6158 Lonestar Rd · Fayetteville, NC 28303

$164,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2007 Est $184k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your charming new home! This beautifully maintained and updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence is ready for you to move in. You'll love the LVP flooring that flows throughout the living spaces, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The cozy galley kitchen is equipped with a refrigerator, range, and dishwasher, making meal prep a breeze. Additionally, you'll appreciate the spacious living room, conveniently located just off the kitchen. This property is available for sale separately or as a Portfolio 5 House Portfolio Price $827K 6158 Lonestar, 6126 Lonestar, 6124 Lonestar, 310 Nugget Ct & 836 Durwood Cir

Key facts

• Built 2007
• Listed 46 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Range
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout; Window coverings and blinds; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry with washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-117/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.9% in Fayetteville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westover Middle (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #396 of 475 statewide, top 84%, 784 students, 100% FRL); Westover High (math 42% / reading 39%, grade F, #387 of 535 statewide, top 73%, 1,202 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $165k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,326 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.25%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,184
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
284 Bonanza Dr	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,164 (+2%)	1mo	$184,800	$159	74
805 Maverick Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,153 (+1%)	14mo	$206,500	$179	72
814 Maverick Ct	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,188 (+4%)	7mo	$177,500	$149	68
6018 Concho Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-2%)	12mo	$208,000	$186	65
6131 Lonestar Rd	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,290 (+13%)	11mo	$183,000	$142	62
870 Bedrock Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,239 (+8%)	10mo	$211,000	$170	61
251 Shads Ford Blvd	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,147 (+0%)	8mo	$185,000	$161	56
809 Fresno Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,283 (+12%)	15mo	$142,000	$111	54
7213 Tollhouse Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,196 (+4%)	16mo	$212,000	$177	45
5318 Flagstone Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,270 (+11%)	7mo	$175,000	$138	44
6342 Bent Tree Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,251 (+9%)	15mo	$223,000	$178	40
5131 Longbranch Dr	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,291 (+13%)	5mo	$190,000	$147	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-27,299
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-24,397
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28303

• Home prices YoY: -25.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,443 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,598/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,456

