3141 Carriage Cir · Naples, FL 34105

$649,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,594 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1991 2,613 sqft lot $250/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This fully renovated single-family home features a new roof, new flooring, and updated bathrooms. Located in one of Naples’ most sought-after neighborhoods, directly across from Grey Oaks, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence is ideal for families. The home is conveniently situated across from the community pool and is surrounded by a great family-friendly neighborhood with an excellent school district

Key facts

• New flooring
• Updated bathrooms
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• ACROSS FROM COMMUNITY POOL
• EXCELLENT SCHOOL DISTRICT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No commercial use allowed (restrictions); Irrigation: central
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly HOA fee of $750 (total annual recurring fees $3,000); HOA maintenance covers cable, irrigation water, and manager; Professional management; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, and BBQ/picnic area; Non-gated community (Carriage Circle of Naples)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Electric service (central)
• Home design: Residential single-family; 1-story / ranch; Rear exposure faces west; Unfurnished
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Metal roof; Built in 1991; Foundation details not specified
• Exterior features: Patio; Privacy wall; Automatic sprinkler system; Landscaped area; Pool/club view

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator / icemaker; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Guest/secondary unit with 2+ bedrooms, living room and patio
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master baths: two master-style baths with separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Cable available
• Interior features: Bar; Cable prewire; Cathedral ceiling; Laundry tub; Smoke detectors; Split bedroom floor plan; Pantry; Breakfast bar / dining-living
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry tub; Auto garage door opener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $843 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $650k).
• Recommended offer: $572k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 329 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,580/mo this rent would consume 86% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 780% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($572k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $650k implies a 365% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $571,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.99%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-65,573
• Equity at exit: $96,917

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-42,692
• Equity at exit: $56,200

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34105

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,580 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax from tax record: −$359 /mo · $4,312/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,382
• Net cashflow: $843

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,513

Max offer price $649,999

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3511 Santiago Way Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	1800	$6,500	$3.61	23d	1	0.35mi
2581 Poinciana St Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1255	$9,000	$7.17	23d	1	0.44mi
3520 Bolero Way Unit 1325569P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$5,021	$3.59	14d	1	0.59mi
1111 Wildwood Ln #1111 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2060	$10,000	$4.85	23d	1	0.96mi
522 Wildwood Ln #522 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1656	$8,000	$4.83	23d	1	0.98mi
500 Misty Pines Cir #206 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1260	$6,000	$4.76	14d	1	1.01mi
500 Misty Pines Cir Unit 2-204 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1260	$5,750	$4.56	13d	1	1.01mi
3308 Europa Dr #30 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1205	$5,500	$4.56	23d	1	1.01mi
1350 Misty Pines Cir Unit E-204 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$7,500	$6.25	14d	1	1.07mi
2680 Longboat Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1528	$11,000	$7.20	23d	1	1.23mi
1044 Woodshire Ln Unit B212 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$8,000	$6.40	23d	1	1.33mi
202 Bears Paw Trl #97 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1665	$10,000	$6.01	23d	1	1.34mi
2328 Clipper Way Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1469	$10,000	$6.81	23d	1	1.36mi
2548 River Reach Dr Unit 1073502P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1550	$5,795	$3.74	14d	1	1.42mi
1860 Bald Eagle Dr Unit 403B Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1325	$3,000	$2.26	14d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $649,999 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $649,999 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $649,999 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $649,999 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $649,999 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $649,999 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $649,999 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $649,999 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $649,999 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $649,999 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $649,999 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $649,999 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $649,999 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $649,999 Active 127 DOM
15. 2026-03-01
    price $649,999
16. 2026-01-23
    listed $675,000 Active
17. 2016-01-05
    historical
18. 2015-08-02
    status Pending
19. 2015-04-22
    status Active
20. 2015-03-13
    status Pending
21. 2015-03-08
    price $280,000
22. 2015-03-08
    price $259,900
23. 2015-02-09
    price $279,900
24. 2015-01-20
    listed $285,900 Active
25. 2014-07-15
    historical
26. 2013-12-10
    listed $289,900
27. 2010-10-12
    historical
28. 2010-08-30
    listed $225,000
29. 2010-08-30
    listed $225,000
30. 1993-06-07
    soldstatus $139,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,312 · $359/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,395 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,083/yr (+$90/mo · 25.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$4,312
• − Insurance: −$4,047
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,317
• − Management: −$6,317
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable loss: −$354
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$85
• After-tax cash flow: $10,198/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Naples

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #1903

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 344,941
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,441
• Household income: $92,214
• Rent vs Own: 29.7% rent · 70.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.65%
• Current HPI: 283.9084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+364.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $649,999 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $675,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2016-01-05 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2015-08-02 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2015-04-22 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2015-03-13 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2015-03-08 Price Changed $259,900 FORTMLS
• 2015-03-08 Price Changed $280,000 FORTMLS
• 2015-02-09 Price Changed $279,900 FORTMLS
• 2015-01-20 Listed $285,900 FORTMLS
• 2014-07-15 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2013-12-10 Listed $289,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2010-10-12 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2010-08-30 Listed $225,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2010-08-30 Listed $225,000 MIML
• 1993-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $139,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,312 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.