174 Esther Ct · Tri-City, OR 97457

$116,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1982 0.42 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

UNFINISHED REMODEL 1750 SQ. FT. HOME ON .42 OF AN ACRE. CALL FIRST BECAUSE OF DOG.

Key facts

• 0.42 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1982

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Flag lot parcel (Parcel R31966)
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Driveway parking; 2 parking spaces total (including garage/carport)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Fixer condition; Main-level living area; Built in 1982; No view indicated
• Construction: Composition roof; Built in 1982; T-111 siding
• Exterior features: T-111 siding; Flag lot; Private lot; Gravel road access; Creek on the property (waterfront)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Main level); Second bedroom; Third bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Wall heater; No central heating listed; No cooling listed
• Interior features: Family room; Great Room; Living room; Dining room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $116k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $602 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $116k).
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 3.3% in Tri-City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• South Umpqua SD 19 (town): math 21% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #51 of 58 in OR (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Tri City Elementary School (math 15% / reading 34%, grade F, #309 of 412 statewide, top 77%, 285 students, 70% FRL); Coffenberry Middle School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #96 of 128 statewide, top 78%, 284 students, 72% FRL); South Umpqua High School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #94 of 143 statewide, top 70%, 443 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $802 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $116k implies a 183% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.26%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $399,600
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
434 S Old Pacific Hwy	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-5%)	6mo	$420,000	$250	72
540 Taylor St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,882 (+6%)	7mo	$370,000	$197	69
337 Jodee St	0.27mi	3/3.0	1,856 (+4%)	14mo	$449,000	$242	64
242 Celestial Way	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,680 (-5%)	23mo	$170,500	$101	60
110 W Ridge Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,936 (+9%)	23mo	$485,000	$251	46
442 Leslie Ln	0.39mi	3/3.0	2,000 (+13%)	17mo	$329,500	$165	43
335 Gentry Loop	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,581 (-11%)	12mo	$355,000	$225	42
448 Gentry Loop	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,581 (-11%)	19mo	$305,000	$193	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $19,564
• Equity at exit: $17,296

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $66,410
• Equity at exit: $10,030

Cash invested: $32,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97457

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,708 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,085/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $602

Break-even live

Break-even rent $946

Max offer price $116,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,000
• Closing costs: $3,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $116,000 Active
3. 2015-03-12
   soldstatus $41,000
4. 2002-06-07
   soldstatus $64,000 82-char remark

   Show marketing remark (82 chars)

   UNFINISHED REMODEL 1750 SQ. FT. HOME ON .42 OF AN ACRE. CALL FIRST BECAUSE OF DOG.

5. 2002-06-07
   soldstatus $64,000

   Show marketing remark (82 chars)

   UNFINISHED REMODEL 1750 SQ. FT. HOME ON .42 OF AN ACRE. CALL FIRST BECAUSE OF DOG.

6. 2002-01-14
   listed $67,000 82-char remark

   Show marketing remark (82 chars)

   UNFINISHED REMODEL 1750 SQ. FT. HOME ON .42 OF AN ACRE. CALL FIRST BECAUSE OF DOG.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,085 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,125 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$40/yr (+$3/mo · 3.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,498
• − Property taxes: −$1,085
• − Insurance: −$580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,640
• − Management: −$1,640
• − Depreciation: −$3,375
• Taxable income: $5,681
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,364
• After-tax cash flow: $5,866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Umpqua SD 19
• NCES district ID: 4111610
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,796
• Composite: 23.01/100
• National rank: #7976
• State rank: #51 of 58 in OR

Livability — Tri-City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tri-City, OR
• Population (ZIP): 10,158

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.88%
• Current HPI: 348.9631
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+73.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $116,000 RMLS
• 2015-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 2002-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 2002-06-07 Sold (MLS) $64,000 RMLS
• 2002-01-14 Listed $67,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,085 · +83.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.