8754 NW 37th Cir · Gainesville, FL 32653

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1988 4,356 sqft lot $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy easy living in this inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the highly desirable Turkey Creek Forest 55+ community. This light and bright home features a beautiful enclosed sunroom at the front of the home, surrounded by windows that fill the space with natural light—perfect for morning coffee, reading, or relaxing with friends. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable layout with thoughtful touches including a charming window above the kitchen sink and a built-in dining room cabinet that adds both character and convenient storage. A brand new hot water heater offers added peace of mind. Turkey Creek Forest is known for its active and welcoming lifestyle, offering residents a wide variety of amenities and activities including a clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, and social events throughout the year. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence or a low-maintenance Florida retreat, this home offers comfort, charm, and a wonderful community atmosphere.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Enclosed sunroom
• Tennis courts

Tags

• ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• BUILT-IN DINING ROOM CABINET
• BRAND NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• TENNIS COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($137/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: William S. Talbot Elem School (math 58% / reading 65%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 631 students, 38% FRL); A. L. Mebane Middle School (math 36% / reading 40%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 332 students, 61% FRL); Santa Fe High School (math 35% / reading 56%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,154 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.25%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-31,573
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-26,767
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32653

• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $865/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,586

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $68	+0% $11	+5% $-45	+10% $-101
Rent	-10% $-115	-5% $-52	+0% $11	+5% $75	+10% $138
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $62	base $11	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8479 NW 38th Dr Gainesville, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	23d	1	0.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 85 DOM
18. 2026-04-08
    price $199,000 986-char remark

    Show marketing remark (986 chars)

    Enjoy easy living in this inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the highly desirable Turkey Creek Forest 55+ community. This light and bright home features a beautiful enclosed sunroom at the front of the home, surrounded by windows that fill the space with natural light—perfect for morning coffee, reading, or relaxing with friends. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable layout with thoughtful touches including a charming window above the kitchen sink and a built-in dining room cabinet that adds both character and convenient storage. A brand new hot water heater offers added peace of mind. Turkey Creek Forest is known for its active and welcoming lifestyle, offering residents a wide variety of amenities and activities including a clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, and social events throughout the year. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence or a low-maintenance Florida retreat, this home offers comfort, charm, and a wonderful community atmosphere.

19. 2026-03-06
    listed $215,000 Active 986-char remark

    Show marketing remark (986 chars)

    Enjoy easy living in this inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the highly desirable Turkey Creek Forest 55+ community. This light and bright home features a beautiful enclosed sunroom at the front of the home, surrounded by windows that fill the space with natural light—perfect for morning coffee, reading, or relaxing with friends. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable layout with thoughtful touches including a charming window above the kitchen sink and a built-in dining room cabinet that adds both character and convenient storage. A brand new hot water heater offers added peace of mind. Turkey Creek Forest is known for its active and welcoming lifestyle, offering residents a wide variety of amenities and activities including a clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, and social events throughout the year. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence or a low-maintenance Florida retreat, this home offers comfort, charm, and a wonderful community atmosphere.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $865 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,652 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$786/yr (+$66/mo · 90.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$865
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,317
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$796
• After-tax cash flow: $933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, FL
• City population: 188,348
• Population (ZIP): 15,457

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -149.00%
• Current HPI: 247.4137
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $865 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.