352 Big Bear Trl · Big Bear Lake, CA 92333

$257,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 914 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 375 Days on market

Built 1920 1,000 sqft lot $282/sqft · 23% below area Est $334k · 23% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Huge reduction!! Enchanting Government Lease Cabin filled with great Memories and ready to be passed on to new owners. 180 degrees of lake and forest views. Located very close to Jackie and Shadow's infamous nest. This home boasts a collection of stonework which accents the walls of the patio, walkways and decking. Interior floors are all original wood. Interior walls are newer fresh drywall/ earthy colors and wainscoting with special ceiling fan soffits like no others that highlight the artistic workmanship of the property's contractor/caretaker of nearly 15 years. Entry level leads to 2 bedrooms and 3/4 bath, easy to drop off the luggage before going downstairs to living room and kitchen, 1/2 bath and storage room. A separate shed can hold all of the firewood for the winter season. Note the tankless water heater. Roof is approximately 5 years old, per the seller. If you are into rereational cabins, do not miss seeing this one. Furniture is negotiable except for the family heirlooms. Big Bear Trail is also known as PINE KONE LANE which is located across from the West Ramp Parking lot. Follow the road north to the fallen tree and veer to the right over the slight dip in the road. Continue to the security sign and make a right, You will see the for sale sign. Road is mostly paved.

Key facts

• Wainscoting
• Original wood floors
• Ceiling fan soffits

Tags

• LAKE AND FOREST VIEWS
• COLLECTION OF STONEWORK
• ORIGINAL WOOD FLOORS
• NEWER FRESH DRYWALL
• WAINSCOTING
• CEILING FAN SOFFITS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.4% in Big Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#420 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, health & safety D+.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Shore Elementary (math 28% / reading 41%, grade F, #719 of 1,571 statewide, top 48%, 523 students, 71% FRL); Big Bear Middle (math 20% / reading 37%, grade F, #231 of 498 statewide, top 47%, 503 students, 68% FRL); Big Bear High (math 37% / reading 67%, grade D+, #296 of 1,170 statewide, top 27%, 624 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 375 days — a 12% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,850 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 375 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.67%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,649
• List price: $257,500
• Delta: -22.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
372 Pine Hill Dr	0.00mi	1/1.0	884 (-3%)	11mo	$250,000	$283	86
1070 Comanche	0.67mi	2/1.0 (+1)	792 (-13%)	3mo	$285,000	$360	39
124 Lake Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,027 (+12%)	21mo	$1,295,000	$1,261	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-48,250
• Equity at exit: $38,394

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-50,781
• Equity at exit: $22,264

Cash invested: $72,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92333

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,798 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,350
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $762/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,926

Max offer price $239,770

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $45	-5% $-27	+0% $-100	+5% $-173	+10% $-246
Rent	-10% $-242	-5% $-171	+0% $-100	+5% $-29	+10% $42
Rate	-1.0pp $29	-0.5pp $-35	base $-100	+0.5pp $-167	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,375
• Closing costs: $7,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39219 Cedar Dell Rd Fawnskin, CA	1.0	1.0	538	$1,699	$3.16	0d	1	0.93mi
39219 Cedar Dell Rd Fawnskin, CA	2.0	1.0	538	$1,898	$3.53	45d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $257,500 Active 375 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $257,500 Active 372 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $257,500 Active 371 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $257,500 Active 370 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $257,500 Active 369 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $257,500 Active 367 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $257,500 Active 366 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $257,500 Active 363 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $257,500 Active 362 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $257,500 Active 361 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $257,500 Active 358 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $257,500 Active 357 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $257,500 Active 356 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $257,500 Active 355 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $257,500 Active 354 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $257,500 1302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1302 chars)

    Huge reduction!! Enchanting Government Lease Cabin filled with great Memories and ready to be passed on to new owners. 180 degrees of lake and forest views. Located very close to Jackie and Shadow's infamous nest. This home boasts a collection of stonework which accents the walls of the patio, walkways and decking. Interior floors are all original wood. Interior walls are newer fresh drywall/ earthy colors and wainscoting with special ceiling fan soffits like no others that highlight the artistic workmanship of the property's contractor/caretaker of nearly 15 years. Entry level leads to 2 bedrooms and 3/4 bath, easy to drop off the luggage before going downstairs to living room and kitchen, 1/2 bath and storage room. A separate shed can hold all of the firewood for the winter season. Note the tankless water heater. Roof is approximately 5 years old, per the seller. If you are into rereational cabins, do not miss seeing this one. Furniture is negotiable except for the family heirlooms. Big Bear Trail is also known as PINE KONE LANE which is located across from the West Ramp Parking lot. Follow the road north to the fallen tree and veer to the right over the slight dip in the road. Continue to the security sign and make a right, You will see the for sale sign. Road is mostly paved.

