3294 E Wagon Trl · Hernando, FL 34442

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 932 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1970 0.27 ac lot Est $93k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN READY! This beautiful 3 bedroom + 2 bathroom block home comes fully furnished and stocked with all the kitchen essentials; just bring your toothbrush! The charming exterior includes new paint, plenty of parking with a long driveway, and extra storage space in the detached shed. The charm continues as you enter the home's bright, airy living room that flows perfectly into the large kitchen, which also features a designated dining space. The two bedrooms on the top floor are flooded with natural light, with one bedroom having an en suite bathroom. The second bathroom is also located on the main floor and in the center of the home. Make your way downstairs to the spacious bonus living space, perfect for a game or theater room. Just off the bonus space is the third and most spacious bedroom. Two popular bonus features to this home are the NEW roof (2022) and the mechanical room that doubles as additional storage space. If you're in the market for an affordable, beautiful home just minutes from local shops and dining, this is the home for you! Take advantage of this opportunity to make it your own and call to book your showing TODAY!

Key facts

• Outbuilding workshop
• Completed basement
• 0.27 acre lot

Tags

• COMPLETED BASEMENT
• OUTBUILDING WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, single family; Zoning: MDRMH; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (laundry located in garage)
• Utilities: Private sewer; Electricity available; Water source: see remarks
• Home design: Single family residence; 1 story (listed levels: Two); Facing east
• Construction: Concrete construction; Shingle roof; Basement (finished)
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 120; Lot about 0.27 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances reported
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $797 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.6% vs local median 5.6% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#402 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 444 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.20%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $93,200
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3249 E Buffalo Ln	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (-11%)	2mo	$44,400	$53	62
4590 N Apache Trl	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,002 (+8%)	15mo	$100,000	$100	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $37,083
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.12×
• Total profit: $97,973
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34442

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,841 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,110/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $797

Break-even live

Break-even rent $832

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $85,000 Pending 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $85,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-05-20
   price $85,000
6. 2026-04-22
   price $95,000
7. 2026-03-17
   listed $105,000 Active
8. 2025-03-31
   historical
9. 2025-03-03
   price $181,000
10. 2024-11-14
    price $185,000
11. 2024-07-16
    listed $189,000 Active
12. 2024-05-31
    soldstatus $167,900
13. 2024-05-24
    soldstatus $167,900 Closed 1154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1154 chars)

    MOVE IN READY! This beautiful 3 bedroom + 2 bathroom block home comes fully furnished and stocked with all the kitchen essentials; just bring your toothbrush! The charming exterior includes new paint, plenty of parking with a long driveway, and extra storage space in the detached shed. The charm continues as you enter the home's bright, airy living room that flows perfectly into the large kitchen, which also features a designated dining space. The two bedrooms on the top floor are flooded with natural light, with one bedroom having an en suite bathroom. The second bathroom is also located on the main floor and in the center of the home. Make your way downstairs to the spacious bonus living space, perfect for a game or theater room. Just off the bonus space is the third and most spacious bedroom. Two popular bonus features to this home are the NEW roof (2022) and the mechanical room that doubles as additional storage space. If you're in the market for an affordable, beautiful home just minutes from local shops and dining, this is the home for you! Take advantage of this opportunity to make it your own and call to book your showing TODAY!

14. 2024-04-15
    status Pending 1154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1154 chars)

    MOVE IN READY! This beautiful 3 bedroom + 2 bathroom block home comes fully furnished and stocked with all the kitchen essentials; just bring your toothbrush! The charming exterior includes new paint, plenty of parking with a long driveway, and extra storage space in the detached shed. The charm continues as you enter the home's bright, airy living room that flows perfectly into the large kitchen, which also features a designated dining space. The two bedrooms on the top floor are flooded with natural light, with one bedroom having an en suite bathroom. The second bathroom is also located on the main floor and in the center of the home. Make your way downstairs to the spacious bonus living space, perfect for a game or theater room. Just off the bonus space is the third and most spacious bedroom. Two popular bonus features to this home are the NEW roof (2022) and the mechanical room that doubles as additional storage space. If you're in the market for an affordable, beautiful home just minutes from local shops and dining, this is the home for you! Take advantage of this opportunity to make it your own and call to book your showing TODAY!

15. 2024-04-03
    listed $159,900 Active 1154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1154 chars)

    MOVE IN READY! This beautiful 3 bedroom + 2 bathroom block home comes fully furnished and stocked with all the kitchen essentials; just bring your toothbrush! The charming exterior includes new paint, plenty of parking with a long driveway, and extra storage space in the detached shed. The charm continues as you enter the home's bright, airy living room that flows perfectly into the large kitchen, which also features a designated dining space. The two bedrooms on the top floor are flooded with natural light, with one bedroom having an en suite bathroom. The second bathroom is also located on the main floor and in the center of the home. Make your way downstairs to the spacious bonus living space, perfect for a game or theater room. Just off the bonus space is the third and most spacious bedroom. Two popular bonus features to this home are the NEW roof (2022) and the mechanical room that doubles as additional storage space. If you're in the market for an affordable, beautiful home just minutes from local shops and dining, this is the home for you! Take advantage of this opportunity to make it your own and call to book your showing TODAY!

16. 2015-11-16
    soldstatus $41,500
17. 2009-04-24
    soldstatus $9,000
18. 2009-03-06
    listed $11,900
19. 1993-05-01
    soldstatus $15,000
20. 1990-03-01
    soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,110 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,110 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,110
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,767
• − Management: −$1,767
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $8,788
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,109
• After-tax cash flow: $7,459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #7137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 17,281
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,281
• Household income: $57,259
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 314.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.70%
• Current HPI: 273.3262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+203.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $181,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-14 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-16 Listed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $167,900 Public Records
• 2024-05-24 Sold (MLS) $167,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-03 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records
• 2009-04-24 Sold (MLS) $9,000 RACC
• 2009-03-06 Listed $11,900 RACC
• 1993-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 1990-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,110 · +37.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.