539 River St · Fair Haven, VT 05743

$79,950

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 70 Days on market

Built 1900 7,840 sqft lot $53/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Offering older home with 3 bedrooms, one bath with claw foot tub for those relaxing baths. Kitchen, Livingroom, family room located on first floor, 3 bedrooms, and bath on the second floor. Nice yard area with plenty of room to park or play.

Key facts

• Nice yard area
• First floor
• Claw foot tub

Tags

• CLAW FOOT TUB
• FIRST FLOOR
• NICE YARD AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#31 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Rutland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Rutland County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $80k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $75,153 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.64%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,086
• List price: $79,950
• Delta: -55.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Maple St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-3%)	6mo	$201,000	$138	63
19 Adams St	0.64mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,432 (-4%)	21mo	$90,000	$63	40
159 N Main St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,284 (-14%)	8mo	$180,000	$140	34
179 N Main St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,300 (-13%)	15mo	$163,000	$125	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $76,408
• Equity at exit: $72,025

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.90×
• Total profit: $199,247
• Equity at exit: $155,325

Cash invested: $22,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05743

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,371 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,376/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $718

Max offer price $79,950

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $561	-5% $538	+0% $516	+5% $493	+10% $470
Rent	-10% $407	-5% $461	+0% $516	+5% $570	+10% $624
Rate	-1.0pp $556	-0.5pp $536	base $516	+0.5pp $495	+1.0pp $474

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,988
• Closing costs: $2,398
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,950 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,950 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,950 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,950 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,950 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,950 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,950 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,950 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,950 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,950 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,950 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $79,950 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,950 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,950 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,950 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,950 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-05-16
    price $89,950 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Offering older home with 3 bedrooms, one bath with claw foot tub for those relaxing baths. Kitchen, Livingroom, family room located on first floor, 3 bedrooms, and bath on the second floor. Nice yard area with plenty of room to park or play.

18. 2026-04-09
    listed $99,950 Active 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Offering older home with 3 bedrooms, one bath with claw foot tub for those relaxing baths. Kitchen, Livingroom, family room located on first floor, 3 bedrooms, and bath on the second floor. Nice yard area with plenty of room to park or play.

19. 1996-06-28
    soldstatus $49,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,376 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,448 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$71/yr (+$6/mo · 5.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,478
• − Property taxes: −$1,376
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,316
• − Management: −$1,316
• − Depreciation: −$2,326
• Taxable income: $5,236
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,257
• After-tax cash flow: $4,930/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Fair Haven

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #7050

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,144

Population outlook (Rutland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,307 people
• By 2030: 52,364 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 45,751 · -17.3%
• By 2050: 39,627 · -28.4%
• By 2075: 29,080 · -47.4%
• By 2100: 20,673 · -62.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rutland

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.3) · D 51.3% · R 46.0% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.3pp toward R · 2008: 24.6pp · 2024: 5.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.3 2020: D+10.5 2016: D+4.2 2012: D+22.0 2008: D+24.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.19%
• Current HPI: 289.3746
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+82.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $89,950 PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $99,950 PrimeMLS
• 1996-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $49,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,376 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.