338 Culp Rd · Rockefeller, PA 17801

$100,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,264 sqft · SingleFamily · 67 Days on market

Built 1983 17 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property is going to be sold at an onsite auction 4/4/2026 at 11:00 AM and is being sold with reserve. LISTED PRICE IS ONLY A SUGGESTED OPENING BID AND IS NOT INDICATIVE OF THE FINAL SALES PRICE WHICH WILL BE BY SELLER CONFIRMATION DAY OF AUCTION. Terms: Down payment of $25,000 required day of auction. Settlement on or before June 4, 2026. Transfer taxes to be paid by Buyer. Real Estate taxes shall be prorated. Open house dates: TUES. March 3rd, 1-3:00 PM & SAT. March 7th, 10:00AM-NOON. 16 +/- acres with a large 4-Bedroom 3-Bath house with 3-car garage in a beautiful location in sought after Irish Valley. The roperty is wooded and secluded, back a long driveway but not far from Sunbury, Selinsgrove, and Danville. Plenty of indoor and outdoor space to enjoy!

Key facts

• Secluded
• 16 acres
• Wooded

Tags

• 16 ACRES
• WOODED
• SECLUDED
• LONG DRIVEWAY
• INDOOR AND OUTDOOR SPACE

🔨 Auction listing. The $100,000 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $603,840 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-36k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Shikellamy SD (town): math 33% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #362 of 539 in PA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 9.1% of price.

Recommended offer $94,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.25% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -21.02%
• DSCR: 0.06
• GRM: 32.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $603,840
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
338 Culp Rd	0.00mi	4/3.0	3,264 (0%)	1mo	$605,000	$185	100
222 Randall Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,198 (-2%)	15mo	$395,000	$124	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -60.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.69×
• Total profit: $-286,418
• Equity at exit: $90,035

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.91×
• Total profit: $-492,157
• Equity at exit: $52,209

Cash invested: $169,075 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17801

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,534 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,167
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$755 /mo · $9,058/yr
• Insurance: −$252
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $-2,961

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,282

Max offer price $175,367

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,544	-5% $-2,752	+0% $-2,961	+5% $-3,170	+10% $-3,378
Rent	-10% $-3,082	-5% $-3,022	+0% $-2,961	+5% $-2,900	+10% $-2,840
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,657	-0.5pp $-2,807	base $-2,961	+0.5pp $-3,118	+1.0pp $-3,277

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,960
• Closing costs: $18,115
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Property is going to be sold at an onsite auction 4/4/2026 at 11:00 AM and is being sold with reserve. LISTED PRICE IS ONLY A SUGGESTED OPENING BID AND IS NOT INDICATIVE OF THE FINAL SALES PRICE WHICH WILL BE BY SELLER CONFIRMATION DAY OF AUCTION. Terms: Down payment of $25,000 required day of auction. Settlement on or before June 4, 2026. Transfer taxes to be paid by Buyer. Real Estate taxes shall be prorated. Open house dates: TUES. March 3rd, 1-3:00 PM & SAT. March 7th, 10:00AM-NOON. 16 +/- acres with a large 4-Bedroom 3-Bath house with 3-car garage in a beautiful location in sought after Irish Valley. The roperty is wooded and secluded, back a long driveway but not far from Sunbury, Selinsgrove, and Danville. Plenty of indoor and outdoor space to enjoy!

2. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-29
   listed $100,000 Active 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Property is going to be sold at an onsite auction 4/4/2026 at 11:00 AM and is being sold with reserve. LISTED PRICE IS ONLY A SUGGESTED OPENING BID AND IS NOT INDICATIVE OF THE FINAL SALES PRICE WHICH WILL BE BY SELLER CONFIRMATION DAY OF AUCTION. Terms: Down payment of $25,000 required day of auction. Settlement on or before June 4, 2026. Transfer taxes to be paid by Buyer. Real Estate taxes shall be prorated. Open house dates: TUES. March 3rd, 1-3:00 PM & SAT. March 7th, 10:00AM-NOON. 16 +/- acres with a large 4-Bedroom 3-Bath house with 3-car garage in a beautiful location in sought after Irish Valley. The roperty is wooded and secluded, back a long driveway but not far from Sunbury, Selinsgrove, and Danville. Plenty of indoor and outdoor space to enjoy!

4. 2026-01-29
   listed $100,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Property is going to be sold at an onsite auction 4/4/2026 at 11:00 AM and is being sold with reserve. LISTED PRICE IS ONLY A SUGGESTED OPENING BID AND IS NOT INDICATIVE OF THE FINAL SALES PRICE WHICH WILL BE BY SELLER CONFIRMATION DAY OF AUCTION. Terms: Down payment of $25,000 required day of auction. Settlement on or before June 4, 2026. Transfer taxes to be paid by Buyer. Real Estate taxes shall be prorated. Open house dates: TUES. March 3rd, 1-3:00 PM & SAT. March 7th, 10:00AM-NOON. 16 +/- acres with a large 4-Bedroom 3-Bath house with 3-car garage in a beautiful location in sought after Irish Valley. The roperty is wooded and secluded, back a long driveway but not far from Sunbury, Selinsgrove, and Danville. Plenty of indoor and outdoor space to enjoy!

5. 2017-05-01
   soldstatus $264,000 513-char remark

   Show marketing remark (513 chars)

   As far as the eye can see. .. .. and what a view to see! This contemporary 2 story and nearly 17 acres is the perfect setting not too far from town. Spacious eat in kitchen, Dining room, Great room, rec room, SUN room. .. .tons of closet space and 3 full baths. .. .also plenty of room for the ''toys'' and equipment in the 3 car garage and 20 x 24 storage barn! Seller is offering $1000 flooring concession. All that and triple paned windows to make it energy efficient too! Rare find in Rockefeller township.

6. 2016-05-16
   listed $289,900 513-char remark

   Show marketing remark (513 chars)

   As far as the eye can see. .. .. and what a view to see! This contemporary 2 story and nearly 17 acres is the perfect setting not too far from town. Spacious eat in kitchen, Dining room, Great room, rec room, SUN room. .. .tons of closet space and 3 full baths. .. .also plenty of room for the ''toys'' and equipment in the 3 car garage and 20 x 24 storage barn! Seller is offering $1000 flooring concession. All that and triple paned windows to make it energy efficient too! Rare find in Rockefeller township.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,409
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,824
• − Property taxes: −$9,058
• − Insurance: −$3,019
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,473
• − Management: −$1,473
• − Depreciation: −$17,566
• Taxable loss: −$48,004
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,521
• After-tax cash flow: $-24,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shikellamy SD
• NCES district ID: 4221540
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $41,227
• Composite: 33.6/100
• National rank: #5415
• State rank: #362 of 539 in PA

Livability — Rockefeller

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,229

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Polish 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.78%
• Current HPI: 158.7449
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-65.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — CSVBR
• 2026-04-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $100,000 CSVBR
• 2017-05-01 Sold (MLS) $264,000 CSVBR
• 2016-05-16 Listed $289,900 CSVBR