres of protected natural land within the Deal Island Wildlife Management Area—perfect for paddling, birding, and exploring. While it feels like a getaway, you're just 20 minutes from Princess Anne and under an hour to Salisbury and Pocomoke for healthcare, schools, dining, and shopping. Maryland, Delaware, and Chincoteague beaches are a little over an hour away—close enough for weekend escapes, far enough to savor quiet coastal life. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to claim your own peaceful slice of the Shore. Call today to schedule your private tour!

18. 2007-03-23
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,611 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,940 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: +$329/yr (+$27/mo · 12.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$2,611
• − Insurance: −$6,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,819
• − Management: −$1,819
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$15,652
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,756
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,381/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerset County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400570
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $38,810
• Composite: 14.73/100
• National rank: #9396
• State rank: #22 of 24 in MD

Livability — Deal Island

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #445
• US rank: #25171

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Deal Island, MD
• Population (ZIP): 736

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,474 people
• By 2030: 23,547 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 21,498 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 20,427 · -16.5%
• By 2075: 16,594 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 12,132 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 3% Polish 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: R (+17.4) · D 40.2% · R 57.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: -17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+17.9 2012: R+2.5 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 48.66%
• Current HPI: 299.89
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+1449.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $309,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $319,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-01 Listed $329,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,611 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.