BELLVUE Plan · Godley, TX 76044

$279,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,405 sqft · SingleFamily · 155 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Bellvue is a thoughtfully designed single-story home offering approximately 1,405 sq. ft. of living space with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. A welcoming front porch opens into a defined foyer that leads into an open-concept layout where the kitchen, dining nook, and family room come together in one bright, connected living space, ideal for both daily life and entertaining. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, generous counter space, a centrally located island with sink overlooking the family room, and a walk-in pantry for added storage.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Dining nook
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CENTRALLY LOCATED ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• DINING NOOK

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $333,032.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-582 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#226 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Godley ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Legacy El (math 39% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 408 students, 32% FRL); Godley H S (math 27% / reading 51%, grade F, #859 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 777 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 780 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 132d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,648 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.49%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,032
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -15.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 S 2nd St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+4%)	1mo	$149,999	$102	70
109 Hackberry Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (-6%)	9mo	$235,000	$178	56
109 S 6th St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,375 (-2%)	14mo	$284,500	$207	56
107 S 6th St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-5%)	11mo	$299,500	$225	54
300 W Godley Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,531 (+9%)	12mo	$265,000	$173	49
214 Rees Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,528 (+9%)	3mo	$319,900	$209	48
303 N Main St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+12%)	21mo	$334,900	$214	46
108 N 2nd St	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,574 (+12%)	12mo	$305,000	$194	43
520 Highpoint Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+8%)	20mo	$249,000	$165	42
109 S Coleman	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-11%)	17mo	$200,000	$160	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-91,006
• Equity at exit: $49,656

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-126,852
• Equity at exit: $28,795

Cash invested: $93,249 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 21 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $299,490 ($184/sqft)
• Median days on market: 83 d
• This list price: 19% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +29.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76044

• Home prices YoY: -12.4%
• Active inventory: 780
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,176 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,746
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$416 /mo · $4,995/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-582

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,913

Max offer price $248,803

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-352	-5% $-467	+0% $-582	+5% $-697	+10% $-812
Rent	-10% $-754	-5% $-668	+0% $-582	+5% $-496	+10% $-410
Rate	-1.0pp $-414	-0.5pp $-497	base $-582	+0.5pp $-668	+1.0pp $-756

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,258
• Closing costs: $9,991
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
812 Rodgers Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,600	$1.49	184d	1	0.25mi
644 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,995	$1.20	184d	1	0.44mi
201 Cliff Ct Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,900	$1.57	151d	1	0.52mi
108 N 6th St Unit 4 Godley, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	0d	1	0.55mi
516 Highpoint Dr Unit A Godley, TX	2.0	1.0	1001	$1,350	$1.35	43d	1	0.61mi
516 Highpoint Dr Unit A Godley, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	71d	1	0.61mi
1032 Fairfax Dr Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,300	$1.38	80d	1	0.87mi
226 Harp Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,300	$1.32	72d	1	0.90mi
226 Harp Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,375	$1.37	131d	1	0.90mi
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1683	$2,499	$1.48	152d	1	1.24mi
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,499	$1.48	157d	1	1.24mi
13404 Balderdash Ct Godley, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	2025	$2,330	$1.15	0d	1	1.25mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Godley, TX 76044
• Financial info: List price $279,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Model/plan home in Godley, TX (BELLVUE)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,405

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: BELLVUE (new construction)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $279,990 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $279,990 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $279,990 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $279,990 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $279,990 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $279,990 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $279,990 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $279,990 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $279,990 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $279,990 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $279,990 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $279,990 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $279,990 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $279,990 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $279,990 Active 140 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $279,990 Active 139 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $279,990 Active 138 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $279,990 Active 137 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $279,990 Active 136 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $279,990 Active 135 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $279,990 Active 134 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $279,990 Active 133 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $279,990 Active 132 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $279,990 Active 131 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $279,990 Active 130 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $279,990 Active 129 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $279,990 Active 128 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $279,990 Active 127 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $279,990 Active 126 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $279,990 Active 125 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $279,990 Active 124 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $279,990 Active 123 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $279,990 Active 122 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $279,990 Active 121 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $279,990 Active 120 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $279,990 Active 119 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 118 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 117 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $279,990 Active 116 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $279,990 Active 115 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $279,990 Active 114 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $279,990 Active 113 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $279,990 Active 112 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $279,990 Active 111 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $279,990 Active 110 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $279,990 Active 109 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $279,990 Active 108 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $279,990 Active 107 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $279,990 Active 106 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $279,990 Active 105 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,655
• − Property taxes: −$4,995
• − Insurance: −$1,665
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,089
• − Management: −$2,089
• − Depreciation: −$9,688
• Taxable loss: −$13,065
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,136
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,025–$21,075 screening

The home is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value increases through exterior painting, landscaping, and a new front door.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both Upgrading the front door — A new front door can improve curb appeal and increase property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Godley El Middle Godley Middle High Godley H S F TX #859/1,632 Nat'l #8,724/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Godley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,332
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5820
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Godley

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #5528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Godley, TX
• County: Johnson · 179,678 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,759
• Household income: $103,795
• Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

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Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.58%
• Current HPI: 259.1029
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Godley, TX 76044
• Financial info: List price $279,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Model/plan home in Godley, TX (BELLVUE)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,405

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: BELLVUE (new construction)