683 Farm Road 2820 · Paris, TX 75486

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,509 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1987 1.66 ac lot $99/sqft · 22% below area Est $192k · 22% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is a fantastic opportunity if you are looking for a fun project. It features a spacious yard of over an acre and a half It is the perfect reason to buy a riding lawn mower and offers plenty of room for trucks, trailers, boats, and equipment. Renovation work has already begun, with the majority of the interior textured and painted. While the wall between the bedrooms has been removed, it could easily be rebuilt to suit your needs. The home also features a living room with a character filled brick fireplace and a spacious two-car garage. If you are ready to bring your skills to finish this home, please let me know when you would like to schedule a tour.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Renovation work
• Over an acre

Tags

• SPACIOUS YARD
• OVER AN ACRE
• RENOVATION WORK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.6% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#984 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• North Lamar ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #275 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 119 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (71 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Lamar County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,612 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.45%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,563
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -21.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $38,397
• Equity at exit: $83,214

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $112,182
• Equity at exit: $142,203

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75486

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,396 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,023/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,287

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $171	-5% $128	+0% $86	+5% $43	+10% $1
Rent	-10% $-24	-5% $31	+0% $86	+5% $141	+10% $196
Rate	-1.0pp $161	-0.5pp $124	base $86	+0.5pp $47	+1.0pp $7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 673-char remark

   Show marketing remark (673 chars)

   This property is a fantastic opportunity if you are looking for a fun project. It features a spacious yard of over an acre and a half It is the perfect reason to buy a riding lawn mower and offers plenty of room for trucks, trailers, boats, and equipment. Renovation work has already begun, with the majority of the interior textured and painted. While the wall between the bedrooms has been removed, it could easily be rebuilt to suit your needs. The home also features a living room with a character filled brick fireplace and a spacious two-car garage. If you are ready to bring your skills to finish this home, please let me know when you would like to schedule a tour.

2. 2026-03-13
   price $149,900 673-char remark

   Show marketing remark (673 chars)

   This property is a fantastic opportunity if you are looking for a fun project. It features a spacious yard of over an acre and a half It is the perfect reason to buy a riding lawn mower and offers plenty of room for trucks, trailers, boats, and equipment. Renovation work has already begun, with the majority of the interior textured and painted. While the wall between the bedrooms has been removed, it could easily be rebuilt to suit your needs. The home also features a living room with a character filled brick fireplace and a spacious two-car garage. If you are ready to bring your skills to finish this home, please let me know when you would like to schedule a tour.

3. 2026-02-19
   listed $165,000 Active 673-char remark

   Show marketing remark (673 chars)

   This property is a fantastic opportunity if you are looking for a fun project. It features a spacious yard of over an acre and a half It is the perfect reason to buy a riding lawn mower and offers plenty of room for trucks, trailers, boats, and equipment. Renovation work has already begun, with the majority of the interior textured and painted. While the wall between the bedrooms has been removed, it could easily be rebuilt to suit your needs. The home also features a living room with a character filled brick fireplace and a spacious two-car garage. If you are ready to bring your skills to finish this home, please let me know when you would like to schedule a tour.

4. 2019-02-14
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,023 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$720/yr (+$60/mo · 35.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,753
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,023
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,340
• − Management: −$1,340
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,457
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$350
• After-tax cash flow: $1,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Lamar ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833010
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,328
• Composite: 38.13/100
• National rank: #4270
• State rank: #275 of 826 in TX

Livability — Paris

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #984
• US rank: #17535

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 23,426
• Population (ZIP): 2,821

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,319 people
• By 2030: 47,160 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 44,621 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 42,024 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 36,577 · -24.3%
• By 2100: 30,580 · -36.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 4% Native American 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: German 3% Romanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · German/W. Germanic 12% Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.2% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.1pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+59.2 2012: R+50.3 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.81%
• Current HPI: 233.118
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2019-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,023 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.