105 9th St · Warner, OK 74469

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2003 Est $129k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3 bed 2 bath located in Warner. Home has brand new hot water tank and new flooring in the kitchen and bathroom.

Key facts

• Hot water tank
• New flooring
• Built 2003

Tags

• HOT WATER TANK
• NEW FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#365 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime D.
• Warner (rural): math 40% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #24 of 270 in OK (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Muskogee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Muskogee County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $100k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,401 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.19%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,024
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1103 Kyle Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,452 (+8%)	4mo	$140,000	$96	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $23,311
• Equity at exit: $39,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $66,538
• Equity at exit: $56,488

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74469

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,088 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $400/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $758

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $99,900 Active
16. 2017-06-23
    soldstatus $46,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $400 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $899 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$499/yr (+$42/mo · 124.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,058
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$400
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,045
• − Management: −$1,045
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $1,567
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$376
• After-tax cash flow: $2,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warner
• NCES district ID: 4031650
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $41,068
• Composite: 32.83/100
• National rank: #5619
• State rank: #24 of 270 in OK

Livability — Warner

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #365
• US rank: #19429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warner, OK
• Population (ZIP): 2,138

Population outlook (Muskogee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,842 people
• By 2030: 64,969 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 60,920 · -8.9%
• By 2050: 56,978 · -14.8%
• By 2075: 47,160 · -29.4%
• By 2100: 35,336 · -47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Native American 24% Two or more races 17% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Muskogee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.4% · R 68.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.6pp toward R · 2008: -15.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+15.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Current HPI: 231.7085
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+117.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $99,900 FSBO.com
• 2017-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $400 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.