Max offer price $163,178

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6213 Sabine Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1092	$1,175	$1.08	23d	1	0.08mi
890 Bedrock Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.5	1484	$1,650	$1.11	23d	1	0.21mi
6033 Santa Fe Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1325	$1,500	$1.13	23d	1	0.39mi
111 Grande Oaks Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1205	$1,645	$1.37	13d	46	0.51mi
338 Summer Hill Rd Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1474	$1,550	$1.05	23d	1	0.75mi
6445 Independence Pl Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1106	$1,779	$1.61	13d	18	0.83mi
5650 Netherfield Pl Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,410	$1.37	13d	38	0.85mi
513 Roundtree Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,775	$1.33	23d	1	0.85mi
6510 Cissna Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,095	$1.00	13d	1	0.93mi
307 Family Lodge Dr Unit 5 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,100	$0.92	13d	1	0.96mi
6521 Cissna Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,375	$0.94	13d	1	0.97mi
205 Brookford Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,640	$1.37	23d	1	0.98mi
246 Partners Way Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,295	$1.18	23d	1	0.98mi
726 Windy Hill Cir Unit 726-C Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,099	$1.00	23d	1	0.99mi
3639 Dornoch Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,025	$1.02	23d	1	0.99mi
709 Windy Hill Cir Unit 709-D Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,099	$1.00	23d	1	1.02mi
3633 Dornoch Dr Apt E Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,025	$1.02	23d	1	1.02mi
230 Sawtooth Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,550	$1.49	13d	14	1.02mi
3627 Dornoch Dr Apt A Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,025	$1.02	23d	1	1.05mi
3627 Dornoch Dr Apt E Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$950	$0.95	23d	1	1.05mi
718 Windy Hill Cir Unit 718-B Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,099	$1.00	13d	1	1.06mi
716 Windy Hill Cir Unit 716-A Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,025	$0.93	23d	1	1.06mi
5414 Plateau Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,595	$1.43	23d	1	1.08mi
3619 Dornoch Dr Apt A Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,025	$1.02	13d	1	1.09mi
5725 Ivanhoe Ct Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,300	$1.35	13d	6	1.11mi
7526 Bridgeman Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,450	$1.12	23d	1	1.14mi
3311 Woodhill Ln Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1195	$1,730	$1.45	13d	42	1.16mi
5410 Laramie Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,600	$1.11	13d	1	1.20mi
244 Wickford Ct Unit 6 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	1141	$995	$0.87	23d	1	1.23mi
7514 Telfair Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1204	$1,300	$1.08	23d	1	1.23mi
6471 Yadkin Rd Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	900	$750	$0.83	23d	1	1.24mi
267 Waterdown Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,325	$1.01	23d	1	1.25mi
6467 Yadkin Rd Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	900	$850	$0.94	23d	1	1.26mi
7252 Ainsley St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1265	$1,299	$1.03	23d	1	1.27mi
824 Danish Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,400	$1.07	23d	1	1.29mi
422 Jamestown Ave Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1409	$2,000	$1.42	23d	1	1.29mi
422 Jamestown Ave Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1409	$1,650	$1.17	13d	1	1.29mi
7176 Fillyaw Rd Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	900	$925	$1.03	23d	1	1.29mi
349 Waterdown Dr #5 Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,350	$1.03	23d	1	1.30mi
1429 Bozeman Loop Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$1,500	$1.50	13d	24	1.30mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   price $164,900
3. 2026-05-01
   price $173,900
4. 2026-04-01
   listed $184,900 Active
5. 2026-02-13
   price $189,000
6. 2025-10-28
   price $195,000
7. 2025-10-01
   price $199,900
8. 2025-09-09
   price $220,000
9. 2025-08-21
   listed $227,500 Active
10. 2023-10-28
    historical $1,100
11. 2023-10-21
    listed $1,100
12. 2022-08-18
    historical
13. 2022-08-17
    status Active
14. 2022-05-18
    status Pending
15. 2022-05-16
    listed $171,738
16. 2022-05-07
    price $171,738
17. 2022-05-05
    listed $159,400 Active
18. 2022-04-14
    historical
19. 2022-01-04
    listed $149,900 Active
20. 2020-06-03
    soldstatus $98,500
21. 2020-05-20
    listed $100,000
22. 2020-05-14
    historical
23. 2020-03-08
    listed $109,900
24. 2017-09-07
    soldstatus $62,000
25. 2016-01-18
    listed $69,900
26. 2015-11-18
    historical
27. 2015-01-27
    listed $110,000
28. 2006-12-27
    soldstatus $19,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,598 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,598 · $216/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$2,598
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,386
• − Management: −$1,386
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$2,908
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$698
• After-tax cash flow: $581/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NC
• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 30,965
• Household income: $58,223
• Rent vs Own: 52.9% rent · 47.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1370.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 37% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.14%
• Current HPI: 226.5097
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.01%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+745.6% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $164,900 LPRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $173,900 LPRMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $184,900 LPRMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $189,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $195,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $199,900 LPRMLS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $220,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $227,500 LPRMLS
• 2023-10-28 Rental Removed $1,100 APPFOLIO
• 2023-10-21 Listed for Rent $1,100 APPFOLIO
• 2022-08-18 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2022-08-17 Relisted — TMLS
• 2022-05-18 Pending — TMLS
• 2022-05-16 Listed $171,738 LPRMLS
• 2022-05-07 Price Changed $171,738 TMLS
• 2022-05-05 Listed $159,400 TMLS
• 2022-04-14 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2022-01-04 Listed $149,900 TMLS
• 2020-06-03 Sold (MLS) $98,500 TMLS
• 2020-05-20 Listed $100,000 TMLS
• 2020-05-14 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2020-03-08 Listed $109,900 TMLS
• 2017-09-07 Sold (MLS) $62,000 TMLS
• 2016-01-18 Listed $69,900 TMLS
• 2015-11-18 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2015-01-27 Listed $110,000 TMLS
• 2006-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,598 · +52.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.