BAILEY Plan · New Fairview, TX 76247

$313,990

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,875 sqft · SingleFamily · 121 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Bailey is a spacious single-story home offering approx. 1,883 sq. ft. of living space with 5 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. A welcoming front porch and foyer lead into an open-concept layout that brings the kitchen, dining area, and family room together into one bright, connected space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, a centrally located sink overlooking the main living areas, and a walk-in pantry for added storage and convenience. The private primary suite is situated at the rear of the home and includes a large walk-in closet and a full bath. Four additional bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged throughout the layout, each with its own closet and easy access to the secondary bathroom-making this home ideal for larger households, multigenerational living, guests, or a home office setup. A dedicated laundry room, linen storage, and direct access to the two-car garage add everyday functionality. A rear stoop completes the design, offering a simple outdoor retreat. With its generous bedroom count and open living spaces, the Bailey provides versatile and comfortable living for a variety of needs. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades, and standard features will vary in each community and may change without notice. May include options, elevations, and upgrades (such as patio covers, front porches, stone options, and lot prem

Key facts

• Front porch
• Large walk-in closet
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $313,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $331,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $314k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-238 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.5% in New Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#901 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 1498 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $260,298 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.07%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,990
• List price: $313,990
• Delta: -5.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16608 Laguna Vista St	0.18mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,827 (-3%)	0mo	$332,630	$182	82
16516 Laguna St	0.23mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (-2%)	0mo	$331,990	$181	80
16612 Laguna Vista St	0.18mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,799 (-4%)	1mo	$343,610	$191	79
16572 Hudson Prairie Way	0.21mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,799 (-4%)	1mo	$339,600	$189	78
16624 Port Arthur Pl	0.35mi	5/2.0	1,812 (-3%)	1mo	$303,990	$168	77
16641 Laguna Vista St	0.20mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-5%)	0mo	$336,630	$189	77
16449 Hudson Prairie Way	0.11mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,025 (+8%)	0mo	$336,990	$166	76
16581 Port Arthur Pl	0.25mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-5%)	1mo	$344,550	$194	74
16573 Hudson Prairie Way	0.20mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,038 (+9%)	0mo	$346,990	$170	71
16645 Geskey Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,818 (-3%)	0mo	$315,000	$173	65
16620 Port Arthur Pl	0.35mi	5/3.0	2,129 (+14%)	1mo	$313,990	$147	56
16409 Marinette Ct	0.74mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (-12%)	1mo	$299,999	$182	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-76,541
• Equity at exit: $49,501

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-115,486
• Equity at exit: $28,704

Cash invested: $92,957 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76247

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 1498
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,603 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,741
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$415 /mo · $4,980/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $-238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,904

Max offer price $297,559

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-9	-5% $-123	+0% $-238	+5% $-353	+10% $-467
Rent	-10% $-444	-5% $-341	+0% $-238	+5% $-135	+10% $-32
Rate	-1.0pp $-71	-0.5pp $-154	base $-238	+0.5pp $-324	+1.0pp $-411

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,998
• Closing costs: $9,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
233 Cal Ford Dr Northlake, TX	5.0	2.0	1883	$2,340	$1.24	44d	1	0.25mi
229 Cal Ford Dr Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$2,300	$1.40	22d	1	0.25mi
16608 Port Arthur Pl Northlake, TX	5.0	3.0	2339	$2,600	$1.11	11d	1	0.32mi
16616 Port Arthur Pl Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1659	$2,395	$1.44	2d	1	0.33mi
829 Loomis Trl Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2091	$2,450	$1.17	44d	1	0.37mi
708 Basteen Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1728	$2,300	$1.33	12d	1	0.40mi
16428 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1738	$2,500	$1.44	44d	1	0.43mi
16729 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,325	$1.27	3d	1	0.70mi
16020 Rein Ave Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2358	$2,355	$1.00	13d	1	0.98mi
1020 Valerian Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2144	$2,325	$1.08	44d	1	1.09mi
1045 Knightly Ln Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2388	$2,500	$1.05	44d	1	1.12mi
1201 Viscount St Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	1941	$2,700	$1.39	13d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $313,990 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $313,990 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $313,990 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $313,990 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $313,990 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $313,990 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $313,990 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $313,990 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $313,990 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $313,990 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $313,990 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,990 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,990 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-04-28
    price $310,990 1498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1498 chars)

