319 Melbourn Dr · Lake Alfred, FL 33844

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1989 4,870 sqft lot $387/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

OWN YOUR OWN LAND IN THIS SOUGHT-AFTER RESORT-STYLE 55+ GATED GOLF COMMUNITY IN SUNNY CENTRAL FLORIDA! THIS BEAUTIFULLY UPDATED 3-BEDROOM, 2-BATH HOME OFFERS 1,798 SQUARE FEET OF COMFORTABLE LIVING SPACE AND HAS BEEN THOUGHTFULLY UPGRADED FROM TOP TO BOTTOM. ENJOY PEACE OF MIND WITH A NEW ROOF INSTALLED IN JUNE 2023 FEATURING 30-YEAR ARCHITECTURAL SHINGLES, PLUS A NEW A/C SYSTEM AND DUCTWORK WITH SURGE PROTECTION. ADDITIONAL RECENT IMPROVEMENTS INCLUDE A REPLACED ELECTRICAL PANEL, STYLISH LUXURY VINYL FLOORING THROUGHOUT, AND NEW CARPORT. THE DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS PROVIDE ENERGY EFFICIENCY! THE SPACIOUS KITCHEN IS A TRUE CENTERPIECE, FEATURING GRANITE COUNTERTOPS, BEAUTIFUL CABINETRY, PULL O

Key facts

• New a c system
• Double pane windows
• Granite countertops

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW A C SYSTEM
• REPLACED ELECTRICAL PANEL
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Irrigation equipment on property
• Financial info: Total annual fees $4,644; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA with required approval; Monthly HOA fee of $387 (includes cable TV, internet, pool, sewer, water, trash, management, common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves and recreational facilities); Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, pickleball courts, shuffleboard, golf course and street lights; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs) with limits — max pet weight 20 lbs

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Security: Gated community with security gate
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable connected; Sewer connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces east; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Metal and shingle roof; Built on crawlspace
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Storage; Workshop on property; Private road with road maintenance agreement; Asphalt road surface; Lake access to Lake Henry with assigned boat slip, private boat ramp and fishing pier

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen with stone counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Stone counters; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Double-pane insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-339/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (2.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $209k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Horizons Elementary School (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,587 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 1,468 students, 42% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1344 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.56%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-40,385
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-52,274
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1344
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,162 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,590/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$387
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,198

Max offer price $210,005

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $93	-5% $33	+0% $-28	+5% $-89	+10% $-150
Rent	-10% $-199	-5% $-114	+0% $-28	+5% $57	+10% $143
Rate	-1.0pp $80	-0.5pp $26	base $-28	+0.5pp $-84	+1.0pp $-141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
161 Greenview Dr #161 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$2,100	$2.21	25d	1	0.70mi
2621 Trinidad Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,200	$1.20	25d	1	0.86mi
3329 Aruba Way Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1669	$2,200	$1.32	25d	1	0.91mi
2518 Trinidad Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,150	$1.17	25d	1	1.08mi
6004 Bimini Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,750	$1.18	25d	1	1.12mi
3000 US Highway 17 92 W Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,800	$1.44	5d	1	1.18mi
1901 US Highway 17 92 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,900	$1.74	16d	1	1.28mi
4955 Old Lucerne Park Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$2,050	$1.27	25d	1	1.31mi
213 Lake Lucerne Way Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1717	$1,900	$1.11	13d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $387 · $4,644/yr
• Likely covers: electricsecurity

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $215,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    status Active
17. 2026-05-04
    status Pending
18. 2026-04-25
    listed $224,900 Active
19. 2023-10-25
    soldstatus $201,000
20. 1991-07-01
    soldstatus $66,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,590 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$195/yr (+$16/mo · 12.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,590
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,076
• − Management: −$2,076
• − HOA: −$4,644
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$3,810
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$914
• After-tax cash flow: $575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+240.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Listed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $201,000 Public Records
• 1991-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,590 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.