3186 Buckhorn Ln · Creedmoor, NC 27587

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Manufactured public records · 246 Days on market

Built 1998 3.58 ac lot $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

IMACULATE 1997,2240 SF W/ 2.5 BA DW ON 3.58 AC SECLUDED LOT IN A QUIET RURAL SUBDIVISION. HOME FEATURES SEP DR, FR, & LR. FR HAS CORNER FP W/ WOOD MANTEL. MBA TH HAS CORNER GARDEN TUB & SEP. SHOWER, SPLIT VANITIES. HUGE UTILITY RM W/ CABS AND ADJACENT 1/2 BA. KIT IS LG ENOUGH FOR EAT-IN, HAS TONS OF OAK CABS & BREAKFAST BAR. THIS IS A SUPER NICE PROP. USE 4TH BR AS OFFICE OR STUDY.

Key facts

• Natural landscape
• Backyard gazebo
• Gravel driveway

Tags

• BACKYARD GAZEBO
• GRAVEL DRIVEWAY
• NATURAL LANDSCAPE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-897/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.4% in Creedmoor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#72 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1084 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($134k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 39% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,193 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.23%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-52,766
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-74,793
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27587

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 1084
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,844/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,077

Max offer price $246,796

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9341 Woodlief Rd Wake Forest, NC	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,795	$1.28	10d	1	0.61mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-23
   status Active
3. 2025-11-19
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2025-08-12
   listed $260,000 Active
5. 2025-04-11
   historical
6. 2025-03-09
   status Pending
7. 2024-12-09
   status Active
8. 2024-10-31
   historical
9. 2024-10-30
   price $120,000 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   IMACULATE 1997,2240 SF W/ 2.5 BA DW ON 3.58 AC SECLUDED LOT IN A QUIET RURAL SUBDIVISION. HOME FEATURES SEP DR, FR, & LR. FR HAS CORNER FP W/ WOOD MANTEL. MBA TH HAS CORNER GARDEN TUB & SEP. SHOWER, SPLIT VANITIES. HUGE UTILITY RM W/ CABS AND ADJACENT 1/2 BA. KIT IS LG ENOUGH FOR EAT-IN, HAS TONS OF OAK CABS & BREAKFAST BAR. THIS IS A SUPER NICE PROP. USE 4TH BR AS OFFICE OR STUDY.

10. 2024-10-10
    price $299,999
11. 2024-09-06
    listed $310,000 Active
12. 2024-09-03
    historical
13. 2023-05-26
    soldstatus $282,400 Closed
14. 2023-05-26
    soldstatus $282,500
15. 2023-04-28
    historical Contingent
16. 2023-04-20
    listed $279,900 Active
17. 2023-02-06
    soldstatus $146,000
18. 1999-08-16
    soldstatus $114,000 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    IMACULATE 1997,2240 SF W/ 2.5 BA DW ON 3.58 AC SECLUDED LOT IN A QUIET RURAL SUBDIVISION. HOME FEATURES SEP DR, FR, & LR. FR HAS CORNER FP W/ WOOD MANTEL. MBA TH HAS CORNER GARDEN TUB & SEP. SHOWER, SPLIT VANITIES. HUGE UTILITY RM W/ CABS AND ADJACENT 1/2 BA. KIT IS LG ENOUGH FOR EAT-IN, HAS TONS OF OAK CABS & BREAKFAST BAR. THIS IS A SUPER NICE PROP. USE 4TH BR AS OFFICE OR STUDY.

19. 1999-08-16
    price $165,000 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    IMACULATE 1997,2240 SF W/ 2.5 BA DW ON 3.58 AC SECLUDED LOT IN A QUIET RURAL SUBDIVISION. HOME FEATURES SEP DR, FR, & LR. FR HAS CORNER FP W/ WOOD MANTEL. MBA TH HAS CORNER GARDEN TUB & SEP. SHOWER, SPLIT VANITIES. HUGE UTILITY RM W/ CABS AND ADJACENT 1/2 BA. KIT IS LG ENOUGH FOR EAT-IN, HAS TONS OF OAK CABS & BREAKFAST BAR. THIS IS A SUPER NICE PROP. USE 4TH BR AS OFFICE OR STUDY.

20. 1999-08-16
    soldstatus $114,000 Sold 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    IMACULATE 1997,2240 SF W/ 2.5 BA DW ON 3.58 AC SECLUDED LOT IN A QUIET RURAL SUBDIVISION. HOME FEATURES SEP DR, FR, & LR. FR HAS CORNER FP W/ WOOD MANTEL. MBA TH HAS CORNER GARDEN TUB & SEP. SHOWER, SPLIT VANITIES. HUGE UTILITY RM W/ CABS AND ADJACENT 1/2 BA. KIT IS LG ENOUGH FOR EAT-IN, HAS TONS OF OAK CABS & BREAKFAST BAR. THIS IS A SUPER NICE PROP. USE 4TH BR AS OFFICE OR STUDY.

