17120 Embers Ave #208 · Lakeville, MN 55024

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,777 sqft · Townhouse public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2002 $370/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful end-unit townhome proudly owned by the original owner! This spacious home features 3 large bedrooms upstairs plus an oversized loft offering flexible living space for a home office, playroom, or second family room. Enjoy the huge oversized garage with plenty of room for storage, hobbies, or additional parking. Fresh paint throughout and brand-new carpet to be installed — buyer gets to choose the carpet color! Fantastic location backing to scenic trails that connect East Lake Trail and North Creek Greenway. * New carpet to be installed in upper level; three bedrooms, loft and hallway area.

Key facts

• Oversized loft
• Scenic trails
• North creek greenway

Tags

• END-UNIT TOWNHOME
• OVERSIZED LOFT
• HUGE OVERSIZED GARAGE
• SCENIC TRAILS
• EAST LAKE TRAIL
• NORTH CREEK GREENWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Pilot to 170th, south on Embers to home
• HOA & community: Community Association Group; Monthly association fee $370; HOA covers hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached tuckunder, insulated garage; 2-car garage (27x20)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Attached residential property; Two levels; Vaulted ceiling(s); Above-grade finished area 1,777
• Construction: Slab foundation; Foundation area 1,084
• Exterior features: Patio; Vinyl exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Freezer; Breakfast bar / informal dining area (kitchen/dining)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary suite; other bedrooms on upper level); Bedroom dimensions include: 16x12, 10x15, 15x11
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Fireplace heating; Central air conditioning; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet; 2nd floor laundry; Primary bedroom suite; Main floor half bath; Separate tub and shower; Double sink in primary; Upper level full bath; Walk-in shower stall; Has fireplace (gas, located in family room)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry room on upper level; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Lakeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#25 in MN, #711 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Farmington Public School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #104 of 301 in MN (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: North Trail Elementary (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #265 of 857 statewide, top 35%, 639 students, 34% FRL); Levi P. Dodge Middle School (math 37% / reading 54%, grade D+, #106 of 258 statewide, top 43%, 721 students, 27% FRL); Farmington High School (math 32% / reading 56%, grade F, #210 of 471 statewide, top 44%, 2,201 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 12% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 325 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $278,941 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.55%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-55,320
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-56,303
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55024

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,789 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,934/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$370
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,927

Max offer price $280,727

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $61	-5% $-24	+0% $-109	+5% $-193	+10% $-278
Rent	-10% $-329	-5% $-219	+0% $-109	+5% $2	+10% $112
Rate	-1.0pp $42	-0.5pp $-32	base $-109	+0.5pp $-186	+1.0pp $-265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17079 Dysart Pl Lakeville, MN	3.0	3.0	1894	$2,795	$1.48	12d	1	0.33mi
17074 Dysart Pl Unit 17074 Lakeville, MN	3.0	2.5	1750	$2,800	$1.60	12d	1	0.36mi
17066 Dysart Pl Unit 17066 Lakeville, MN	3.0	2.5	1894	$2,895	$1.53	21d	1	0.37mi
17040 Dysart Pl Unit 17040 Lakeville, MN	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,700	$1.59	0d	1	0.38mi
5076 161st St W Lakeville, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1186	$2,702	$2.28	0d	14	1.01mi
5181 161st St W Lakeville, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$2,340	$2.24	0d	4	1.06mi
5017 161st St W Unit 5017 Lakeville, MN	2.0	2.5	1895	$3,350	$1.77	16d	1	1.06mi
16106 Duvane Way Lakeville, MN	3.0	3.0	1564	$3,395	$2.17	23d	1	1.15mi
15899 Elmhurst Ln Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$2,667	$2.59	0d	14	1.19mi
18388 English Ave Farmington, MN	2.0	2.0	1544	$1,999	$1.29	45d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $370 · $4,440/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,934 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,146 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: +$212/yr (+$18/mo · 7.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$2,934
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,678
• − Management: −$2,678
• − HOA: −$4,440
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$6,280
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,507
• After-tax cash flow: $205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Farmington Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2711820
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,959
• Composite: 43.93/100
• National rank: #2905
• State rank: #104 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lakeville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #711

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeville, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 64,762
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 37,287
• Household income: $127,280
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 288.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Scottish 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.47%
• Current HPI: 225.6882
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $299,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,934 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.