2121 E Ash St · Springfield, IL 62703

$150,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,506 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 1950 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath ranch ideally located just west of Southeast High School! This home offers a spacious layout featuring a large living room perfect for everyday living and entertaining, along with a separate laundry room for added convenience. Situated on a generously sized lot with mature trees and landscaping, you’ll enjoy both privacy and outdoor space. The property also includes a detached 2-car garage, a long driveway, and a convenient half-circle drive for easy access and extra parking. A great opportunity in a desirable location!

Key facts

• Generously sized lot
• Large living room
• Long driveway

Tags

• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• LONG DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (0.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,360 (0.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.16%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $61,746
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2121 E Ash St	0.00mi	4/1.5	1,506 (0%)	1mo	$165,000	$110	99
2047 Randall Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-0%)	18mo	$66,000	$44	72
2171 S 14th St	0.60mi	4/1.5	1,534 (+2%)	15mo	$55,000	$36	56
2012 Randall Ct	0.08mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,693 (+12%)	16mo	$88,000	$52	56
1956 S 19th St	0.15mi	4/1.0	1,302 (-14%)	21mo	$46,000	$35	51
2215 E Cedar St	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,636 (+9%)	20mo	$63,000	$39	49
1903 S 16th St	0.40mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,337 (-11%)	8mo	$75,000	$56	49
1600 S Pope Ave	0.45mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,688 (+12%)	10mo	$62,000	$37	46
1124 Laurel St	0.75mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,331 (-12%)	2mo	$65,000	$49	37
1927 S 13th St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,305 (-13%)	4mo	$47,500	$36	37
1117 E Ash St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,348 (-10%)	6mo	$37,000	$27	37
1905 S 13th St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,300 (-14%)	9mo	$53,500	$41	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,706
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $60,562
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62703

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Rents YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,494 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $544/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,132

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $370	-5% $328	+0% $285	+5% $243	+10% $201
Rent	-10% $168	-5% $227	+0% $285	+5% $344	+10% $403
Rate	-1.0pp $361	-0.5pp $324	base $285	+0.5pp $247	+1.0pp $207

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1929 E Spruce St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	44d	1	0.31mi
1213 E Ash St Springfield, IL	3.0	2.0	1861	$2,030	$1.09	21d	1	0.65mi
2328 S 10th St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	44d	1	0.96mi
1104 S 11th St Unit A Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,000	$0.83	44d	1	1.01mi
1726 S 6th St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.5	1408	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	1.15mi
1600 S 6th St Unit 1 Springfield, IL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	21d	1	1.16mi
1214 S 7th St Unit C Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,350	$1.12	44d	1	1.20mi
1933 S 2nd St Springfield, IL	4.0	2.0	1433	$1,400	$0.98	44d	1	1.40mi
2213 E Adams St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $544 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,974 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,431/yr (+$119/mo · 263.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$544
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,434
• − Management: −$1,434
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $996
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$239
• After-tax cash flow: $3,187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #2138

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, IL
• County: Sangamon County · 115,414 people
• City population: 59,955
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• Population (ZIP): 28,922
• Household income: $45,009
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1626.0

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 35% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sangamon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.69%
• Current HPI: 147.0877
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.19%
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $150,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $544 · -5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.