17. 2026-04-23
    price $257,500 1283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1283 chars)

    Enchanting Government Lease Cabin filled with great Memories and ready to be passed on to new owners. 180 degrees of lake and forest views. Located very close to Jackie and Shadow's infamous nest. This home boasts a collection of stonework which accents the walls of the patio, walkways and decking. Interior floors are all original wood. Interior walls are newer fresh drywall/ earthy colors and wainscoting with special ceiling fan soffits like no others that highlight the artistic workmanship of the property's contractor/caretaker of nearly 15 years. Entry level leads to 2 bedrooms and 3/4 bath, easy to drop off the luggage before going downstairs to living room and kitchen, 1/2 bath and storage room. A separate shed can hold all of the firewood for the winter season. Note the tankless water heater. Roof is approximately 5 years old, per the seller. If you are into rereational cabins, do not miss seeing this one. Furniture is negotiable except for the family heirlooms. Big Bear Trail is also known as PINE KONE LANE which is located across from the West Ramp Parking lot. Follow the road north to the fallen tree and veer to the right over the slight dip in the road. Continue to the security sign and make a right, You will see the for sale sign. Road is mostly paved.

18. 2025-06-11
    listed $289,900 Active 1283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1302 chars)

    Huge reduction!! Enchanting Government Lease Cabin filled with great Memories and ready to be passed on to new owners. 180 degrees of lake and forest views. Located very close to Jackie and Shadow's infamous nest. This home boasts a collection of stonework which accents the walls of the patio, walkways and decking. Interior floors are all original wood. Interior walls are newer fresh drywall/ earthy colors and wainscoting with special ceiling fan soffits like no others that highlight the artistic workmanship of the property's contractor/caretaker of nearly 15 years. Entry level leads to 2 bedrooms and 3/4 bath, easy to drop off the luggage before going downstairs to living room and kitchen, 1/2 bath and storage room. A separate shed can hold all of the firewood for the winter season. Note the tankless water heater. Roof is approximately 5 years old, per the seller. If you are into rereational cabins, do not miss seeing this one. Furniture is negotiable except for the family heirlooms. Big Bear Trail is also known as PINE KONE LANE which is located across from the West Ramp Parking lot. Follow the road north to the fallen tree and veer to the right over the slight dip in the road. Continue to the security sign and make a right, You will see the for sale sign. Road is mostly paved.

19. 2025-06-11
    price $289,900 1302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1302 chars)

    Huge reduction!! Enchanting Government Lease Cabin filled with great Memories and ready to be passed on to new owners. 180 degrees of lake and forest views. Located very close to Jackie and Shadow's infamous nest. This home boasts a collection of stonework which accents the walls of the patio, walkways and decking. Interior floors are all original wood. Interior walls are newer fresh drywall/ earthy colors and wainscoting with special ceiling fan soffits like no others that highlight the artistic workmanship of the property's contractor/caretaker of nearly 15 years. Entry level leads to 2 bedrooms and 3/4 bath, easy to drop off the luggage before going downstairs to living room and kitchen, 1/2 bath and storage room. A separate shed can hold all of the firewood for the winter season. Note the tankless water heater. Roof is approximately 5 years old, per the seller. If you are into rereational cabins, do not miss seeing this one. Furniture is negotiable except for the family heirlooms. Big Bear Trail is also known as PINE KONE LANE which is located across from the West Ramp Parking lot. Follow the road north to the fallen tree and veer to the right over the slight dip in the road. Continue to the security sign and make a right, You will see the for sale sign. Road is mostly paved.

20. 2025-05-19
    listed $299,900 Active 1302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1302 chars)

    Huge reduction!! Enchanting Government Lease Cabin filled with great Memories and ready to be passed on to new owners. 180 degrees of lake and forest views. Located very close to Jackie and Shadow's infamous nest. This home boasts a collection of stonework which accents the walls of the patio, walkways and decking. Interior floors are all original wood. Interior walls are newer fresh drywall/ earthy colors and wainscoting with special ceiling fan soffits like no others that highlight the artistic workmanship of the property's contractor/caretaker of nearly 15 years. Entry level leads to 2 bedrooms and 3/4 bath, easy to drop off the luggage before going downstairs to living room and kitchen, 1/2 bath and storage room. A separate shed can hold all of the firewood for the winter season. Note the tankless water heater. Roof is approximately 5 years old, per the seller. If you are into rereational cabins, do not miss seeing this one. Furniture is negotiable except for the family heirlooms. Big Bear Trail is also known as PINE KONE LANE which is located across from the West Ramp Parking lot. Follow the road north to the fallen tree and veer to the right over the slight dip in the road. Continue to the security sign and make a right, You will see the for sale sign. Road is mostly paved.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $762 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,957 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,195/yr (+$100/mo · 156.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 10 d/yr ≥83°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,424
• − Property taxes: −$762
• − Insurance: −$1,288
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,727
• − Management: −$1,727
• − Depreciation: −$7,491
• Taxable loss: −$5,836
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,401
• After-tax cash flow: $196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bear Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604230
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,222
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6588
• State rank: #289 of 517 in CA

Livability — Big Bear Lake

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #14284

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment C Housing C- Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,215
• Population (ZIP): 403

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Italian 6% Scottish 6%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.30%
• Current HPI: 318.6629
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-14.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $257,500 MRCAOR
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $257,500 CRMLS
• 2025-06-11 Listed $289,900 CRMLS
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $289,900 MRCAOR
• 2025-05-19 Listed $299,900 MRCAOR

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $762 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.