3849 Swift Fox Rd · New Braunfels, TX 78130

$214,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · Land · 51 Days on market

Built 2024 4,791 sqft lot $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Oakridge- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests. Estimated COE March 2026.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-242 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (19.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.3% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Morningside El (math 44% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,680 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 810 students, 63% FRL); Canyon Middle (math 48% / reading 44%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,175 students, 47% FRL); Davenport H S (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 1,199 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 31% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Comal ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1931 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $166,415 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.82%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-55,058
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-86,356
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1931
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,664 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$321 /mo · $3,847/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $-242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,970

Max offer price $172,255

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-120	-5% $-181	+0% $-242	+5% $-303	+10% $-364
Rent	-10% $-373	-5% $-308	+0% $-242	+5% $-176	+10% $-110
Rate	-1.0pp $-134	-0.5pp $-187	base $-242	+0.5pp $-298	+1.0pp $-354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3738 Swift Fox Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,545	$1.22	16d	1	0.17mi
3729 Wentz Hill Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,595	$1.03	18d	1	0.20mi
754 Tower Hill Vw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,650	$1.18	4d	1	0.23mi
742 Tower Hill Vw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,545	$1.22	4d	1	0.23mi
3707 Moon Hill Rd Marion, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,550	$1.14	6d	1	0.26mi
3645 Swift Fox Rd New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,695	$1.06	45d	1	0.31mi
740 Bullsnake Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	45d	1	0.41mi
3967 Cherokee Blvd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,695	$1.19	0d	1	0.42mi
3967 Cherokee Blvd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,695	$1.19	26d	1	0.42mi
751 Bullsnake Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	26d	1	0.43mi
722 Killdeer Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$3,200	$2.51	45d	1	0.47mi
4171 River Legacy Marion, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,570	$1.20	26d	1	0.49mi
713 Killdeer Trl New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,700	$1.02	45d	1	0.50mi
4752 FM 482 New Braunfels, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0	775	$1,000	$1.29	6d	3	1.27mi
772 Vista Pkwy New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1536	$1,750	$1.14	26d	1	1.39mi
2700 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 3-3x New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1490	$1,611	$1.08	6d	1	1.44mi
2700 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 4x New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.5	1776	$1,780	$1.00	6d	1	1.44mi
2701 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 22 New Braunfels, TX	2.0	1.5	1301	$1,429	$1.10	22d	1	1.46mi
2964 Vista Pkwy New Braunfels, TX	2.0	2.0	1395	$2,250	$1.61	12d	1	1.46mi
272 Schmucks Rd New Braunfels, TX	2.0	1.0	908	$995	$1.10	26d	1	1.46mi
2744 Farm to Market Road 1044 New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,295	$1.10	14d	1	1.47mi
2744 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 1044 New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,295	$1.10	0d	1	1.47mi
2754 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 1044 New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,295	$1.10	0d	1	1.48mi
2754 Farm to Market Road 1044 New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,295	$1.10	19d	1	1.48mi
2754 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 2754 New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,295	$1.10	45d	1	1.48mi
2764 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 2764 New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,295	$1.18	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   price $214,999
3. 2026-04-09
   price $239,999
4. 2026-04-03
   price $248,999
5. 2026-03-28
   price $250,999
6. 2026-03-25
   price $251,999
7. 2026-03-24
   price $252,999
8. 2026-03-23
   status Back on Market
9. 2026-01-05
   status Pending
10. 2025-12-23
    price $222,999
11. 2025-12-15
    listed $229,999 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,847 · $321/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,934 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$88/yr (+$7/mo · 2.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,970
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,847
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,598
• − Management: −$1,598
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$6,673
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,602
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,302/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2912.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $214,999 LERA
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $239,999 LERA
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $248,999 LERA
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $250,999 LERA
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $251,999 LERA
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $252,999 LERA
• 2026-03-23 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-01-05 Pending — LERA
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $222,999 LERA
• 2025-12-15 Listed $229,999 LERA

Property tax history

+148.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,847 · +406.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.