21. 1999-08-16
    soldstatus $114,000 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    IMACULATE 1997,2240 SF W/ 2.5 BA DW ON 3.58 AC SECLUDED LOT IN A QUIET RURAL SUBDIVISION. HOME FEATURES SEP DR, FR, & LR. FR HAS CORNER FP W/ WOOD MANTEL. MBA TH HAS CORNER GARDEN TUB & SEP. SHOWER, SPLIT VANITIES. HUGE UTILITY RM W/ CABS AND ADJACENT 1/2 BA. KIT IS LG ENOUGH FOR EAT-IN, HAS TONS OF OAK CABS & BREAKFAST BAR. THIS IS A SUPER NICE PROP. USE 4TH BR AS OFFICE OR STUDY.

22. 1999-08-16
    soldstatus $114,000

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    IMACULATE 1997,2240 SF W/ 2.5 BA DW ON 3.58 AC SECLUDED LOT IN A QUIET RURAL SUBDIVISION. HOME FEATURES SEP DR, FR, & LR. FR HAS CORNER FP W/ WOOD MANTEL. MBA TH HAS CORNER GARDEN TUB & SEP. SHOWER, SPLIT VANITIES. HUGE UTILITY RM W/ CABS AND ADJACENT 1/2 BA. KIT IS LG ENOUGH FOR EAT-IN, HAS TONS OF OAK CABS & BREAKFAST BAR. THIS IS A SUPER NICE PROP. USE 4TH BR AS OFFICE OR STUDY.

23. 1999-06-14
    listed $120,000 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    IMACULATE 1997,2240 SF W/ 2.5 BA DW ON 3.58 AC SECLUDED LOT IN A QUIET RURAL SUBDIVISION. HOME FEATURES SEP DR, FR, & LR. FR HAS CORNER FP W/ WOOD MANTEL. MBA TH HAS CORNER GARDEN TUB & SEP. SHOWER, SPLIT VANITIES. HUGE UTILITY RM W/ CABS AND ADJACENT 1/2 BA. KIT IS LG ENOUGH FOR EAT-IN, HAS TONS OF OAK CABS & BREAKFAST BAR. THIS IS A SUPER NICE PROP. USE 4TH BR AS OFFICE OR STUDY.

24. 1999-06-14
    listed $120,000 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    IMACULATE 1997,2240 SF W/ 2.5 BA DW ON 3.58 AC SECLUDED LOT IN A QUIET RURAL SUBDIVISION. HOME FEATURES SEP DR, FR, & LR. FR HAS CORNER FP W/ WOOD MANTEL. MBA TH HAS CORNER GARDEN TUB & SEP. SHOWER, SPLIT VANITIES. HUGE UTILITY RM W/ CABS AND ADJACENT 1/2 BA. KIT IS LG ENOUGH FOR EAT-IN, HAS TONS OF OAK CABS & BREAKFAST BAR. THIS IS A SUPER NICE PROP. USE 4TH BR AS OFFICE OR STUDY.

25. 1996-12-05
    soldstatus $24,500
26. 1995-06-08
    soldstatus $25,000
27. 1994-07-08
    soldstatus $24,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,844 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,132 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$288/yr (+$24/mo · 15.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 39% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,783
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$1,844
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,903
• − Management: −$1,903
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$5,474
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,314
• After-tax cash flow: $417/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wake County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704720
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,509
• Composite: 49.41/100
• National rank: #2010
• State rank: #35 of 178 in NC

Livability — Creedmoor

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #5473

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wake County · 1,216,256 people
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 82,886
• Household income: $133,743
• Rent vs Own: 19.0% rent · 81.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1068.0

Population outlook (Wake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,293,152 people
• By 2030: 1,428,223 · +10.4%
• By 2040: 1,698,188 · +31.3%
• By 2050: 1,955,807 · +51.2%
• By 2075: 2,520,273 · +94.9%
• By 2100: 2,893,335 · +123.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.5) · D 61.9% · R 36.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.1pp toward D · 2008: 14.4pp · 2024: 25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.5 2020: D+26.4 2016: D+20.5 2012: D+10.2 2008: D+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.50%
• Current HPI: 222.174
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.00%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+961.2% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-02-23 Relisted — TMLS
• 2025-11-19 Contingent — TMLS
• 2025-08-12 Listed $260,000 TMLS
• 2025-04-11 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-03-09 Pending — TMLS
• 2024-12-09 Relisted — TMLS
• 2024-10-31 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2024-10-30 Price Changed $120,000 TMLS
• 2024-10-10 Price Changed $299,999 TMLS
• 2024-09-06 Listed $310,000 TMLS
• 2024-09-03 Coming Soon — TMLS
• 2023-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $282,500 Public Records
• 2023-05-26 Sold (MLS) $282,400 TMLS
• 2023-04-28 Contingent — TMLS
• 2023-04-20 Listed $279,900 TMLS
• 2023-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $146,000 Public Records
• 1999-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $114,000 Public Records
• 1999-08-16 Sold (MLS) $114,000 AMLSNC
• 1999-08-16 Sold (MLS) $114,000 TMLS
• 1999-08-16 Price Changed $165,000 TMLS
• 1999-08-16 Sold (MLS) $114,000 TMLS
• 1999-06-14 Listed $120,000 AMLSNC
• 1999-06-14 Listed $120,000 TMLS
• 1996-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $24,500 Public Records
• 1995-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1994-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $24,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,844 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.