17922 Arlington St · Detroit, MI 48212

$40,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1951 3,049 sqft lot Est $42k · at est. ↓ 33% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOTIVATED SELLER - ALL OFFERS BEING CONSIDERED! 3 bd Bungalow home near transportation, great bones. Perfect rental or fix and flip. Owner occupied. Not accepting showings without an offer accepted! BATVAI

Key facts

• 3,049 sq ft lot
• Built 1951
• Listed 97 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $701 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.3% vs local median 10.0% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($38k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $36,400 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 75.10%
• DSCR: 4.34
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $41,952
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17888 Marx St	0.31mi	3/1.0	937 (+3%)	2mo	$34,000	$36	79
18128 Fleming St	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (+4%)	1mo	$21,500	$23	78
17139 Mackay St	0.41mi	3/1.0	896 (-2%)	1mo	$30,000	$33	77
17955 Charest St	0.35mi	3/1.0	880 (-4%)	4mo	$51,800	$59	74
18547 Anglin St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+10%)	6mo	$93,000	$93	66
18877 Fleming St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	870 (-5%)	3mo	$9,900	$11	64
19164 Dequindre St	0.67mi	3/1.5	918 (+1%)	8mo	$80,000	$87	59
17569 Orleans St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,002 (+10%)	6mo	$85,000	$85	58
18660 Klinger St	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	880 (-4%)	0mo	$21,000	$24	58
18654 Klinger St	0.58mi	3/2.0	860 (-6%)	7mo	$22,000	$26	54
17885 Binder St	0.68mi	3/1.0	844 (-8%)	6mo	$75,000	$89	51
17833 Binder St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+10%)	4mo	$46,000	$46	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 75.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $38,184
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.11×
• Total profit: $90,824
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48212

• Home prices YoY: -34.2%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,243 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $656/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $701

Break-even live

Break-even rent $356

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $724	-5% $712	+0% $701	+5% $690	+10% $678
Rent	-10% $603	-5% $652	+0% $701	+5% $750	+10% $799
Rate	-1.0pp $721	-0.5pp $711	base $701	+0.5pp $691	+1.0pp $680

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18084 Goddard St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.5	790	$1,050	$1.33	18d	1	0.15mi
18551 Saint Aubin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	962	$1,200	$1.25	18d	1	0.37mi
18629 Fleming St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	900	$1,150	$1.28	25d	1	0.38mi
18666 Joseph Campau St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	18d	1	0.44mi
18882 Marx St Highland Park, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	45d	1	0.58mi
13929 Arlington St Unit 2 Hamtramck, MI	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	45d	1	0.67mi
19360 Revere St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	25d	1	0.92mi
18662 Sunset St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	726	$1,250	$1.72	19d	1	0.92mi
19450 Norwood St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	6d	1	1.02mi
19694 Gallagher St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	16d	1	1.04mi
19930 Binder St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	18d	1	1.28mi
20255 Harned St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,374	$1.37	18d	1	1.37mi
19162 Conley St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	45d	1	1.41mi
18891 Moenart St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	870	$1,195	$1.37	18d	1	1.46mi
19450 Fenelon St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1062	$1,384	$1.30	6d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-10-13
   status Pending 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER - ALL OFFERS BEING CONSIDERED! 3 bd Bungalow home near transportation, great bones. Perfect rental or fix and flip. Owner occupied. Not accepting showings without an offer accepted! BATVAI

2. 2025-10-13
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER - ALL OFFERS BEING CONSIDERED! 3 bd Bungalow home near transportation, great bones. Perfect rental or fix and flip. Owner occupied. Not accepting showings without an offer accepted! BATVAI

3. 2025-07-08
   listed $40,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER - ALL OFFERS BEING CONSIDERED! 3 bd Bungalow home near transportation, great bones. Perfect rental or fix and flip. Owner occupied. Not accepting showings without an offer accepted! BATVAI

4. 2025-07-08
   listed $40,000 Active 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER - ALL OFFERS BEING CONSIDERED! 3 bd Bungalow home near transportation, great bones. Perfect rental or fix and flip. Owner occupied. Not accepting showings without an offer accepted! BATVAI

5. 2002-12-19
   historical
6. 2002-06-23
   listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$656
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,193
• − Management: −$1,193
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $8,270
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,985
• After-tax cash flow: $6,427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 43,384
• Household income: $38,186
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1175.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Asian 29% Black 19% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Subsaharan African 1% American 1%
• Foreign-born: 41%
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Other Indo-European 28% Arabic 28% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.41%
• Current HPI: 292.9126
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-33.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-13 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-13 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-07-08 Listed $40,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-08 Listed $40,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-12-19 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2002-06-23 Listed $59,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $656 · -54.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.