325 Buena Vista Dr · Lillian, AL 36549

$120,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 420 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1986 3,223 sqft lot Est $87k · 37% over $74/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cutest little bungalow in Spanish Cove! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home at 325 Buena Vista offers a large addition that expands the living space and provides plenty of room to spread out. Large back deck. Enjoy the convenience of a backyard shed, AC replaced in 2018, and a roof that was re-screwed and sealed in 2025. The lot next door is also available for purchase, giving you extra possibilities for space, parking, or investment. Located in the charming bayfront community of Lillian, Alabama, you’ll love the peaceful small-town feel while still being close to everything — Pensacola, NAS Pensacola, Perdido Key, Johnson’s Beach, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, and Foley with shoppin

Key facts

• Ac replaced
• Large addition
• Roof re-screwed

Tags

• LARGE ADDITION
• BACK DECK
• BACKYARD SHED
• AC REPLACED
• ROOF RE-SCREWED
• BAYFRONT COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $74; Association covers management, common area insurance, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities, security, common area taxes, trash, clubhouse and pool; Community amenities include clubhouse, indoor and outdoor pools, fitness center, tennis courts, playground, fishing, meeting rooms, on-site management, conference center, covered entry, common lobby, and internet; wheelchair accessible

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Security: Community security included in association services
• Utilities: Perdido Bay Water; Baldwin County sewer service; Riviera Utilities; Cable connected
• Home design: Mobile home; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Resale condition
• Exterior features: Fenced lot; Deeded waterfront access; Community/association pool; Storage building/structure; Less than 1 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Breakfast area on main level
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main/first floor (primary bed/bath combo)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Internet available; No fireplace; Open front and rear porches; Porch (open); Storage included
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in a common area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.1% in Lillian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#97 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elberta Elementary School (math 47% / reading 65%, grade C+, #83 of 627 statewide, top 13%, 884 students, 58% FRL); Elberta Middle School (math 21% / reading 67%, grade D, #42 of 257 statewide, top 17%, 267 students, 63% FRL); Elberta High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #47 of 305 statewide, top 17%, 784 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 38% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $120k implies a 312% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.76%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $87,360
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
615 Escambia Loop	0.15mi	1/1.0	432 (+3%)	4mo	$80,000	$185	85
662 Escambia Loop	0.08mi	1/1.0	416 (-1%)	17mo	$155,000	$373	81
528 Escambia Cir	0.25mi	1/1.0	480 (+14%)	9mo	$100,000	$208	57
386 COVE BAYOU Cir	0.31mi	1/1.0	480 (+14%)	7mo	$60,000	$125	56
112 Horn Dr	0.26mi	1/1.0	480 (+14%)	13mo	$95,000	$198	53
491 Elberta Loop	0.21mi	1/1.0	480 (+14%)	20mo	$90,400	$188	49
518 Elberta Loop	0.21mi	2/2.0 (+1)	480 (+14%)	12mo	$145,000	$302	47
479 Buena Vista Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0 (+1)	480 (+14%)	13mo	$131,000	$273	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-5,607
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $12,917
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36549

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,270 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $396/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$74
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $995

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $285	-5% $251	+0% $217	+5% $183	+10% $149
Rent	-10% $117	-5% $167	+0% $217	+5% $268	+10% $318
Rate	-1.0pp $278	-0.5pp $248	base $217	+0.5pp $186	+1.0pp $155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $74 · $888/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 9 DOM
18. 2026-05-21
    listed $120,000 Active
19. 1997-09-19
    soldstatus $29,150

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $396 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $492 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: +$96/yr (+$8/mo · 24.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$396
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,220
• − Management: −$1,220
• − HOA: −$888
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $710
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$170
• After-tax cash flow: $2,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lillian

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #11371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,152
• Population (ZIP): 6,152

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.45%
• Current HPI: 285.5902
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+311.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $120,000 BCAR
• 1997-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $29,150 Public Records

Property tax history

+29.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $396 · +32.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.