6470 Tumbling Creek Trl · Dallas, TX 75241

$219,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,218 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1972 6,839 sqft lot Est $197k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.3/15.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly renovated 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home perfect for family. Move in ready! Home has new paint, carpet. Large yard with plenty of room. Will consider owner financing. No FHA due to 90 day rule.

Key facts

• Updated finishes
• 6,839 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• UPDATED FINISHES
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• MOVE-IN-READY RESIDENCE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential - Single Family Residence; Property is for sale (MLS status: Active); Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing; No second mortgage reported
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage facing front; One covered garage space; No carport spaces
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Municipal utility district: No
• Home design: Single family residence; Attached property; Built in 1972; One story
• Construction: Brick and siding exterior; Preowned home (built 1972)
• Exterior features: Lot less than 0.5 acre; Lot will subdivide; Directions: Bonnie View Rd to Tioga Dr to Cinnamon Oak Dr to Alta Mesa To Tumbling Creek Dr; Subdivision: Highland Hills West

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom on main level (approx. 10 x 12); Additional bedrooms on main level (approx. 10 x 10, 10 x 10, 9 x 10)
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Six total rooms; One living area; One dining area; Single-story layout
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer information not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-120 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: J N Ervin El (math 17% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,759 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 646 students, 98% FRL); Kennedy-Curry Middle (math 29% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 626 students, 100% FRL); Wilmer-Hutchins H S (math 14% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,020 students, 73% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 34% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dallas ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,362 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.35%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,316
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6415 Cinnamon Oaks Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+6%)	0mo	$220,000	$170	80
6547 Tioga Pl	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,203 (-1%)	2mo	$144,900	$120	78
3110 Palo Alto Dr	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,198 (-2%)	2mo	$150,000	$125	72
6544 Cinnamon Oaks Dr	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,073 (-12%)	2mo	$205,000	$191	71
3474 Pacesetter Dr	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,164 (-4%)	3mo	$189,500	$163	69
3464 Pinebrook Dr	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,149 (-6%)	2mo	$200,000	$174	68
3528 Silverhill Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,203 (-1%)	3mo	$190,000	$158	65
2914 Midway Plaza Blvd	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,347 (+11%)	2mo	$200,000	$148	60
3722 Pinebrook Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,244 (+2%)	4mo	$220,000	$177	54
2934 Morgan Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-11%)	1mo	$175,000	$162	52
3707 Pacesetter Dr	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,100 (-10%)	4mo	$139,900	$127	50
3771 Stagecoach Trl	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,336 (+10%)	2mo	$215,000	$161	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-48,915
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-74,122
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75241

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,954 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$419 /mo · $5,029/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,106

Max offer price $198,614

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4	-5% $-58	+0% $-120	+5% $-183	+10% $-245
Rent	-10% $-275	-5% $-198	+0% $-120	+5% $-43	+10% $34
Rate	-1.0pp $-10	-0.5pp $-65	base $-120	+0.5pp $-177	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3210 Little River Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,950	$1.62	5d	1	0.12mi
6520 Warm Moon Ln Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1237	$1,995	$1.61	5d	1	0.18mi
6327 Hidden Trail Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,795	$1.51	45d	1	0.18mi
3015 Flask Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,875	$1.48	45d	1	0.20mi
6436 Moonhill Dr Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1200	$1,961	$1.63	3d	1	0.25mi
2919 N El Centro Way Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1294	$1,800	$1.39	9d	1	0.40mi
3522 Tioga St Dallas, TX	4.0	3.0	1438	$2,095	$1.46	1d	1	0.43mi
3522 Tioga St Dallas, TX	4.0	3.0	1438	$2,095	$1.46	5d	1	0.43mi
7312 Sierra Way Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1439	$1,900	$1.32	3d	1	0.47mi
6654 Cool Morn Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,300	$1.59	45d	1	0.52mi
3623 Softcloud Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1477	$1,910	$1.29	45d	1	0.61mi
3131 Simpson Stuart Rd Dallas, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$1,694	$1.65	1d	31	0.75mi
3440 Simpson Stuart Rd Dallas, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	942	$2,103	$2.23	3d	9	0.77mi
2525 Lyola St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,895	$1.75	45d	1	0.83mi
2529 Morgan Dr Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	842	$1,650	$1.96	26d	1	0.97mi
5850 Highland Hills Dr Dallas, TX	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	910	$1,097	$1.21	0d	8	0.99mi
5761 Highland Hills Dr Dallas, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,749	$1.68	5d	7	0.99mi
6445 Baraboo Dr Dallas, TX	4.0	1.5	1218	$1,650	$1.35	45d	1	1.07mi
2703 Kool Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,700	$1.36	26d	1	1.15mi
2520 Fatima Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,950	$1.66	9d	1	1.17mi
2111 Crouch Rd Dallas, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	866	$1,277	$1.47	8d	1	1.19mi
5821 Bonnie View Rd Dallas, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,101	$1.34	9d	7	1.19mi
2602 Ripple Rd Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,700	$1.38	45d	1	1.21mi
6347 Racer Summit Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,965	$1.67	26d	1	1.34mi
3806 Castle Hills Dr Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1422	$1,900	$1.34	18d	1	1.35mi
4140 Wilshire Blvd Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,795	$1.60	19d	1	1.36mi
6319 Crosswood Ln Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,060	$1.57	22d	1	1.39mi
3835 Basswood Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,625	$1.62	26d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $219,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,029 · $419/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,029 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$5,029
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,875
• − Management: −$1,875
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$5,151
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,236
• After-tax cash flow: $-210/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6763
• State rank: #559 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dallas

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #1380

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dallas, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 1,168,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,840
• Household income: $53,998
• Rent vs Own: 32.5% rent · 67.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1076.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 8% White 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.36%
• Current HPI: 356.2348
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.75%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+47.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $219,900 NTREIS
• 2019-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-06-28 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-05-09 Pending — NTREIS
• 2019-05-01 Price Changed $147,500 NTREIS
• 2019-04-12 Listed $149,000 NTREIS
• 2019-02-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,029 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.