10219 Salem Oaks Dr · Chester, VA 23237

$310,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1988 Est $423k · 27% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

12106 Mathenay Drive, Chester, VA 23831 3 Bedrooms | 2 Bathrooms | 1,356 sq ft | Built 1984 | 0.22-Acre Lot Welcome to this charming single-story ranch home in the established Mathenay Forest neighborhood of Chester! Nestled on a generous 9,627 sq ft lot with mature trees for privacy and shade, this vinyl-sided home with brick foundation offers comfortable, low-maintenance living and fantastic outdoor space. Step out onto the spacious wooden deck & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; perfect for morning coffee, evening dinners, or weekend gatherings. It & acirc; & euro; & trade; s already set up with seating and a large umbrella, overlooking a level, grassy backyard that feels l

Key facts

• Spacious wooden deck
• Brick fireplace
• Heat pump

Tags

• SINGLE STORY RANCH HOME
• SPACIOUS WOODEN DECK
• LEVEL GRASSY BACKYARD
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• HEAT PUMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-328/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in Chester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#170 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $159k; list at $310k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,510 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.38%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $423,280
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10340 Hollyberry Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,232 (-2%)	20mo	$370,000	$166	72
10324 Hollyberry Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,178 (-5%)	18mo	$355,000	$163	66
10407 Hollyberry Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,002 (-12%)	4mo	$400,000	$200	64
5907 Meadowood Ln	0.33mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,241 (-2%)	22mo	$430,000	$192	54
9808 Brenspark Rd	0.46mi	4/2.5	1,996 (-13%)	8mo	$369,950	$185	50
9938 Majorica Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,326 (+2%)	22mo	$320,000	$138	50
6241 Barrister Rd	0.57mi	4/2.0	2,013 (-12%)	2mo	$375,000	$186	50
6784 Arbor Meadows Dr	0.68mi	4/3.5	2,408 (+5%)	9mo	$429,950	$179	48
6767 Arbor Meadows Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,374 (+4%)	19mo	$379,500	$160	46
5709 Centralia Rd	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,078 (-9%)	21mo	$425,000	$205	46
6779 Arbor Meadows Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,346 (+2%)	23mo	$415,000	$177	44
10931 Summer Arbor Ln	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,046 (-11%)	16mo	$395,000	$193	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-52,008
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-47,673
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23237

• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,525 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,208/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,560

Max offer price $305,176

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11348 Benton Pointe Way Chester, VA	3.0	2.5	1609	$2,349	$1.46	44d	1	1.03mi
7001 Pine Orchard Ct Chesterfield, VA	4.0	2.0	1678	$2,300	$1.37	44d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $310,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $310,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $310,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $310,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $310,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $310,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $310,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $310,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,208 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,208 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$3,208
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,424
• − Management: −$2,424
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$5,688
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,365
• After-tax cash flow: $1,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chester

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #5369

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 54,827
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 27,126
• Household income: $79,606
• Rent vs Own: 29.7% rent · 70.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 706.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.73%
• Current HPI: 303.329
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+111.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $310,000 FSBO.com
• 2010-04-28 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-01-01 Listed $245,000 CVRMLS
• 2009-10-27 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2009-10-26 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2009-03-14 Listed $259,500 CVRMLS
• 2009-03-14 Listed $259,500 CVRMLS
• 2008-11-12 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-11-12 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-06-02 Listed $274,950 CVRMLS
• 2008-06-02 Listed $274,950 CVRMLS
• 2008-04-01 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-04-01 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2007-11-26 Listed $289,950 CVRMLS
• 2007-11-26 Listed $289,950 CVRMLS
• 1995-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $158,520 Public Records
• 1991-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $146,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,208 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.