Satisfaction Plan · Conroe, TX 77301

$77,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · Manufactured · 604 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home offers a well-crafted living area of 1,264 square feet. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home is ideal for families seeking a balance of comfort and functionality Delivered/Set & A/C ONLY - LAND NOT INCLUDED

Key facts

• Listed 604 days

Tags

• WELL-CRAFTED LIVING AREA

🏗️ New construction. The $77,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $202,749.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($391/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 486 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 604 days — a 12% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price.

Recommended offer $68,552 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 604 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.69%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,749
• List price: $77,900
• Delta: -61.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-33,576
• Equity at exit: $30,230

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-37,680
• Equity at exit: $17,530

Cash invested: $56,770 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77301

• Home prices YoY: -8.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 486
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,815 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,063
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$253 /mo · $3,041/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,774

Max offer price $202,749

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,687
• Closing costs: $6,082
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
800 N FM 3083 Rd W Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	913	$1,600	$1.75	1d	16	0.94mi
11823 Stonehedge Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1355	$1,650	$1.22	24d	1	0.96mi
2100 Hill Top Ct Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1228	$1,599	$1.30	1d	1	1.12mi
719 Long Cedar Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,595	$1.09	43d	1	1.25mi
727 Long Cedar Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,650	$1.23	12d	1	1.26mi
1307 Vincente Ct Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1860	$2,300	$1.24	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $77,900 Active 604 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $77,900 Active 603 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $77,900 Active 602 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $77,900 Active 601 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $77,900 Active 599 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $77,900 Active 595 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $77,900 Active 594 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $77,900 Active 593 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $77,900 Active 590 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $77,900 Active 589 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $77,900 Active 587 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $77,900 Active 586 DOM
13. 2026-05-05
    price $77,900 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    This home offers a well-crafted living area of 1,264 square feet. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home is ideal for families seeking a balance of comfort and functionality Delivered/Set & A/C ONLY - LAND NOT INCLUDED

14. 2024-10-22
    listed $67,900 Active 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    This home offers a well-crafted living area of 1,264 square feet. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home is ideal for families seeking a balance of comfort and functionality Delivered/Set & A/C ONLY - LAND NOT INCLUDED

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,357
• − Property taxes: −$3,041
• − Insurance: −$1,014
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,742
• − Management: −$1,742
• − Depreciation: −$5,898
• Taxable loss: −$3,017
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$724
• After-tax cash flow: $1,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of comfort and functionality, making it an attractive option for families. Some minor updates, such as painting the exterior and replacing window seals, can further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value
• Resale Replace the window seals — Improves energy efficiency and can increase property value
• Both Upgrade the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Resale Replace the window seals — Improves energy efficiency and can increase property value ↑
• Both Upgrade the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,769
• Household income: $66,475
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1256.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 31% Two or more races 19% Black 13% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.51%
• Current HPI: 278.6662
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+14.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $77,900 Zillow
• 2024-10-22 Listed $67,900 Zillow