20838 Cedar Dr NW · Oak Grove, MN 55011

$229,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,430 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1920 4.80 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity knocks with this charming farmhouse set on 4.8 acres in Oak Grove! Perfect for a handyman or investor looking to build sweat equity, this property offers great potential in a highly visible location along a well-traveled road?ideal for a home-based business. The mostly open acreage is complemented by a beautiful mature oak grove in the back, providing a peaceful natural backdrop. Inside, you?ll find a unique and inviting layout featuring a stunning 2-story open kitchen with breakfast bar that flows up to a lofted living space above. The home also offers main floor laundry and a convenient main floor bedroom. Hardwood floors, along with updated windows and HVAC, add value and comfort as you bring your vision to life.

Key facts

• 4.8 acres
• Main floor laundry
• Mature oak grove

Tags

• 4.8 ACRES
• MATURE OAK GROVE
• 2-STORY OPEN KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• LOFTED LIVING SPACE
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking listed
• Utilities: Water from a private well; Private sewer; Natural gas fuel
• Home design: Residential property; One and one-half story layout; Main entry and living areas on main level
• Construction: Foundation: block and poured concrete
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 4.8 acres; Lot dimensions roughly 463 x 449 x 463 x 449

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (one on the main level, one on the upper level); Additional bedroom-sized rooms: Bedroom 2 on main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Washer; Main floor full bathroom; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer; Main level laundry room (11.5 x 5.10)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $308 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.8% in Oak Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#633 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, schools D-, amenities F.
• St. Francis Area Schools (rural): math 35% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #185 of 301 in MN (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $156k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.75%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-17,610
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $9,992
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55011

• Home prices YoY: -25.8%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,352 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,981/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,962

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 737-char remark

   Show marketing remark (737 chars)

   Opportunity knocks with this charming farmhouse set on 4.8 acres in Oak Grove! Perfect for a handyman or investor looking to build sweat equity, this property offers great potential in a highly visible location along a well-traveled road?ideal for a home-based business. The mostly open acreage is complemented by a beautiful mature oak grove in the back, providing a peaceful natural backdrop. Inside, you?ll find a unique and inviting layout featuring a stunning 2-story open kitchen with breakfast bar that flows up to a lofted living space above. The home also offers main floor laundry and a convenient main floor bedroom. Hardwood floors, along with updated windows and HVAC, add value and comfort as you bring your vision to life.

2. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 737-char remark

   Show marketing remark (737 chars)

   Opportunity knocks with this charming farmhouse set on 4.8 acres in Oak Grove! Perfect for a handyman or investor looking to build sweat equity, this property offers great potential in a highly visible location along a well-traveled road?ideal for a home-based business. The mostly open acreage is complemented by a beautiful mature oak grove in the back, providing a peaceful natural backdrop. Inside, you?ll find a unique and inviting layout featuring a stunning 2-story open kitchen with breakfast bar that flows up to a lofted living space above. The home also offers main floor laundry and a convenient main floor bedroom. Hardwood floors, along with updated windows and HVAC, add value and comfort as you bring your vision to life.

3. 2026-05-04
   listed $229,900 Active 737-char remark

   Show marketing remark (737 chars)

   Opportunity knocks with this charming farmhouse set on 4.8 acres in Oak Grove! Perfect for a handyman or investor looking to build sweat equity, this property offers great potential in a highly visible location along a well-traveled road?ideal for a home-based business. The mostly open acreage is complemented by a beautiful mature oak grove in the back, providing a peaceful natural backdrop. Inside, you?ll find a unique and inviting layout featuring a stunning 2-story open kitchen with breakfast bar that flows up to a lofted living space above. The home also offers main floor laundry and a convenient main floor bedroom. Hardwood floors, along with updated windows and HVAC, add value and comfort as you bring your vision to life.

4. 2026-05-04
   listed $229,900 Active 737-char remark

   Show marketing remark (737 chars)

   Opportunity knocks with this charming farmhouse set on 4.8 acres in Oak Grove! Perfect for a handyman or investor looking to build sweat equity, this property offers great potential in a highly visible location along a well-traveled road?ideal for a home-based business. The mostly open acreage is complemented by a beautiful mature oak grove in the back, providing a peaceful natural backdrop. Inside, you?ll find a unique and inviting layout featuring a stunning 2-story open kitchen with breakfast bar that flows up to a lofted living space above. The home also offers main floor laundry and a convenient main floor bedroom. Hardwood floors, along with updated windows and HVAC, add value and comfort as you bring your vision to life.

5. 2003-02-13
   soldstatus $156,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,981 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,981 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$2,981
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,258
• − Management: −$2,258
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable income: $12
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3
• After-tax cash flow: $3,696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Francis Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2733540
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $78,137
• Composite: 37.97/100
• National rank: #4300
• State rank: #185 of 301 in MN

Livability — Oak Grove

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #633
• US rank: #15150

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Grove, MN
• Population (ZIP): 11,025

Population outlook (Anoka County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 375,223 people
• By 2030: 387,850 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 407,239 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 417,541 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 448,447 · +19.5%
• By 2100: 464,954 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anoka

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+9.7 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.25%
• Current HPI: 265.1217
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+46.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — WWRA
• 2026-05-09 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Listed $229,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Listed $229,900 WWRA
• 2003-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $156,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,981 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.