3801 Legend Creek Dr · Pace, FL 32571

$144,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 235 Days on market

Built 1998 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1998 Horton home 24'x52' - Great condition, new appliances, Built-in corner dining room closet, fancy closets over breakfast bar, Large Great Room and Kitchen. All bedrooms have large walk-in closets, 10'x 10' front deck! Quiet location in Legend Creek! Convenient to Pensacola, Milton & Whiting Field. Call agent to see inside!

Key facts

• Brand-new hvac unit
• Move-in ready
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• NEWLY INSTALLED BATH INSERT
• BRAND-NEW HVAC UNIT
• MOVE-IN READY
• EXCELLENT SCHOOL DISTRICT
• FANTASTIC PACE LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.25 acres with central access; Paved, county-maintained road access; Circuit breakers and copper wiring for electric; Cable service available
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with open parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Mobile/Manufactured home; One story; Off-grade foundation; Frame construction
• Construction: Frame construction; Off-grade foundation; One-level layout
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Deck; Roof described in remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen (updated within the past year with new paint and flooring)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approximately 12 x 14); Bedroom 1 on the first floor (approximately 12 x 12); Bedroom 2 on the first floor (approximately 12 x 11)
• Flooring: New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms (within past year)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathrooms updated within the past year with new paint and flooring
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Baseboards
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $584 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 4.5% in Pace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 665 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $145k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.28%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $13,181
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $57,125
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32571

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 665
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,892 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,076/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $584

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,152

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $666	-5% $625	+0% $584	+5% $543	+10% $502
Rent	-10% $435	-5% $510	+0% $584	+5% $659	+10% $734
Rate	-1.0pp $657	-0.5pp $621	base $584	+0.5pp $547	+1.0pp $509

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4716 Chumuckla Hwy Unit 3903 Pace, FL	3.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	24d	1	0.64mi
4606 Southern Pl Milton, FL	3.0	1.5	1431	$1,500	$1.05	14d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 235 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 234 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $144,900 Active 233 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Contingent 232 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $144,900 Contingent 230 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $144,900 Contingent 227 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Contingent 226 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Contingent 225 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $144,900 Contingent 224 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $144,900 Contingent 221 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,900 Contingent 220 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Contingent 219 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Contingent 218 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Contingent 217 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Contingent 216 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    price $144,900
17. 2026-04-12
    status Active
18. 2026-03-20
    historical
19. 2026-03-13
    status Active
20. 2026-03-01
    status Pending
21. 2026-01-26
    price $149,900
22. 2025-12-25
    price $154,900
23. 2025-10-30
    price $159,900
24. 2025-09-20
    listed $164,900 Active
25. 2004-11-12
    soldstatus $63,000
26. 2004-11-08
    soldstatus $63,000 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    1998 Horton home 24'x52' - Great condition, new appliances, Built-in corner dining room closet, fancy closets over breakfast bar, Large Great Room and Kitchen. All bedrooms have large walk-in closets, 10'x 10' front deck! Quiet location in Legend Creek! Convenient to Pensacola, Milton & Whiting Field. Call agent to see inside!

27. 2004-11-08
    soldstatus $63,000

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    1998 Horton home 24'x52' - Great condition, new appliances, Built-in corner dining room closet, fancy closets over breakfast bar, Large Great Room and Kitchen. All bedrooms have large walk-in closets, 10'x 10' front deck! Quiet location in Legend Creek! Convenient to Pensacola, Milton & Whiting Field. Call agent to see inside!

28. 2004-08-10
    listed $65,000 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    1998 Horton home 24'x52' - Great condition, new appliances, Built-in corner dining room closet, fancy closets over breakfast bar, Large Great Room and Kitchen. All bedrooms have large walk-in closets, 10'x 10' front deck! Quiet location in Legend Creek! Convenient to Pensacola, Milton & Whiting Field. Call agent to see inside!

29. 2004-06-15
    soldstatus $13,250 46-char remark

    Show marketing remark (46 chars)

    high and dry mobile home lot with improvements

30. 2004-04-19
    listed $15,500 46-char remark

    Show marketing remark (46 chars)

    high and dry mobile home lot with improvements

31. 1998-01-20
    soldstatus $33,500
32. 1992-06-01
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,076 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,203 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$127/yr (+$11/mo · 11.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$1,076
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,816
• − Management: −$1,816
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable income: $4,934
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,184
• After-tax cash flow: $5,829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pace

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #8593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pace, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 42,171
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,171
• Household income: $87,617
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.39%
• Current HPI: 290.2953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1349.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $144,900 PARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $149,900 PARMLS
• 2025-12-25 Price Changed $154,900 PARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $159,900 PARMLS
• 2025-09-20 Listed $164,900 PARMLS
• 2004-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 2004-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 2004-11-08 Sold (MLS) $63,000 PARMLS
• 2004-08-10 Listed $65,000 PARMLS
• 2004-06-15 Sold (MLS) $13,250 PARMLS
• 2004-04-19 Listed $15,500 PARMLS
• 1998-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $33,500 Public Records
• 1992-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,076 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.