    The Bailey is a spacious single-story home offering approx. 1,883 sq. ft. of living space with 5 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. A welcoming front porch and foyer lead into an open-concept layout that brings the kitchen, dining area, and family room together into one bright, connected space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, a centrally located sink overlooking the main living areas, and a walk-in pantry for added storage and convenience. The private primary suite is situated at the rear of the home and includes a large walk-in closet and a full bath. Four additional bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged throughout the layout, each with its own closet and easy access to the secondary bathroom-making this home ideal for larger households, multigenerational living, guests, or a home office setup. A dedicated laundry room, linen storage, and direct access to the two-car garage add everyday functionality. A rear stoop completes the design, offering a simple outdoor retreat. With its generous bedroom count and open living spaces, the Bailey provides versatile and comfortable living for a variety of needs. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades, and standard features will vary in each community and may change without notice. May include options, elevations, and upgrades (such as patio covers, front porches, stone options, and lot prem

15. 2026-04-14
    price $305,990 1498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1498 chars)

    The Bailey is a spacious single-story home offering approx. 1,883 sq. ft. of living space with 5 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. A welcoming front porch and foyer lead into an open-concept layout that brings the kitchen, dining area, and family room together into one bright, connected space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, a centrally located sink overlooking the main living areas, and a walk-in pantry for added storage and convenience. The private primary suite is situated at the rear of the home and includes a large walk-in closet and a full bath. Four additional bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged throughout the layout, each with its own closet and easy access to the secondary bathroom-making this home ideal for larger households, multigenerational living, guests, or a home office setup. A dedicated laundry room, linen storage, and direct access to the two-car garage add everyday functionality. A rear stoop completes the design, offering a simple outdoor retreat. With its generous bedroom count and open living spaces, the Bailey provides versatile and comfortable living for a variety of needs. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades, and standard features will vary in each community and may change without notice. May include options, elevations, and upgrades (such as patio covers, front porches, stone options, and lot prem

16. 2026-03-24
    price $301,990 1498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1498 chars)

    The Bailey is a spacious single-story home offering approx. 1,883 sq. ft. of living space with 5 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. A welcoming front porch and foyer lead into an open-concept layout that brings the kitchen, dining area, and family room together into one bright, connected space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, a centrally located sink overlooking the main living areas, and a walk-in pantry for added storage and convenience. The private primary suite is situated at the rear of the home and includes a large walk-in closet and a full bath. Four additional bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged throughout the layout, each with its own closet and easy access to the secondary bathroom-making this home ideal for larger households, multigenerational living, guests, or a home office setup. A dedicated laundry room, linen storage, and direct access to the two-car garage add everyday functionality. A rear stoop completes the design, offering a simple outdoor retreat. With its generous bedroom count and open living spaces, the Bailey provides versatile and comfortable living for a variety of needs. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades, and standard features will vary in each community and may change without notice. May include options, elevations, and upgrades (such as patio covers, front porches, stone options, and lot prem

17. 2026-02-17
    listed $299,990 Active 1498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1498 chars)

    The Bailey is a spacious single-story home offering approx. 1,883 sq. ft. of living space with 5 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. A welcoming front porch and foyer lead into an open-concept layout that brings the kitchen, dining area, and family room together into one bright, connected space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, a centrally located sink overlooking the main living areas, and a walk-in pantry for added storage and convenience. The private primary suite is situated at the rear of the home and includes a large walk-in closet and a full bath. Four additional bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged throughout the layout, each with its own closet and easy access to the secondary bathroom-making this home ideal for larger households, multigenerational living, guests, or a home office setup. A dedicated laundry room, linen storage, and direct access to the two-car garage add everyday functionality. A rear stoop completes the design, offering a simple outdoor retreat. With its generous bedroom count and open living spaces, the Bailey provides versatile and comfortable living for a variety of needs. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades, and standard features will vary in each community and may change without notice. May include options, elevations, and upgrades (such as patio covers, front porches, stone options, and lot prem

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,597
• − Property taxes: −$4,980
• − Insurance: −$1,660
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,499
• − Management: −$2,499
• − Depreciation: −$9,658
• Taxable loss: −$8,656
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,077
• After-tax cash flow: $-778/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Bailey Plan is a well-maintained single-story home with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout and is ready for a fresh paint job and landscaping improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to stainless steel appliances can enhance the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizing the bathroom fixtures can improve the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Both HVAC system — Upgrading the HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and property value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to stainless steel appliances can enhance the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizing the bathroom fixtures can improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both HVAC system — Upgrading the HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and property value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Fairview

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #901
• US rank: #16172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,726
• Household income: $124,383
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 91.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.16%
• Current HPI: 274.368
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.46%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $310,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $305,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $301,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Listed $299,990 Zillow