393 Jessica Dr · Victoria, TX 77904

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,761 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1960 5.00 ac lot ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the potential waiting at this 5-acre residential tract offers a rare opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers looking to create their dream property in a peaceful, partially wooded setting. The property features a 2,761 sq ft brick home ready for renovation or redevelopment. While the home is currently abandoned and in need of repairs, it presents a blank canvas full of possibilities — whether you're considering a full remodel, investment project, or starting fresh with new construction.

Key facts

• Brick home
• 5 acre lot
• Built 1960

Tags

• 5 ACRE RESIDENTIAL TRACT
• PARTIALLY WOODED SETTING
• BRICK HOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.7% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#309 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Vickers El (math 54% / reading 58%, grade C+, #574 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 505 students, 50% FRL); Harold Cade Middle (math 39% / reading 45%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 740 students, 47% FRL); Victoria West H S (math 18% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,766 students, 59% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 28% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Victoria ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 227 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,065 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.93%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $623,986
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Wellspring Blvd	0.44mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,573 (-7%)	6mo	$520,000	$202	54
546 Dayspring	0.62mi	3/2.5	2,547 (-8%)	7mo	$575,000	$226	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $5,834
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $39,596
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77904

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,672 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,054/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,141

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $492	-5% $456	+0% $419	+5% $383	+10% $346
Rent	-10% $287	-5% $353	+0% $419	+5% $485	+10% $551
Rate	-1.0pp $484	-0.5pp $452	base $419	+0.5pp $386	+1.0pp $352

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-20
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-16
   historical
4. 2026-02-14
   listed $129,000 Active
5. 2026-02-14
   listed $129,000 Active
6. 2005-06-08
   soldstatus
7. 2005-04-05
   listed $135,850

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,054 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,361 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$307/yr (+$26/mo · 14.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,062
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$2,054
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,605
• − Management: −$1,605
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $3,174
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$762
• After-tax cash flow: $4,270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

Livability — Victoria

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #6960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Victoria County · 69,915 people
• City population: 69,915
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,061
• Household income: $83,130
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1133.0

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 20% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.51%
• Current HPI: 142.2501
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2026-02-20 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $129,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $129,000 CTXMLS
• 2005-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-04-05 Listed $135,850 CTXMLS

Property tax history

-7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,054 · -31.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.