405 County Road 437 · Chelsea, AL 35147

$249,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1940 0.94 ac lot $195/sqft · 20% below area Est $312k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 1940's bungalow is ready for her new owner! Nestled on a large, wooded lot. .. this home has a welcoming front porch, beautiful finishes, a cozy kitchen, and so much more!! Zoned for Chelsea schools and close to EVERYTHING! You will want to be sure that this home is on your list to see!!

Key facts

• 0.94 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($676/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.1% in Chelsea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#52 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chelsea Park Elementary School (math 46% / reading 68%, grade C+, #76 of 627 statewide, top 13%, 867 students, 31% FRL); Chelsea Middle School (math 26% / reading 63%, grade D, #39 of 257 statewide, top 16%, 951 students, 28% FRL); Chelsea High School (math 43% / reading 42%, grade F, #27 of 305 statewide, top 9%, 1,400 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,242 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.11%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,805
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -20.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
301 Willoughby Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+8%)	2mo	$287,900	$209	59
297 Willoughby Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+8%)	3mo	$289,900	$211	58
288 Willoughby Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+8%)	4mo	$287,400	$209	57
281 Willoughby Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+8%)	7mo	$295,400	$215	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.7% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $4,527
• Equity at exit: $81,094

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $50,688
• Equity at exit: $104,804

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35147

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,102 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,544/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,031

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $197	-5% $127	+0% $56	+5% $-14	+10% $-85
Rent	-10% $-110	-5% $-27	+0% $56	+5% $139	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $182	-0.5pp $120	base $56	+0.5pp $-8	+1.0pp $-74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
173 Chelsea Park Rd Chelsea, AL	3.0	2.0	1694	$2,070	$1.22	5d	1	0.69mi
464 Crossbridge Rd Chelsea, AL	4.0	2.5	1858	$2,175	$1.17	13d	1	0.74mi
224 Park Crest Run Chelsea, AL	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,195	$1.24	5d	1	0.92mi
170 Sharpe St Sterrett, AL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,935	$1.37	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-03-16
    listed $249,000 Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    This 1940's bungalow is ready for her new owner! Nestled on a large, wooded lot. .. this home has a welcoming front porch, beautiful finishes, a cozy kitchen, and so much more!! Zoned for Chelsea schools and close to EVERYTHING! You will want to be sure that this home is on your list to see!!

18. 2026-03-04
    historical $249,000 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    This 1940's bungalow is ready for her new owner! Nestled on a large, wooded lot. .. this home has a welcoming front porch, beautiful finishes, a cozy kitchen, and so much more!! Zoned for Chelsea schools and close to EVERYTHING! You will want to be sure that this home is on your list to see!!

19. 2021-09-02
    soldstatus $235,000
20. 2008-06-04
    soldstatus $72,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,544 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,544 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,229
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$1,544
• − Insurance: −$2,042
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,018
• − Management: −$2,018
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$3,585
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$860
• After-tax cash flow: $1,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Chelsea

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #8363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chelsea, AL
• City population: 15,068
• Population (ZIP): 6,971

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 10% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• Current HPI: 200.0103
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+245.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $249,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-04 Coming Soon $249,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2008-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,544 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.