13725 Tucker Hedge Pass · Elgin, TX 78621

$309,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,162 sqft · Land · 149 Days on market

Built 2025 8,450 sqft lot $143/sqft · 7% below area Est $333k · 7% under $96/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step inside to a front-facing secondary bedroom with a walk-in closet, located near a shared full bath?an ideal setup for guests or multigenerational living. From there, the home opens into a spacious family room with vaulted ceilings, a bright dining area, and a chef-inspired kitchen featuring an eye-shaped center island, ample cabinets and counter space, a walk-in pantry, and a built-in side niche for extra storage or display.

Key facts

• Half bath
• Utility room
• New construction

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• GAME ROOM
• OPEN LAYOUT
• UTILITY ROOM
• STORAGE CLOSET
• HALF BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-447 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (30.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $215,616 (30.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.17%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,114
• List price: $309,990
• Delta: -6.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $140,681
• Equity at exit: $279,264

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.04×
• Total profit: $437,257
• Equity at exit: $602,242

Cash invested: $86,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,156 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$299 /mo · $3,591/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-447

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,722

Max offer price $231,091

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,498
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	14d	1	0.22mi
102 Blanco Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2450	$1,800	$0.73	43d	1	0.24mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	43d	1	0.40mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	4d	1	0.46mi
19017 Romano Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,198	$0.89	4d	1	0.56mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	17d	1	0.61mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	43d	1	0.63mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,452	$1.38	1d	1	0.64mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	23d	1	0.66mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	4d	1	0.66mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	17d	1	0.67mi
11524 Rush Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,300	$0.93	43d	1	0.72mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,885	$1.05	4d	1	0.75mi
16429 Farmhouse Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,000	$0.79	2d	1	0.75mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,825	$1.20	4d	1	0.76mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	23d	1	0.76mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	43d	1	0.76mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	20d	1	0.80mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	23d	1	0.81mi
19024 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,995	$0.78	43d	1	0.83mi
18741 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,980	$0.78	23d	1	0.83mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	43d	1	0.84mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	2d	1	0.87mi
17041 Dusty Boots Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,370	$0.93	3d	1	0.87mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,775	$1.15	19d	1	0.91mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	23d	1	0.91mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	43d	1	0.92mi
17001 Dusty Boots Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,945	$0.77	20d	1	0.93mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,850	$1.21	2d	1	1.01mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	12d	1	1.03mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	1.04mi
18501 Spotted Eagle Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	3.5	2891	$2,800	$0.97	3d	1	1.06mi
14521 Gurneys Eagle Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,895	$1.01	1d	1	1.08mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	23d	1	1.15mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	4d	1	1.15mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	4d	1	1.21mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	1d	1	1.29mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	4d	1	1.30mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	17d	1	1.33mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	23d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,990 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,990 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,990 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,990 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,990 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,990 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,990 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $309,990 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $309,990 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,990 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,990 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,990 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,990 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    status Active 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Step inside to a front-facing secondary bedroom with a walk-in closet, located near a shared full bath?an ideal setup for guests or multigenerational living. From there, the home opens into a spacious family room with vaulted ceilings, a bright dining area, and a chef-inspired kitchen featuring an eye-shaped center island, ample cabinets and counter space, a walk-in pantry, and a built-in side niche for extra storage or display.

15. 2026-05-15
    historical 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Step inside to a front-facing secondary bedroom with a walk-in closet, located near a shared full bath?an ideal setup for guests or multigenerational living. From there, the home opens into a spacious family room with vaulted ceilings, a bright dining area, and a chef-inspired kitchen featuring an eye-shaped center island, ample cabinets and counter space, a walk-in pantry, and a built-in side niche for extra storage or display.

16. 2026-03-16
    listed $319,995 Active 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Step inside to a front-facing secondary bedroom with a walk-in closet, located near a shared full bath?an ideal setup for guests or multigenerational living. From there, the home opens into a spacious family room with vaulted ceilings, a bright dining area, and a chef-inspired kitchen featuring an eye-shaped center island, ample cabinets and counter space, a walk-in pantry, and a built-in side niche for extra storage or display.

17. 2026-03-04
    price $319,995 1346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1346 chars)

    New Construction | 4 Beds | 2.5 Baths | Game Room | 2-Story | 2,162 Sq Ft | Ready March | The Simone is a two-story home designed for everyday ease, with smart spaces and an open layout that keeps everyone connected. The entrance foyer welcomes you in with a conveniently placed utility room, storage closet, and half bath at the front of the home—perfect for staying organized from day one. The main living area opens into a bright, open floorplan where the kitchen anchors the space and overlooks both the family room and adjacent breakfast area. The kitchen includes a center island, quartz countertops, and a walk-in pantry, while the large family room is filled with abundant windows and natural light for a warm, inviting feel. Located at the back of the first floor, the primary suite offers privacy and comfort with double doors leading to the ensuite bath featuring dual vanities, a walk-in shower, and a large walk-in closet with extra under-stairs storage—a bonus you’ll appreciate every day. Upstairs, you’re greeted by a spacious game room and three additional bedrooms, plus a full bath with a dual vanity to keep mornings running smoothly. Finished with carpet and LVP flooring throughout, the Simone is ready this March and ready to welcome you home. Visit our model and ask about current buyer incentives!

18. 2026-01-20
    listed $328,990 Active 1346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1346 chars)

    New Construction | 4 Beds | 2.5 Baths | Game Room | 2-Story | 2,162 Sq Ft | Ready March | The Simone is a two-story home designed for everyday ease, with smart spaces and an open layout that keeps everyone connected. The entrance foyer welcomes you in with a conveniently placed utility room, storage closet, and half bath at the front of the home—perfect for staying organized from day one. The main living area opens into a bright, open floorplan where the kitchen anchors the space and overlooks both the family room and adjacent breakfast area. The kitchen includes a center island, quartz countertops, and a walk-in pantry, while the large family room is filled with abundant windows and natural light for a warm, inviting feel. Located at the back of the first floor, the primary suite offers privacy and comfort with double doors leading to the ensuite bath featuring dual vanities, a walk-in shower, and a large walk-in closet with extra under-stairs storage—a bonus you’ll appreciate every day. Upstairs, you’re greeted by a spacious game room and three additional bedrooms, plus a full bath with a dual vanity to keep mornings running smoothly. Finished with carpet and LVP flooring throughout, the Simone is ready this March and ready to welcome you home. Visit our model and ask about current buyer incentives!

19. 2024-05-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,591 · $299/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,673 · $473/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,082/yr (+$174/mo · 58.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,874
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,364
• − Property taxes: −$3,591
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,070
• − Management: −$2,070
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$10,941
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,626
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-16 Listed $319,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $319,995 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $328,990 Unlock MLS
• 2024-05-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+278.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,591 · +251.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.